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Good to see you back. This board is very quiet, a good sign. Should it ever become like some other deliberately unnamed sites, then I'll sell up and move on!. Under the radar here for the time being. For the time being at least, I can sleep easy with this one. Hope other investments are doing well (same thought for all here). Regards CM
I have decided to re-enter into CLL on a long term hold. It's historic PE has gone below 20 with a 12 month looking forward now at 10. The market is taken its time to mark this share, however next few months i hope to see some movement with end of year results round the corner, and if everything is as expected then CLL should rerate.
Hi BB, good to hear from someone new to the board if not CLL itself. Why the drop today?. Well, my best guess is that it is down to worries about possible Eurozone recession (again), after Germany yesterday reported a fall of 4% in manufacturing output, the largest since 2009 and the 3rd largest since re-unification. That is likely to have had a knock on effect to many shares regardless of their own fundamentals. We are also in a small cap bear market, which started around the end of March. If I compare the share price graph of CLL with many other good companies I will find they are pretty much similar in their direction, the graphs look very similar. I could mention my other holdings, but will resist, since they are mentioned in previous posts and I don't want to be accused of ramping. Perhaps it was just CLLs turn to get kicked today. The market takes little notice of fundamentals at such times. The market can stay irrational for longer than our funds will last so at such times preservation of capital is paramount, hence some investors are selling out, possibly to re-enter the market at a better time. And that may well include me, although right now I am still invested. Ask me again tomorrow though!. When the tide goes out all boats fall, not just the irrational, speculative ones. I don't know how long the bear market will last. Growth stocks tend to lead the way into and out of a bear market, so my fear is possible that the main market will follow. I have been looking through a book "The Zulu Principle" by Jim Slater, written back in 1992, but still valid in many respects today. In one chapter "The Markets" he mentions ways of identifying the top of a bull market. Here are just a few: Interest rates are usually about to rise. The consensus view of investment advisors will be bullish. Offers for sale, rights issues and new issues are usually in abundance, with quality suffering and low grade issues being chased to ridiculous levels. Shares fail to respond to good news. Directors might report excellent results only to see the price of the shares fall. At the top of a bull market investors usually move from safe growth stocks into cyclicals. Any of the above sound familiar?. There really is no good news around right now. There is the trouble mentioned above with the Eurozone, ebola, trouble with Islamic State, Syria, Ukraine, France and Italy reacting against the IMF regarding the size of their debts, concern re interest rates, even in the US that they may rise because the economy is growing!. Not far off is the UK general election with uncertainty as to the result of that will be to worry the markets!. Lord love a duck!. We must all make our own choice as to what to do. I am not here to worry anyone and most definitely not to deramp!, that is not and never will be my aim. Not meaning to sound gloomy. Good luck all and regards CM
Well CLL had held up well in the AIM bear run. We have just past the ex-dividend date but I am afraid on the very strongest AIM are holding. Unfortunately after a longish holding CLL price has dropped to my stop loss point and as such sold me out. Many people will see the AIM bear run as buying opportunities but for me I see this as a time to hold more cash and concentrate more on main listings. if you decide to hold on CM I wish you well on CLL and I hope we meet on other boards which I am sure we will
why the 5% drop today?
Good evening Dyna. I was trying to copy over a report from Paul Scott about the how the market is performing at present. However, it was too long to post here and some of it was a little off topic. Basically he showed that if we look at graphs for the indicies it would show that if we look at the AIM All Share Index it would show that it has fallen back from a high around March this year and is in a bearish mode. How long this will last is difficult to know of course. The AIM All Share Index is almost at a 52 week low, so it is not surprising that most stocks have been trading lower regardless. Some are trading significantly lower. If our investments are holding up reasonably well at such times then it should be encouraging. This in my opinion is not a time to go chasing highly speculative shares; yes it may work out but chances are it won't. With the right shares it is probably a good idea to hold tight and in time they are quite likely to turn out to be winners, but with a longer time scale than originally envisaged. All my holdings pay out dividends; CLL and GBG have been increasing their dividends over the last 3 years and more, HAYT has just started paying dividends, TRCS pays a dividend but it is pretty miniscule. Some comfort in all of that, but nothing guaranteed. Over the last 3 months and more I have for the first time not looked to widen my investments but cut back, until things look brighter. Incidentally, in case anyone is thinking I am ramping my holdings, let me assure you I am most definitely not; I don't need or want to and would urge all to dyor, please. You have a good rule not to mention your short positions, fully understandable. I am unable to short trade with the account(s) I have with my broker. In truth, I am against short trading and believe it should not be legal, don't think it is right to be able to sell something you don't own. However, since it is not illegal then I understand why folks do it and if there is profit to be made there then I can't blame them. There are some blindingly obvious shares to short, yet folk are still jumping onboard buying and then get agitated when things turn against them. I am not prepared to mention them on this or any other board for the same reason as you. Good luck with your investments, all. Regards CM
Sorry I mean down from 100% invested to 60% invested and 40% cash. I really wish LSE could introduce and edit function :S
Afternoon to you. I have reduced my main ISA holdings to only six. Down from ten last month. I am also now around 60% invested and 40% cash, again down from 100% cash only a couple months or so ago. RNWH (Renew) and JD. (JD Sports) are the only ones that have risen. The rest including CLL have simply side lined. But all my long term investments pay out dividends so at least I get something for holding onto them. One that I just bought recently is PLUS which seems to fit all my criteria and risen 6% past few days. But who know if that will go back down. Everything else I have cut quickly. I do have a 2 or 3 open shorts on my spread bet account and also I trade now and again, but this is all a small percentage compared to my main portfolio. I have a self imposed rule not to mention my shorts due to general hostility to betting down a share. As always good luck to you.
Quite possibly. The current state of the markets would also suggest that most shares are not safe from a fall regardless of fundamentals etc. My other holdings of GBG, HAYT and TRCS have all fallen back of late on little volume and no adverse news. Very difficult to read the markets at present with current affairs. To many, CLL may appear dull and boring; I can live with that if the alternative is a short but exciting investment in a high risk/high reward or more likely high risk/no reward share. I need to be able to sleep these nights and be more professional in my work rather than checking share prices constantly whilst neglecting my work. A lot of growth stocks which have excelled over the last year seem to have matured more and although we may be able to expect further future growth it will probably not be at the rate previously seen. That means more patience. "Oh Lord, please give me patience, but give it to me NOW!". Regards CM
Ex Dividend 1st October to be paid 7th November. Probably reason for small drop in sp.
Some interesting comments from Robbie Burns, the Naked Trader, on his blog this evening, www.nakedtrader.co.uk. Worth a look although it doesn't mention CLL, yet. I'm hoping in time it may come up at one of his seminars. The following is taken from his latest blog: "Back end of September and October can be a tricky time: volatility increases and it definitely gets harder. That's especially if you have volatile shares, it is just so easy to panic and sell just as it is about to bounce and buy at the top too. The market is definitely going to be tough in the coming weeks. The only thing I can suggest is don't overtrade and don't chase the same shares up and down." Times like this it is good to have an under the radar, steady performing company, although nothing is guaranteed of course. Dyna - your view(s) on stop losses prove true again re BOOM this time. Well done with sticking to your principles. Hard lesson to learn, but harder to ignore and lose what profits we could have taken. Good luck all CM
CM your spot on with taken profits on speculative shares. Boom hit my 14p stop target so sold out taken a cumulative 46% profit on both transactions). The ramping on that board is becoming overwhelming now so it is time to move on from there!
Hello Dyna. Yes, back safe and sound from the Alps late Thursday. Not a great deal has happened whilst I was away, can settle for that. I am trying to take a lower profile generally and reducing my holdings to 4 companies has certainly helped, better for my nerves!. CLL has done very little for some time and to many would appear to be boring. Boring will do me fine, boring tends to perform better longer term. Too easy to cast our eyes to those high flying shares which seem to be flying ever higher without realising the higher risk associated with them. Knowing when to take profits is key rather than hang on to squeeze just a little more profit and see the share price start falling back. Leave a little for others to go for. My portfolio too has been somewhat mixed. Generally holding up. HAYT has been a disappointment and seems stuck in a range from mid 70s to low 80s despite the fine RNSs and fundamentals. BOOM, yes, one to be very careful with. Easy to jump aboard looking at recent price rise only to find it has been done so at a spike. Generally I feel, whether it is BOOM or here with CLL, once a board gets extra busy it is a good time to consider seriously whether it is not a good time to get out. It has a touch of the COMS to me, plenty of promise and potential but not a great deal of foundation at present. CLL remains strong and is not subject to mass hysteria, high fives, slapping of backs followed by incriminations and outright nastiness. Long may it remain so. It would be nice to see this creep up towards that 100p share price. Regards and good luck all CM
Good morning CM, it is good to hear from you too and trust you got back from your adventures to the Alps safe and well. O certainly do not think you have missed much on the boards to be honest, nothing has really changed really. I have reduced my presence too and feel better for it.. Small caps are starting to see the light of day again thank goodness. CLL will soon be entering one of my holding categories called boring. But I guess boring is good The results were good, still cash generative and balance sheet improving from what I could see. But most importantly and as you rightly point out, dividends continue to increase over 5 years with the latest interim dividend increased by 25%. PE/PEG/EPS all confusing on the CLL reports depending whether one uses GAAP measures, non GAAP, forward earnings or reported earnings *getting a sore head here. But all in all I am still going to hold onto my investment of CLL at least until end of year is reported of I hit my stop loss, which is now 85p (I think). Rest of my shares been mixed. Most notably JD Sports, Renew doing well. A unexpected profit warning from NWRI (Networkers International) stopping me out on poor results due to currency fluctuations. but out with eternal exposure the business model is still sound so some may see it as a buying opportunity, but for me I am now staying out on that one. Oh and BOOM (AudioBoom).. high speculative punt I entered into at 7p.. sold out at 11p and was back in at 13p. It is now 16p, and my stop loss moved to 14. It is not often I punt but there was some interesting RNS;s. I best not go on about it on the CLL board and the RNS's can give you a good history on the company. I apologise to any readers who felt it unnecessary. Just to admit I know longer comment on the BOOM board, as it is now becoming like the rest of the highly speculative boards with too much one liner chatters. So all in all a mixed bag generally with my portfolio increasing slightly. I have a few others but none worth mentioning for now. good luck to you :)
Good evening Dyna, good to hear from you and thanks for the post. Always good to read positives. I have been very quiet on the boards recently, taking a lower profile and having just returned from 2 weeks away walking in the Swiss Alps. I had hoped my investments would behave themselves whilst I was away and largely they have. I am relaxed enough to let this one lie quietly and not look for super fast growth, suits my mood more at present. As I have mentioned previously on this board, any company that has increased its' dividend each year over the last 5 years and more has to be taken seriously. Good luck all Regards CM
IC VIEW: Cello's shares have risen a third this year, yet still trade on 12 times forecast earnings - a discount to the sector average of 16 times. That looks cheap given that both its divisions are growing steadily and attracting high-profile clients. Buy.
Steve Moore's interesting article on CLL... Cello Group – interims, more to come from this big share tip winner to date? - See more at: http://www.shareprophets.advfn.com/views/7860/cello-group-interims-more-to-come-from-this-big-share-tip-winner-to-date#sthash.Mka17v15.dpuf
sure, cello doesn't seem to be a good way to get rich quick. but agree, interims pleasant enough, i'm happy to keep some as part of balance on the overall p/f. gla (not sure how many 'a' is ... quiet bb).
Nice results today. Operating Cash Outflow due to bonuses and like, But they had cash to do this plus increased dividend. All ok for me here, although I want to see price movement upwards soon to stay in.
Thanks for the link. CLL has been stuck in a value trap since the beginning of the year, and it a classic patience case. I like Stockopedia and it's quantitive measures. One of it's main attributes is their focus on combining different strategies to help the private investors, not only choose good stocks but also assist with timing. I like the value & quality combination. CLL has always been a 'quality' company, with good cash flow, increasing profits, earnings, low gearing etc. But I have found now that waiting for 'value' to be recognised, requires a lot of patience. CLL balance sheet is a little weak, and this is not reflected totally in Stockopedia's calculations, so no system is perfect thus, DYOR is still very important and to check the actual historic financial statements for accuracy. Over the past 6 months CLL value metrics, now P/E 12 month rolling 11.3, PEG 0.88, amongst others has giving it a cheap value rating. The article mentioned QPP and surprisingly for a couple months QPP fell into the Zulu principle, with a PEG rating of 0.026 (if i remember correctly). But Stockopedia's Zulu criteria doest go into Free cash Flow per Share, which is now one of Jim/Mark Slaters mandatory points. Also what the Telegraph article fails to mention is that QPP also falls for the 'Beneish M-Score Screen' for Short Selling!. I like the article, and it promotes some of the benefits of Stockopedia. For farmer investors it is the best (IMHO) source for data gathering. But for 'hunter' investors like myself it is a great place to start before looking beyond the quantitive measures into outlook statements, positive news and media etc. CLL is good value (90), good quality (91), questions about balance sheet, but free cash flow in excess of earrings, positive outlook etc. QPP appears to be good value rank 91, very cheap PE, PEG etc, but poor quality according to Stockopedia at quality rank 22, despite high ROCE, ROE and Operating Margins. There is also the bad publicity and many questions about its business model that is not taken into account. So going by Stockpedia's Value rank alone, without further research is a high risk (maybe contrarian) strategy.
I like the trading update from this marketing company today. The summary of today's announcement says; Cello has experienced robust trading for the first six months to 30 June 2014. Like-for-like gross profit growth (which excludes the impact of acquisitions) has been in excess of 10% for the period. The Group has increased its investment in professional resource to service this high level of gross profit growth. Despite this increased investment overall Group operating margins have also grown slightly in the period. The Board is therefore pleased to announce that trading for the first six months of 2014 will be well ahead of the same period in 2013 and that it expects to at least meet current full year market expectations. I like that phrase "at least meet" - so it's now a question of by how much they out-perform. Note that broker consensus has been creeping up in the last 12 months, usually a good sign. So maybe they are now heading for say 8-9p EPS this year? Who knows, that's just a guesstimate. 0851bbc2a8.jpg In valuation terms, at the current share price of 93p that means a reasonably attractive PER in the low teens. There's a reasonable divi yield of just under 3% too. My concerns are Balance Sheet weakness, as covered in more detail in previous reports. Net tangible assets are negative here, by £6.9m when last reported. However if you can live with a weak Balance Sheet, then it seems to be a company that is trading well, at a reasonable valuation. DYOR as usual, this is just my opinion based on a fairly cursory review of the numbers.
yep good update, nice and steady. Trading on around 12 times earning and still low gearing. Back onto a positive relative strength. Lets hope CLL now breaks through 95 mark.
Strong update - hopefully this will rerate
Taken from todays update: Summary Cello has experienced robust trading for the first six months to 30 June 2014. Like-for-like gross profit growth (which excludes the impact of acquisitions) has been in excess of 10% for the period. The Group has increased its investment in professional resource to service this high level of gross profit growth. Despite this increased investment overall Group operating margins have also grown slightly in the period. The Board is therefore pleased to announce that trading for the first six months of 2014 will be well ahead of the same period in 2013 and that it expects to at least meet current full year market expectations. Seems pretty good to me. Lets hope it is reflected in todays share price with a rise. Regards CM