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Had s good look around various sites this am but couldn’t find anything . Maybe something is happening at boardroom level?
Why no RNS this morning? My broker emailed a corporate action notice saying Advent were interested last night in CLIN which I hold in their account. The message was from CLIN themselves. Should I presume this website is slow again?
Something is coming for the good
Anyone wishing to read the news report it can be found via the This is Money.co.uk website
The Advent interest was reported a couple of weeks ago. Reference was made to a potential bid in the region of £10.50 and £11.50 per share. A source suggested that Advent had decided not to proceed for the time being. I recall it was reported in the Times and Daily Mail
Well that is good news. Advent was the rumour,hope it’s someone else, ( bidding war) in my dreams! If a bid is received then they are the buyer, yes.
I must check after hours trades. Many thanks. Yhorpeyuk.:-)
Yes, I seem to remember it was last week or so. Still they may still be looking into a bid .
The business model seems an interesting way of making money I’ve only recently invested .
I just received a contract note on my ISA telling me that Clinigen have confirmed a bid received... somethings definitely happening. I suspect if there is a buyer, they'll want it done before mid-July results are out, but who knows for sure!
Advent International - the buyout firm that acquired Cobham for £4bn - eyes up £1.5bn bid for Clinigen
Found this in This money magazine might be old news
Thanks for the acknowledgement. I like to think these boards are for exchanges of points of view ....that is what makes the market. All the better if there is some rationale backing up a buy or sell view.
I have followed CLIN for 4 years and owned shares for slightly less....I like their story of developing drugs, making drugs available in hospitals in countries that are yet to licence drugs and of distribution. I see the attraction of acquiring developed products although I think this is their riskiest business because the stakes are high when you invest a few hundred million for someone else’s cast off there are risks that newer products are much more effective and the product life may be limited.
The balance sheet has 1bn of assets but 800m of these are goodwill and licence fees so they need the acquisitions to work immediately and for the life expected to generate the cash to make a return on the capital invested. Napoleon and Eisenhower liked their generals to be lucky, I like CEOs to be lucky in placing their bets. So far so good.
Spot on, the trading update is indeed in mid July. As you say the main driver I think will be proleukin. If it goes ok then the sp surly will go up. In the meantime it’s wait. My main holdings are in GSK which seems to be in limbo at the moment. I have a Crystal ball thinking that somethings about to happen , I know it’s daft! It the split isn’t. Aside I’m not doing any ramping , which seems to be the thing that people go on about on the LSE site , stupid in my view no bloody chance of influencing a market unless you have millions of pounds to trying to manipulate the sp.
Let’s hope the next results are ok.
Last year there was a trading update in the middle of July.
I am expecting an announcement around the same time this year which will set the tone for the next few months. Key items to look for:
Integration and the International platform
Proleukin sales (if disclosed)
Further distribution and licensing deals often included with an update.
EBITDA guidance, cash generation and debt levels.
For the IFRS accounts usually presented in September, level and type of adjustments to achieve operating profit and EBITDA, levels of ITDA to the net profit/EPS and on the balance sheet additions and amortisation of intangibles and current asset/liability movements key to cash generation.
The most important Positive items are higher Proleukin sales and regeneration progress, higher cash generation, lower adjustments to operating profit, significantly higher EPS.
Conversely, decline in Proleukin sales and increased amortisation of licence fee. Higher adjustments to operating profit, limited EPS progress. Higher debt relative to EBITDA and lower cash conversion rates.
Recent RNS have been positive so I expect more positives than negatives and the shares to rise to more than £10.00
Refer to RNS 16 April, plus the debit is not massive. Seems to be a interesting area with specific drugs.
Seaking1
You have a couple of views below....what did you conclude from your due diligence?
I am positive of a good return on the share
I don’t know much about share dealing as I said it’s my cousins business so when they first floated I bought and done very well
It's been fairly well covered below... debt is a little high, but they've just finished paying off some lumpy acquisition-related payments, and with EBITDA likely to be in the region of £130m, could pay it down fairly quickly. Organic growth was 9% in H1, increasing to at least 12% in Q3 based on their last trading statement. They've announced they have signed quite a few deals recently too, including the "largest one in our history". Lastly 3 directors bought shares recently, so all in all, great buy at these levels
The story is positive, but there are two large acquisitions the US distributor and Proleukin that drive a relatively large pile of debt. The US business had been underperforming and was sold by a PE fund to Clin.....the integration story is playing out ok. The purchase of Proleukin is more of a gamble....Novartis deemed it surplus and it is an older generation of oncology drugs. They are trying to refresh it and the trial with Iovance had a positive update, but there is a risk of a significant loss of value if they can’t find new applications for it and it goes off patent.
So I would summarise that the balance sheet is laden with debt and intangibles however it seems to be generating sufficient cash to allow these assets and liabilities to run off profitably.
I think the debt was the main reason the SP crashed to 400 earlier this year...
In my view quite risky but a decent risk/reward outlook.
There’s no negatives
It’s a unique company and it’s going places
Just bought after due diligence. The company looks ok to me . If anyone can see any negatives please let me know as I cannot see any.
There are good times ahead just give it time
J P Morgan don’t get involved for nothing
Of course this is just my fantasy CEO musings....
Forget the rumour of a potential bid that did not come to anything.
It seems trading has been positive and the rejuvenation of proleukin is coming along nicely.
Management has made regular acquisitions so I am sure they will looking for another soon up to 500m. ...then a merger with another 1.5 to 2bn organisation and a move to FTSE
It ended down because the FTSE was being dragged down i.e. market factors rather than CLIN specific.
The bid is just a rumour at this stage. Not enough clout to really affect the SP.
But it does give an indication of what could be on the horizon for CLIN in the next 1-2 years. People are sniffing around.
The lack in daily mail was dodgy, this ended the day down
The offer can only be good news.
1. If its accepted we'll all make tidy profit (although not be original target of £20)
2. If its not accepted then management obvs think its worth a lot. The market will drive the SP up