The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
How is it possible for us to have, quote, "...developed and commissioned the world’s most advanced Cashew nut processing plant, capable of producing 3.5 million kilograms of Cashew Kernel products each year.", whilst at the same time, quote, "other new cashew processors in our region using this new off the shelf technology shelling and peeling systems are also achieving excellent results."?
Our facility is the world’s most advanced, yet the neighbours without the most advanced are achieving excellent results.
They've, in effect, bought themselves another 6 months with today's RNS, as don't expect any meaningful updates in the July quarter annoucement. That will just be the parts have arrived and are now being installed and we're ready to go next week type of announcement.
Finally, I hope the 'highly credentialled cashew processing consultant' doesn't have a penchant for electing to receive shares in lieu of remuneration. They could, of course, use their wage to buy on the open market though - which would be most welcome.
WH Ireland retain 8p target.
"With palm oil volumes well ahead of the prior year, we view DKL’s palm oil business as well on track for a good outturn this year and look forward to further updates as the year goes on. With two fully invested projects, we view DKL as possessing a strong and profitable business in its palm oil operation, with potential for significant further growth as its recently commissioned cashew operation comes on stream. Leaving our forecasts unchanged this morning, we highlight the fact that the cashew project is expected to be loss making in FY24E, but this should reverse in FY25E as production improves – delivering a significant swing in profitability at group level."
They are also - crucially - forecasting Net Debt continuing to fall, with the broad shoulders of the palm oil business having to sustain the (in effect) mothballed cashew facility.
2021
-€31.4m
2022
-€29.8m
2023 (E)
-€28.4m
2024 (E)
-€26.5m
Source: WH Ireland estimates.
FKI. One thing that jumps out to me is the marginal difference in price between the peeled and the unpeeled cashews. Maybe we should be flogging the unpeeled until June.
Fallingknife, you are dead right about the 76.8%, it should read -76.8%, this is an appalling error, but fortunately it does only relate to inventory and the purchase of cashews, so the actual figures are not too alarming.
Another slightly underwhelming monthly update to add to the pile but at least this time the jam promised is backed up with action following Lincoln’s purchases a few weeks back - this strongly implies mgmt fully expect the cashew to start delivering.
Been a painful hold but feel like we’re going to start to see some returns soon(ish)
So now the Cashews are Q3 and a declining extraction rate but the DKL playbook is alive and well as early guidance (last 12 days projection presumably!) says it will improve.
They have also incorrectly stated the change in the RCN purchased and the closing inventory in the RNS. The RCN purchased went from 820t to 190t yet the change is stated as 76.8% which clearly means an INCREASE and ditto with the closing inventory. Their sloppiness and lack of attention to detail for a publicly quoted company is staggering. They might be best correcting it!
Morning j/k, thanks for tackling the ostrich mentality on here where e have an SP that is gone from 20p on the ask to 1.5p and any questioning of the SP/Performance/Board then you are committing heresy and expecting it to go bust tomorrow. The hard of thinking are starting to thrive as there is more than one of them.
Conman, you should also realise that at times there has been a tendency to rush out good news and delay bad news. Long term holders have a very long memory when it comes to DKL.
The 10th of the month has become a de facto date for monthly results, but other things affect that such as weekends and bank holidays. Also, they seem to favour Tuesdays and Thursdays for some reason.
The board have been asked on numerous occasions to release and stick to an RNS calendar, but they refuse to do so. The reason being that the blue chips favour the bigger companies for auditing, so that's fair enough for things like the accounts, but there is zero reason why we couldn't have a calendar for the year ahead noting which days the monthly figures will be released.
There does need to be more accountability on this.
Chris you should know by now that unless results are released on 10th each month, some people on here immediately feel that the company is going bust.
Why? Monthly results haven't been released as early as the 10th since October - the 10th-12th is the standard range now with the occasional late one on the 13th.
Afternoon jk. Good points and I hope you are a good bellweather for this. The fact that they didnt release the CPO numbers today on the infamous 10th is either a good sign ( production up again or Cashews ramping up with functioning equipment ) or an extremely bad sign where we get double whammied on both counts or especially CPO and Lincoln and co are sitting on it in the hope"the last 12 days..... " wheeze can be wheeled out again. Fingers xd.
Morning Fk1, yes as we've found to our cost, this is one of the key issues with DKL and holders who wish to just bail out at any cost.
It all goes back to impatience on the one hand - who can blame them - and lack of news flow on the other, mixed in with a dollop of general incompetence.
Although, I'm more optimistic about DKL than I have been for some time.
Lincoln's buy-in seems to have stopped the rot. The bounce was short lived after profit taking and zero news flow, but the message it sent to the market speaks much higher volumes than the popular puff pieces ever could. It has been noted that said puff pieces have been conspicuous by their absence in recent times unfortunately, but we'll gloss over that.
We told the board to focus on FFB's and I believe we've now had 12 or 13 consecutive months of growth in that department, albeit from a bad harvest the year before, so we hope that growth continues. CPO prices are now at 10-15 year highs if we ignore the pandemic spike. The local prices lag somewhat, but they will catch up at some point.
Still no improvement on the 60k vs. 70k tonnes issue, but beggars can't be choosers.
For Lincoln to put his money where his mouth is (and to 'lead from the front' as Zak Mir noted) says to me that he "sees a lot of value" at 1.3p - even though he actually said that at 3.65p.
I note that it's a year since it was announced that Aristide Achy Brou, a non-executive director, elected to receive shares in Dekel rather than cash for all remuneration that became due for the period 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2022. In the small print of that RNS, it was noted that "Aristide Achy Brou has also elected to receive his entire remuneration in shares for the 2023 calendar year." So, I assume there will be no need to RNS that for this year? If so, then that may go unnoticed in terms of the SP.
Having said that, with a ridicuously low market cap and returning to Lincoln's trades, on that basis and seeing as there's nothing else to go, then perhaps better times cannot be far away?
Therefore, I'm changing my opinion from weak buy to strong buy. :)
On the back of fairly decent sized trades. As prescient selling almost always leads to a fall in DKL's sp then we can but hope that prescient buying leads to a rise when some arrives.
Indeed Chris. Further confidence on the cash position - Company is sat on circa 1,700 tonnes of Palm oil, price is increasing, good decision to hold this back. Could be worth around £1.3m in revenue. It's actually a real shame the cashews are lagging, not just because of the obvious SP impacts, but the Palm oil business is flying right now if you look at the data. Company should be booming, but this is holding us back.
I know we've seen recently that int. prices don't correlate exactly with local prices but there is certainly positive correlation over the medium term. Besides the six month spike in late 2021 through 2022 we're now seeing 10 year highs:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/palm-oil
Hence the price recovery? Though the bid /ask suggests a sale due to the timestamp.
Welcome to the club of the downtrodden - recovery from what? The share price has been in near continual decline sice Feb 2014, when the share value was 17p. At least you can only lose 2p per share, so hats off to you. The word "recovery" is not appropriate here yet - "stop the rot", possibly. It's good to dream - at some point there will either be a turnround, or receivership. It's a flip of the coin. Tails you lose, heads you win. Tails I lose, heads I lose less.
Faz. I wish my average was 2
Looks like a sell to me based on the published trades and cancelled trades, but who really knows. Hopefully it's a buy!
I would like to average down after buying at 2p but I'm not convinced we're on the road to recovery yet.
Morning Rugs. Probably a buy which explains the rise. Wonder will the cashew update provide a 😮 surprise?
So, is it finally a buy or a sale. ?
1.30 paid there
This share was tipped heavily by Alan Green, the kiss of death on most investments, big advocate of Bidstack. He tipped it on Vox Podcast with James Waite and I have been loosely following them since. Quite hilarious really, at the time I think they were 2.6p, October last year, today 1.13p, I don't know how he picks them!
If they go under 1p (which wouldn't surprise me) I might have a flutter. It's no more than gambling really though.
Afternoon Rugs. That is something that has been needed since the beginning but unfortunately it has been beyond the compass of our hapless board. Given their incompetence it is most likely more delays and excuses are on the way instead of actually dealing with issues. They stumble from one disaster to another while telling the market the last 10 days have been encouraging.
Down 8% today making even a 25% recovery in the SP bringing us back to just above the recent all time low. You would think when the SP is so driven down by our incompetent Board that even a dead cat bounce shouldn't be too big a task but sadly beyond them. I wonder what the recent investor thinks as even he is down 10% on his investment . If he read this board he would know what a bunch of clowns we have in charge of operations.
I doubt the 400,000 trade is a sell as I can buy at 1.19 and only sell at 1.155
We really do need some good news on cashews asap.