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Bonkers99 "Can anyone float an expected NPV number for the PEA?"
Outsiders cannot, No. But here are some pointers.
The 2017 PEA* showed an NPV of $130.5m assuming a tin price of $10/lb around $22,000 per tonne.
• Source:- Https://minedocs.com/21/South-Crofty-PEA-02162017.pdf
In the sensitivity analysis (p22) it showed that if the tin price rose to $11/lb around $24,200/tonne- a 10% increase- the NPV rose to $188.1m i.e. an increase in NPV of 44%. i.e. highly sensitive.
Now the tin price is $32,320/ tonne or 47% up on the 2017 central estimate. All other things being equal, which they are not, would suggest an adjusted NPV of around $400m.
Much has changed since 2017 including the cost of building and running the plant, interest rates and thus the discount factor for the NPV calculation. So the $400m appears to need to be adjusted down considerably.
However there are also a number of other positive changes.
Because the indicated and inferred resources have increased very significantly it is reasonable to assume mine life has increased or the throughput could be increased. This would move the NPV up. See below***
Furthermore it looks as if the cut-off grade could be reduced as XRT ore sorters have been trialed by CUSN with very encouraging results. This would help to further increase the resources and boost the NPV. The same machines are likely to reduce the size of the plant required to process the ore- helping to reduce initial capex and opex – which also would help the NPV upwards.
And the discovery of the Wide Formation and Great Flat Lode Splay may well add to the resources, when fully assessed, which again would either enable CUSN to increase throughput or extend the mine life, both of which are likely to enhance NPV.
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***In the 2017 PEA the indicated and inferred resources were for the lower & upper mine respectively :
Indicated 1660+257 kt Inferred 738 +464kt
Total 2,398 + 721kt =3,119 kt
Indicated and Inferred at 5/2/24 for the upper and lower mines
Were :-
Indicated 2,896 kt +260 kt Inferred 2,626 kt + 465kt
Total 5,522 kt + 725kt = 6,247 kt
A significant 100% uplift, with the likelihood of more to come from the Wide Formation and GFL Splay.
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Not long to wait for the actual figures in a new PEA. Good Luck everyone.
Rooky,
My view is that everyone knows this has been and will continue to be a long play.
In the current economic climate, investors are looking ING for quick returns, so this is not attractive no matter how undervalued current investors think it might be.
New investors only likely to jump in on news and likely happy to pay higher for more certainty knowing further gains can be made.
Meanwhile everything is going to plan and looking good. I'm happy now at my target to hold and wait
Can anyone float an expected NPV number for the PEA?
Regardless how the market reacts now I've just topped up and will wait till the"tin and the other metals mentioned start leaving the mine" as you're saying. You can't lose here, imho.
Rooky
Very much agree with you .
Cavendish released a brokers note this morning reiterating that the sum of the parts valuation of CUSN is 25p, so should see some healthy upside on sp
This share is so far under the radar, that you wonder is a thick seam of gold, and a several Cullinan size diamonds were found, the SP would still not move.
I appreciate that when (not if) tin and the other metals mentioned start leaving the mine, the SP will zoom upward, so not worried, just somewhat puzzled, as surely now is the time to get into this share.
If I had a few quid spare, I would be increasing my current holding.
RNS out...
Looks positive on first review.
Good luck all.
Tin price looking strong.
What news is it going to take to push us north? Seems every day we drop that little bit lower.
Gingy Good point.
Some sort of fund raising can be expected if the preliminary economic estimate is supportive of a go ahead as expected. This would be to pay for the process plant.
I think there may be an element of an equity issue and if you want to take part I suggest you contact all the following people to let them know.
Fawzi Hanano and Irene Dorsmann at CUSN investors@cornishmetals.com
Matthew Hasson at Hannam and Partners cornish@hannam.partners
Derrick Lee at Cavendish Partners 0131 220 6939
Richard Morrison @SPAngel 0203 470 0470
Good luck, Vii
VIS, do you think at some point there's going to be a placing to drum up funding, to push on to build processing plant? They must be burning through the money now with installation of new plant and wages.
Gingy - I agree But lets look to see
1.if the price of tin stays above $30k/tonne.
2. If the exploration results continue to be encouraging
3. How the finance for the process plant is structured.
Given the rise in metal prices, other areas of exploration - UD, Gwinear may be worth bringing forward
And another report
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/lme-bans-russian-origin-metal-after-uk-us-impose-new-sanctions/ar-BB1lzrPg
Hi valuation-it-is. When you start reading about all the positives going forward, what's not to like about this? I personally think at this point in time, with how much we've progressed, this share price should be sat at the least 25 pence.
I do think all the talk about interest rates not going down hasn't helped the share price.
Hi Pedrov, i must be honest I'm a bit disappointed with the share price. I did think it would hold up a bit better then it has with how things are progressing.
Lovelyboy, thanks for sharing this. Does this mean the next milestone is the installation of the processing plant?
Perhaps not of an immediate problem but could be why the SP is stubbornly low.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cc1ff242-ad35-4c65-9f76-985c5d1e1bdf?shareToken=12a2dc776fe017444463b75da05761d2
Follow up.... It appears the shaft lifts are now fully certified.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/owen-mihalop-30942468_after-months-of-hard-work-both-the-new-winders-activity-7184617301705396224-2JH5?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
ATB LB
All sounds very positive. Nice to see some progress on site. Thankyou for sending that lovelyboy. Have a good weekend all.
The market will soon wake up to the impact of the higher tin price on the outllook and NPV of CUSN.
Metal prices are melting upwards..........................Share prices to follow.
Thanks for this
I have added more today and now at my target weight.
Hopefully the recent slide will start reverse on news
Looks like the New Cooks Kitchen shaft lift cage has gone in and is nearly ready for use...
- - -
"PROJECT UPDATE: SIEMAG TECBERG UK Limited are thrilled to have assisted Cornish Metals Inc. in achieving the first Personnel riding on the New Cooks Kitchen shaft in 26 years!
The video below, taken during the final stages of commissioning of the newly supplied 2.3m diameter SIEMAG TECBERG single drum service hoist captures this momentous moment for mining in Cornwall. This will no doubt be the first of many personnel carrying hoisting operations that Cornish Metals Inc. will undertake in their planned shaft refurbishment works.
Next up, we continue commissioning of the hoist with the aim to certify it for full personnel and material hoisting in the next weeks, as Cornish Metals prepare themselves to gain regular access to the shaft for the first time since it was flooded after its closure in 1998.
The sound of shaft bells, emanating from SIEMAG TECBERG UK Limited purpose built Cerberus communications system, once again rings out in the historic Camborne and Redruth mining district, accompanied by the purposeful rotation of sheave wheels atop the headframe once again.
Congratulations to Cornish Metals Inc. on this momentous achievement – one which SIEMAG TECBERG UK Limited are proud to have played a part in. 👏😀"
- - -
Link with video
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7183094804686217217?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_feedUpdate%3A%28V2%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7183094804686217217%29
ATB LB