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First time I have seen an EBITDA forecast for 2022 performance - from Oryx " The company's management team continued to deliver on the stated strategy of taking cost out of the business while driving sales through its international distributor-led model. The company is now profitable for the first time and expects to generate at least £4.1 million of EBITDA in 2022, a remarkable achievement given the group had lost £25 million of EBITDA as recently as 2019. The balance sheet is robust with circa £13.5 million net cash and management have expressed confidence in Circassia's ability to outperform market expectations. "
If the business can continue to grow its revenue through it low overhead sales model this bodes well for the future. SB
True, but the mkt cap. Of £130m looks a stretch.
Looks like Spreadex (or their clients) exited 1/3 of their position on Friday 1st - explains the 4.375m buy/sell - possibly helped by the announcement we have $10m in cash due from Beyond Air over next 2 years with a potential further $6m in royalties. Update expected next week - should be over £15m revenue in first half; c.£14m+ cash in bank; money flowing from beyond air; and hopefully a positive look ahead for the second half of the year. SB
Hi all, I must be missing something, but does anyone understand the recent significant share price fall here? Thanks
Good point hectordog - although it is possible that there are a number of parties that sit beneath the 'position' - in which case individually they not would trigger a declaration above 3%. Last previous disclosed short position was closed out in 2019 - so perhaps this is a long position with spreadbet acting as the broker? Question is - what has prompted a 14m CFD share trade - normal business aside? SB
Surely it will likely be a professional client of Spreadex that is the underlying 'investor'? I can't believe that Spreadex is investing on its own account. If I am right, then the underlying account holder should rightly be named.
Given the positive news at the time of the AGM on current trading, cash in back, overhead reduction - it will be interesting to see if Spreadex have taken a long or short position here - 14m shares declared under a CFD. SB
Pretty obvious that the AGM statement was a ‘for sale’ sign. The business has been cleaned up, is making good gross profits and generating cash. When Christopher Mills did that video interview of the companies he had investments in a while ago (I think he has 29% of CIR) he speculated that a larger company might buy it to consolidate its business with their own and eliminate duplicated overheads. Makes a lot of sense and could happen sooner than we think.
Does raise the question - what are the expectations!! Any ideas? H1 revenue could be c.£16m based on the AGM statement - running costs are not clear given the head count savings were not expected to impact until 2022 - and clearly both revenue needs to increase and costs need to come down as we will not have the benefit of a £4m tax credit in 2022 to offset the group trading loss. Going in the right direction though - growing, cash in bank, positive cash flow, potential beyond air settlement upside if lungfit gets FDA - but its going to take something quite special to hit the 63p Dec 2022 options bonus for our executive chairman. SB
only materially ahead of expectations! At least we're not being caned for it yet in this stupid market
Couple of mighty meaty purchases from directors helps steady the ship's drift
Nothing of any real note from a first pass. Pretty much just a one trick pony now - niox or bust! If the company is being fully transparent on its cost of sales and reached a point where further cost savings are now limited - the only route to a profitable business is to increase niox sales - with US and Asia the two key target markets. If we can maintain year to date sales growth of 20% (clinical focus which accounts for 85%+ of revenue), this would take us close to pre-pandemic sales level (£34m) for current year - and should deliver an actual trading profit - no point in a 68% gross margin when costs wipe all of that margin out. Good to have plenty of cash in back with future positive cash generation and beyond air royalties helping build that position. Now we are a clean and viable business I wonder if the team have had any enquiries. SB
shares are nicely set up to rally into the results in a few weeks...expecting a continuation of the strong trading and should push on into the 60's triggering the windfall for management..
I would agree - the 10 days appear to relate to the period prior to the options being granted ie that was how the options price of c.63p was calculated. Good spot. Based on where we are the only realistic chance of getting to that price by Dec is a takeover imo. SB
I read it as SP has to exceed 63p for 30 consecutive days (not 10 days) or a liquidity event above that level. Could be wrong.
or a liquidity event......which may be the best opportunity to reach that price this year. SB
Thank you Taltbong. So essentially the sp has to reach 63p for ten consecutive days leading up to 5th Dec this year.
I think that looks doable. Just need this covid malarkey to buzz off.
wow!...someone just paid over the asking price for 18m shares!...42.3p
Schlum, I think the "super bonus" is based on a price of 62.4p. Details as per the below Grant of Options RNS:
RNS Number : 5322X. Circassia Pharmaceuticals Plc. 19 December 2019
Grant of options
Oxford, UK - 19 December 2019: Circassia Pharmaceuticals plc ("Circassia" or "the Company"; LSE: CIR), a specialty biopharmaceutical company focused on respiratory disease, announces that it has granted nil-cost options ("Options") today over 4,322,767 ordinary shares in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") to Ian Johnson, who was appointed as Executive Chairman of the Company on 5 December 2019, under the 2019 Performance Share Plan.
The Options have been granted at nil-cost and will vest on the third anniversary of the date of grant and are exercisable until the tenth anniversary of the date of grant. Vesting is subject to either the share price reaching 62.4p, equating to three times the average closing price for an Ordinary Share for the 10 dealing days immediately preceding the grant date, for at least 30 consecutive dealing days or a liquidity event occurring above this level.
Should some or all of the Options be exercised, the Ordinary Shares will be purchased on the open market by The Circassia Pharmaceuticals plc Employee Benefit Trust on behalf of Mr Johnson.
Does anyone remember if the 66p figure, to be reached for executive bonuses payouT is time dependent.
Highlights
· Revenue growth of 17% (20% on a constant currency basis) to £27.9m, with recurring revenue of 84%
· Group adjusted EBITDA1 positive for the first time at c. £0.6m, ahead of market expectations
· Net cash £12.6m
· New distribution arrangements in the United States and China to drive further revenue growth
Superb update. May the SP rise continue. Holding long term here and it will be interesting to follow the story and see if the much talked about buy out by a big player happens.
I can see why people we're buying in yesterday, could have been a leak
Looks like there's been a lot of block trades today so could be an institution getting in - could get a TR-1 drop very soon.
This is just speculation though, I could be completely wrong
Nice move today! Trading update might be tomorrow based on last year, or very soon.
Suspect might be v good news....................