The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Ddd , your timescales seem similar to mine . Toll deal is still maybe .production not before 2022 and thats without problems along the way .
I like to be cautious on the gold price but any of these are quite possible but there is always the chance that by mid 2022 many things may have changed .who saw covid coming 9 months ago .
Meantime I hold a number of producers , a couple of early stage explorers and condor that is an inbetweenie .
I've been rooting around for gold price forecasts:
Today:
'ANZ Bank forecast gold and silver at $2,300 and $27 respectively on a six-to-twelve month view.'
July 28th:
Goldman Sachs says gold will surge another 20% and hit $2,300 in the next year, driven by rock-bottom interest rates.
July 22 (Mining.com)
'These 76 Analysts Believe Gold Will Go Parabolic To Between $2,500 and $15,000!'
(Includes a bunch of misses in this lot from the last time gold shot up).
Feb 4th 2020
“Gold Will Go To $2,500 Per Ounce” In The Next One to Three Years – Charles Nenner.
Telegraph 5 August 2020 :
Gold price hits new record but 'can go 25pc higher' as investors load up on the precious metal
The gold price reached a record high of $2,030 (£1,550) per ounce as investor caution continues to push the metal's value higher. Despite being in unchartered territory, analysts expect its price to rise even higher.
A survey of more than 1,300 DIY investors, conducted by online gold market place BullionVault, showed they expected the price to rise by 25pc by the end of 2020. This would take the price to $2,500.
Bank of America Feb 2020:
Bank of America Corp. raised its 18-month gold-price target to $3,000 an ounce -- more than 50% above the existing price record -- in a report titled “The Fed can’t print gold.”
And the list goes on.
For my part I think $2300 by the end of 2020 is possible but probably not the most likely outcome. Maybe mid-2021, and perhaps $2500 in H1 2022. As for $3000 I would go for end 2022 at the earliest with 2023 more likely. I doubt we will see $3000 in Q4 2021 as BoA forecast, irrespective of negative real interest rates.
In that sense I see Condor's path to production in pretty much alignment with the rise in the price of gold. Gold still has a lot of catching up to do.
My guesstimate on getting a second hand mill up and running would be about 18 months, albeit there will likely be all sorts of 'testing' required at low output before ramping up to full capability. I remember the heartache associated with Arian's second hand unit. It did happen but the commissioning process seemed to take forever. I don't think a toll deal would take anything like as long to set up. The complicated bit here is in cutting the right deal. I'm pretty much using Arian as a template for this which suggests to me we could see cash flow in 2021 with a toll deal and 2022 with Condor's own plant.
I would be interested to see other views on this.
ddd
Dictum , when you state about gold price tying into cnr early production ,what exactly do you mean . Are you meaning toll mining or small scale production which cannot be before 2022 imv .
I've just checked the interactive chart again. The actual bottom was $1869.90 although it only lasted for a matter of seconds.
Gold
As expected gold bounced in the upper $1800s, around $1882 to be more specific, and now looks like it's recovering. However, don't be surprised if we see another dip sometime in the next week. The rise to previous highs and beyond will be tempered by people who think they 'got burnt' by the recent blow-off. The good news is that nothing has really changed. All the predictions\forecasts about $2300 this year, then $2500 and later £3,000 in the next couple of years all remain intact.
Condor
I've watched the video again. It looks like we were lucky in not being out of the blocks late last year by all accounts. The wind may also be behind us in that gold will likely recover pretty much in alignment with Condor's progress towards early production. The day trading club are still selling here and there but the initial shock seems to be over with. It does indeed look like we will get some solid RNS based news sooner than my September expectations. With contracts for various aspects already flying backwards and forwards it looks like weeks rather than months, maybe even days. I'm waiting for the FOMO (Fear of missing out) crowd to return.
Markets
Still in optimistic mode. There is scepticism about the Russian vaccine but the underlying message is that one is probably on its way. My money is still on the Oxford trial delivering the goods. Fingers crossed, this year.
Gold
U.S. bond yields had been steadily climbing over the past three days, peaking at around 0.66 before starting a decline towards 0.60%. If yields continue to drop back my guess is that you will see the reappearance of buyers, probably somewhere in the upper $1800s. A reversal to $2050 will probably take much longer than the decline to $1900 but I would guess weeks rather than months. As for money creation and inflation expectations - what's changed? Nothing! The fundamentals remain solid and it would not surprise me to see the day trader/ 'Robinhood' types be replaced by more robust hands on the way back up. Personally, I think a slower incline is preferable to the accelerated moves we have seen in the last week or two. And don't forget that by all accounts there is a physical shortage of gold across the world, thus an interest by certain parties to cover their short positions.
Condor
We are going into production, and not at some far distant point in the future. All the rest is background noise. My guess is that there will be both a toll deal with Calibre AND the purchase of a second hand mill. In other words a shorter term and longer term solution. Some will be spooked by the $125 or so fall in gold while others will see this as a buying opportunity. The latter crowd are more likely to understand Condor's unit cost of production and will realise that even $1600 gold is a major gift horse, with the potential to propel the company into triple, maybe quadruple bagger territory.
Markets
Up today on vaccine optimism. It would not surprise me to see it all reverse tomorrow as the WHO and other heavyweight medical groups launch credibility torpedoes at it.
Whatever you do, don't panic. Gold had to take a breather and Condor's recent rise has been pretty fast as well. Whether this evening's steer from MC is enough to bring buyers back in remains to be seen. I think it could go either way tomorrow, down in reaction to US trading in gold, or back up in realisation that cash flow is not that far away.
I'm sitting tight as usual.
ddd