The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Well, it would suprise me if anyone researching the AIM didn't know about its dividend paying shares.
Get away from the mindset of being a shareholder to a mindset of considering an investment. Would we invest now.?
If I had 5K,10K, 50K or whatever would I invest in DX now?. That's a decision we all would make.
I can understand whe people wouldn't... just a few considerations of the top of my head...
It's a low margin, highly competitive marketplace that won't change
Its profitable yes... but the dividend is pretty low and you have to invest a fair whack to make it worth while
There are to many shares in issue
Projections are positive but nothing to raise an eyebrow
It's a new unproven board and a chequered history of corprate governence
The profitable aspect of the business relies on consumer spending primarily and that is unpredicatable at best.
There are substantial marco economic risks
There is no real history of SP growth over the past three years and 36p has been the ceiling
Is there better value out there
There are pros of course but it doesn't surpise me that aren't many buyers. But who know what the share price will do. I'm no authority. !!
I thought and think it's because the share is not well known. But if all know about it and they are not buying it's a real mystery. Where are the Sherlock Holmes, Poirot, Ms Marple, etc when we need them?
I think it's a different question. Anyone doing reasonable research on the AIM should know about DX. It's a dividend paying share and their aren't many on the AIM. The question is why aren't they buying ?
I very much welcome the DM article. I hope a few more articles and media comments about the DX start coming up... The more the better...Ramping or otherwise... The share badly needs and deserves attention and to be known... Oh, do I need to point do your own research?
Absolutely Pianista. But as every marketing professional will tell you, it's the headline that grabs the attention and to imply you'll make a lot of money investing in DX without any context or balance is wrong on every level. The article hasn't brought a multitude of buyers to date so perhaps the savvy private investor has seen it for what I think it probably is.... blatant ramping.!
Yeah pianista, I tried to think of my own in the middle of long journey in a light hearted way.!
"Invest in the Oxford Cookie company to make a fortune"
"Invest in Salisbury Munitions Ltd to make a killing"
I'd agree with both you. But the article is written by "this is money" who frame themselves as a guide to money and investing and would be used for research so to provide an overtly positive picture is really quite negligent I would suggest.!
To be honest, the bit about "making a packet" is just poetic licence - they couldn't resist the pun when referring to a "parcels" company.
However, I wouldn't argue with their verdict that the "outlook is upbeat" and the "shares are undervalued", seeing as I've gone with upper 30s by the end of this year, which represents a 20% upside.
Yes of course email. Any investment is a risk but there shouldn't be bad faith or ignorance in reporting. This is the industry they work in every day. They research and know better than that surely. !They can't just provide one side of the story.The only point I am making is the industry and by that I mean Media within it has a responsibility to act responsibly and personally I don't feel they do. That article is in my view way to positive and misleading. It's telling people to invest in DX to make a packet. That's it. If I'd have said that people would receive it as blatant ramping but if it is a credible source that's ok. I agree Individuals do have responsibilty to research and check information and form their opinion but they should be doing so when information presented from what are perceived credible sources is balanced.
I'm not criticising the individual, far from it. The people in positions of influence should act responsibily and telling people to invest in DX to make a packet is in my view isn't.
Portswigger,
Any investment is a risk. It's up to the investor to do his/her own research not to journalists to do them for you... I agree with you that often there's lack of balance and even ignorance and bad faith in some reporting - as sometimes there are competent reports - any investor who does not know that investing is risky and any recommendation should be checked- should stay a thousand miles away from any investing
Well, we'll all be grateful if the article generates some growth. But unlikely and quite alot of sells today.
For me the article exemplifies everything that is wrong in the media that surrounds share buying. The aticle headline is sensationalist.
"invest in parcels expert DX if you want to make a packet" Completely biased from a seemingly credible souce ,no putting a warning that "making a packet may not actually be the reality". No mention of possible downsides.
It's alright tipping a share as a buy but in my view fundimentally wrong to say you'll make a packet without any balance in the article.
The private investor believes it but there is no guarantee of anything.!!. Is it any wonder most private investors lose money.
Hi all,are we expecting a dividend this year.
That should help pushing up sp
Https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-12326611/MIDAS-SHARE-TIPS-Invest-parcels-expert-DX-Group-want-make-packet.html?ico=mol_desktop_money-newtab&molReferrerUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fmoney%2Findex.html&_ga=2.165365564.226142082.1690061300-829466088.1679172563&_gl=1*1q6slmp*_ga*ODI5NDY2MDg4LjE2NzkxNzI1NjM.*_ga_XE0XLFFF16*MTY5MDA2MTI5OS4yNC4xLjE2OTAwNjEzMTQuMC4wLjA.
Quite dramatic examples portswigger but no less dramatic than an unexpected worldwide health pandemic that killed hundreds of thousands of people, caused people to lose their livelihoods and caused economic and stock market turmoil around the world that is still being felt. Who'd have thought that in the 21st Century.!
As we all know broker forecasts are based on financial assumptions and projections but ultimately it's just one of many factors that affect people wanting to buy their shares. In my view not completely a waste of time but I agree target share prices are just an arbitary figure plucked from nowhere and has no basis in reality.
Succinctly put, Ports! Bravo.
The AIM is such a different animal and what I have observed os that broker forecasts rarely fructify.
When the do, it's so far down the line that PIs like me have long forgotten what the forecast was.
Patience is indeed the mother of all virtues!
Thanks for posting Tep. I know I have said this before and I know other posters put quite a bit of faith in Broker forecasts and disagree with me but broker forecasts/sp targets make my blood boil and are one of the major reasons for stock market losses by private investors. Seemingly from a credible source there is no basis is in fact, it's unknowable, a figment of the writers imagination.
Weren't the brokers forecasting 50P plus before the takeover of Tuffnells remnants, where's the consideration of the annualised value of 32M. Where's the justification.
I'll set a target price of £1.50. Is that any less credible? I'll base it on the Ukraine war ending in a couple of months.. the major players sit round a table... sort out their differences.....shake hands... everything is rosy in the garden. The climate devastation turns out to be a yearly blip.The world economy recovers..inflation falls, consumer spending increases, DX grow substantially and in 5 years we hit £1.50 or........
I set a target price of 3p based on the Ukraine war turns nuclear and leads to world war three. Climate change is far worse than we thought and leads to crop devastation, world wide economic collapse and of the stock markets.
Unlikely absolutely... possible yes, and no less credible than steady growth year after year..
That's why I think forecasts are futile and are best ignored because anything can happen at any time.
Ports - I think corporate communications is a big factor, given the need to shake off the spectre of the prolonged suspension once and for all. To me the RNS didn’t cut the mustard in this respect – it just came across as a bit lacklustre. It felt like it wasn’t telling us anything we didn’t already know., hence in theory already priced in.
Better broker engagement and buy backs may also help, but in the end, it may need a buyer. So depending on the patience of the major shareholders, who I think own over 70% of the shares, maybe it’s time - nearly 6 years out from the company’s rescue in 2017 - for the company to show a little leg?
Yes, expected update... I am not sure new depots, Tuffnels, and all other stuff have yet sunk in or had time to weigh in... I strongly guess it will be from the next update on we will start getting some lovely surprises. So just a bit more patience for now -
It's a fair comment Pianista...... but what can DX do. The SP is not their responsibility. The capital allocation policy was a result of Gatemore's interference so I would suggest they are happy with that. The new board have read the room a little better and are just getting on with it.
We should all know buy now that we are not going to get a multitude of PI's investing in DX... Maybe we will see some further II' investment but that probably won't do much.A share buyback strategy may help in SP growth but that isn't a given especially with the economic headwinds and landscape we are fighting against. I just think the Macro negativity far outweighs and micro positivity and the markets are more realistic than we give them credit for. Taking onboard the remnants of Tuffnells has changed the landscape for DX and also for us. It's just become a longer play. Holding 0.00001% of the company or whatever is a very different consideration to those who hold 3%+
Back in late 2021, when the SP was broadly in the low 30s (pre-governance fiasco), Gatemore (c20% shareholder) got so frustrated by DX’s “dislocated value” - which they put down to “mismanagement across multiple areas, including corporate messaging and transparency, audit process, broker engagement, and the lack of return of capital to shareholders” – that they muscled their way onto the board.
Within a year, they’d resigned from the board, as if to say “job done”.
But now, nearly 2 years later, and despite all the improved financial metrics, the SP is still languishing in the low 30s. So we’ve stood still, basically.
If there's no material improvement by the end of the year, I suspect Gatemore will again start to agitate for the company to find ways to realise its full value.
Yep Stemis and on the face of it DX could be considered undervalued. But it isn't. Theory means nothing on the Stockmarket. A very muted response to a as expected update.Reading between the lines I think there would be no issue in confirming the 1p dividend which is enough for me for the time being.
But I am a little underwhelmed. 10% growth is about the minimum I would have expected with the depot openings and the benefits of the localised depot sales teams since covid etc. Probably a reflection of the current economic situation. Similarly, It looks like it's tough margin wise if they are looking at only getting to 7.5% + within a couple of years.
It really reinforces my view that this is 3 year plus play.
Fundimentally though this is about the share price and the dynamics that move it and figures simply don't do it.There are to many shares in issue so personally I'll be looking for a progressive dividend policy and a share buy back strategy really to keep me interested for any great length of time.
Steady as she goes, cash is impressive as always!
Not sure if I'm confusing companies, but wasn't the 1p dividend due Sep 23?
Decent trading upgrade which has pushed FinCap to marginally increase forecast for the year finished. Cash now £37.6m and adjusted earnings £24.2m. At 32p that puts DX on a cash adjusted P/E of 6.9 !
58p would be 12 x cash adjusted earnings for 2023/4