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Crux Investor, Deeds, not words are needed now!
Whilst a healthy start and a confident presentation, I should emphasise that investors should remain cautious until Sentiment management demonstrates sustained operational stability over a longer period of time. Here's a more balanced take:
While the recent update provides grounds for optimism, investors would be prudent to maintain a healthy scepticism until Centamin shows it can deliver consistent operational performance over an extended timeframe. The company has faced struggles with meeting production targets and managing costs in the past. Though the new management team led by CEO Martin Horgan seems to have made progress in addressing these issues, one year of hitting guidance does not definitively prove they have resolved the underlying problems. There is still execution risk in consistently hitting forecasts.
Additionally, guidance was met but at the lower end of the projected output range in 2022, and required what management called "prudent" cost assumptions. Investors should watch for Sentiment to demonstrate it can beat guidance over a series of quarters, rather than just meet baseline expectations. There are also risks around Centamin's major growth projects like the Sukari underground expansion that could face unexpected challenges during implementation. Until these capital programs are executed successfully, they represent potential downside risks if behind schedule or over budget.
While the healthier balance sheet and strong free cash flows from the Sukari mine provide some stability, Centamin lacks the margin for error of some industry majors. To truly change perceptions, consistently meeting or exceeding operational targets in 2023 and beyond will be critical.
While the future looks brighter for Centamin, investors may want to take a "trust but verify" approach, looking for an extended track record of outperformance and flawless execution before viewing the operational turnaround as fully secured. There is still work ahead for management to translate potential into consistent value creation.
January 31, 2023
Matthew Gordon
https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/centamin-plc-q4-2022-investor-presentation-summary
652 views 8 Mar 2024
Centamin PLC’s (TSX:CEE) two highlights of 2023 were achieving all-in-sustaining costs of $1,250 an ounce, and delivering guidance for the third straight year, says CEO Martin Horgan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sss6zwnkuus
Hi 3bear
Also good to hear from Cooperman again, pity the ipad played up, you may be able t salvage what you composed though if you do then please post it.
Glad you now see what I am concerned about at 3bear, I do hope that my concerns about what seems to be slick accountancy tactics are due to some misconception or misunderstanding on my part rather than some intending misrepresentation of the true facts.
I'm certain that everyone myself included were hoping for a far more shall I say inspiring or encouraging Q1 2024 report which unfortunately certainly wasn't the case !
Interestingly at 1755 Fri 26th April I received a courteous and professional reply not from Mr M Stoner but from Centamin's PR representative Ben Brewerton of fti Consultancy in which Mr Bremerton has attempted to address my concerns, although I have yet to do some research on the reasoning and rationale contained in it before I will be able decide if I feel reassured or not about the the future prospects of Centamin.
Tibbs
Just wrote a long diatribe about Horgan but iPad played up and lost it , not writing it again but basically he is useless and insipid as a leader and promoter of the business . Thank god gold is so high otherwise the share would be tanking
Tibbs there weren't many lights to be dazzled by in Q1.
Q2 on the other hand, revenues ought to be off to the moon.
I do share your concern about AISC manipulation. Out of $190m earned in Q1 they spent $180m on AISC + investment/exploration leaving only $10m free cash flow.
We are going to see record revenue in Q2 but if the FCF is still rhubarb, then I'll be inclined to join you in the grousing gang.
Andy Schectman, President of Miles Franklin. The precious metals experts juxtapose the current physically-driven bull run with their long histories of financial education.
The military application of Silver there are 500 oz of silver in the tip of a Tomahawk cruise missile!
China owns the LBMA and the gold bullion will be stored in China!
BRICS is a gold backed commodities currency!
China owns $2.5 - $3 trillion of USA treasuries!
https://tinyurl.com/5dmrpety
Good luck Tony, will miss the banter from you.
As a final shot- the always falls in the first 2 weeks of April didn’t happen- so you’ll need to adjust your chart accordingly :-)
Thank you Tony for your past contributions to this forum and may I wish you health and prosperity for the future and hope that you will still drop in from time to time anyway!
Best
Tibbs
It's time that the trading cess pit notability the Comex was more tightly regulated to have some moral responsibility and be about more than a quick profit, at present the Comex trading brings about severe or erratic price fluctuation for the benefit of the trading desks, but at a great cost and detriment to the vast majority of the worlds inhabitants by helping to bring about the destruction of and pollution of our planet and inflict hardship and suffering on a huge number of the worlds communities!
Hi Mr Bond
With regards to my portfolio for this financial year, I have reduced it 18% overall thus far and put it into 5% interest fixed bonds. I am mainly in cash at present If Centamin does not pull back, I am likely to stay off and not chase the FOMO especially on the back of Chinese high roller speculators. For those holding I wish you all good luck. I will be writing less on the board as I hold no positions but will put in the odd message. Tony
Good day 3bear,
I have expressed my main points of contention as a UK shareholder in a courteous manner on numerous occasions and although it may be coincidence its seems since Buchanan PR haven't represented Centamin I haven't received even an acknowledgement, let alone any utterance of reassurance or answers to my concerns-
Considering Martin Horgan's initial claims of being open with all shareholders this is a very poor show, even basic courtesy or business protocol from a limited company requires at the very least an acknowledgment of some kind.
I take your point on the 325,000 from the open pit, but consider the true cost of processing such low grade ore and what if the grade quality worsens even further?
Then consider the points I raised below that the company seems reluctant to address openly.
Also consider why are some long term institutional holders selling, possibly they may too have concerns over the Sukari operation?
Just to clarify I first bought into Centamin in 2010 as a growth stock added over the years so I continue to hold a not inconsiderable number of Centamin shares.
I really do want the company to succeed and I would be delighted if my concerns were proven groundless, but as yet I receive no reassurance on the latter from the company.
This is very poor show and that seems to display an arrogant disregard to UK retail shareholders
In my experience Cowichan is a good chap, he cares about what's right and he is passionate about all manner of animal welfare and environmental issues
Various derogatory and spiteful remarks are made about Cowichan for asking questions, well good for him, I only wish a few more shareholder would do the same, it is in their own interests and if the company had any idea of good PR they would answer, or offer some explanation as to why they can't, failure to do so can only and understandably raise suspicions that all is'nt as being claimed!
So why don't you, or any of those still wearing the rose coloured specs or are dazzled by the bright lights of the Q1 2024 presentation disprove Cowichan's and my concerns by contacting the company by whatever means is preferable, even copy and past my comments, I am likely known to various relevant and senior member of the Centamin management and I would be delighted if they are willing and able to prove me wrong or at ideally allay my doubts in their present strategy.
Tibbs
https://www.agbi.com/industry/2024/01/uk-owner-ramps-up-output-at-egypts-largest-gold-mine/
Its looking like you are correct Tony. I read an analyst say Comex traders liquidating or offloading somwhat.
Perhaps they are getting worried or getting into higher paying US treasury bonds.
Either way they know more than we do.
Have a good day.
Major European indexes rose in Friday's premarket trading as investors digested multiple corporate earnings, including reports from TotalEnergies SE and NatWest Group.
In addition, a speech from European Central Bank (ECB) Vice-President Luis de Guindos is expected later today.
The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 0.67% at 8:29 am CET, the DAX was up 0.18%, the CAC 40 added 0.23% and the FTSE 100 rose 0.68% at the same time.
The euro and the pound both traded flat against the dollar, going for 1.07308 and 1.25100, respectively, at 8:28 am CET.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / RR
Gold currently $2338.60
Happy Friday y’al
Enjoy your weekend.
No gold withdrawn from Comex yesterday. 32,000 ounces received as a deposit. Interesting to see how things now play out.
Hi Tibbs
So you still want to close down the open pit?
Say goodbye to 325,000oz, they're not exactly processing sawdust.
I just don't get your argument.
Hi 3bear, appreciate your post is well meaning, however and not wishing to appear rude you do a better job than the Centamin PR team!
This Q1 2024 is reason for some very serious concern when considering the much lower grade mined, both from the open pit and underground.
For the open pit Martin & Ross put a brave face on it and claimed it was a “reclassification” of waste as ore.
It seems as if they cannot properly distinguish between ore and waste resulting in much more waste being sent for processing!
For the underground grades any explanation is missing?
So assuming they sent 3,395,000 tonnes to the stockpile at a grade of 0.36 g/t AU should they ever get around to treating this it will generate precious little cash flow!
The management seem to be are playing games with capex classification and to call deferred stripping “growth” capex is ridiculous!
Waste stripping is part of normal mining operation to achieve the planned LOM production and the reason why they (mis)qualify it is to avoid having to include it in the calculation of AISC cost metric.
AISC is a nonsense metric easily to manipulate.
Just classify capex as “growth” and it drops out!
This is why so many companies with fantastically low AISC are unable to generate free cash flow.
Why not calculate the revenue from the mined grade taking into account a low recovery.
Then calculate the mining cost for one tonne ore and all those tonnes of waste, processing cost, G&A and capital investments to keep going.
From this exercise It will become apparent that it generates very little to no cash flow!
Why not put these points to Centamin, if they respond their answer should be interesting.
If anyone is guilty of putting out the same old tripe likely it's the Martin & Ross act at the last Q1 2024 presentation when they served old tripe in lieu of decent grade ore from the open pit!
Use the data points Paul- I've posted them a lot :-).
Good luck.
I'd love to help out but I don't "trade" very often as I am not very good at it and I probably need to be more careful with my money than you do.
I wish I'd had enough spare cash to buy 4000 shares this morning when I posted and they were 121.7.
A few things I'm good at
Leaving and order to buy------this means the share price will hover just over the price I've left the order in for a couple of days.
Losing patience and buying anyway---as soon as I do that it will trigger a 2p drop in the price.
Selling after making a small profit-----this will trigger a 2p rise almost immediately.
I wonder if i could sneak up on it and just buy or sell a few shares to confuse it???
You buying must be the reason, pretty impressive how you move markets, now will you sell some so the price rises, all the very best
Thank you Cowichan, I wonder what the final invoice for these services from ZH&P will be for representing Centamin for over 12 years against fictitious accusations.
Surely Centamin should be awarded a refund of legal costs and compensation for the company and its shareholders?
Centamin plummets on Egypt court ruling 12th Oct 2012
An administrative court in Egypt has annulled Centamin's mining licence, with the company denying the court has the jurisdiction to do so
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2012/10/31/tips-and-ideas/share-tips/tips-of-the-week/centamin-plummets-on-egypt-court-ruling-Y4wbthuULCZrH1ay6Vj9TK/article.html
No end in sight for Centamin legal fight over gold mine in Egypt
Cecilia Jamasmie | August 14, 2014
https://www.mining.com/no-end-in-sight-for-centamin-legal-fight-over-gold-mine-in-egypt-56904/
Centamin recovers ground after launching appeal against Egyptian court ruling
This article is more than 11 years old
Gold miner says it has documents showing ministerial approval, which were not among papers presented at court
Nick Fletcher
Mon 5 Nov 2012 15.33 GMT
Centamin has recovered some of the ground which it lost last week on reports an Egyptian court had ruled its rights to operate the Sukari gold mine were invalid.
The reports wiped around 40% off its share price, but the company has eased some of the concerns, and they have bounced back 16.25p to 76.75p, a 27% increase which makes it the biggest riser in the FTSE 250
https://www.theguardian.com/business/marketforceslive/2012/nov/05/centamin-court-egypt-gold-mine
Thank you Cowichan, I wonder how much ZH&
24th April 2024
The technical picture still points to further price gains for the precious metal, according to OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong.
Wong points out that the Gold/Copper ratio has stayed above support since late November and has remained within a major ascending channel in place since Oct. 15, 2021. “Therefore, the current configuration of the ratio suggests that there is still a relatively higher demand for gold as a hedging asset for stagflation risk.”
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-04-24/sharp-daily-declines-dont-spell-end-golds-bull-run-oandas-kelvin-wong
Of course, you haven’t lost anything unless you sell. There’s a good chance late summer Centamin will surpass this high and also depends what POG does.
I’m sorry you bought at £1.27 Paul, fingers crossed for you. My feeling is gold is heading back to around £2100, so a slow drop for Centamin. But y’know, no matter how you paint it, it’s all guesswork in the end.
I see we are currently down 4p to 121.7? Is there any particular reason for that-------other than me buying some at 127 last week?