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I agree the manipulators aim to create as many trades up and down in any period as possible , obliviously the bigger the fluctuations in prices they can influence the more profit they make and then it starts all over again!
Bryn85,
Ok well lets start worrying about that when POG is at $1800 again.
The price dropped from $1800 down to $1100 because miners increased output and the scrap gold market exploded leading to massive oversupply. Over the last few years the market has tightened again hence the price increase
I don't doubt there is plenty of unethical behavior going on
Several banks have been fined recently for spoofing the precious metals markets
I just don't believe there is a big conspiracy to keep gold prices low
Traders spoof prices lower into weakness based on the balance of orders but conversely they spoof prices higher into strength
They are only interested in making money, they are agnostic with regards to the price direction
The manipulation of the gold and other markets was going on long before 2008 (Nixon) although the manipulation of market prices certainly helped bring about the 2008 crash
Pushme if you made films that prove that there is no corruption or unethical behaviour going in in the futures/synthetics markets then you should show them to Jeremy Lefroy MP he would be very interested to see them as he is asking for information on the manipulation of the precious metals markets.
If you have come to the conclusion that the manipulation of precious metals prices is just a conspiracy theory then possibly you weren't looking or had access to the right places or the conclusion of your films had already been decided.
I am sure that other forum members would also be interested in your films, perhaps you should consider posting a link to them?
(London Gold Market) and gold futures derivatives (COMEX). This trading creates paper gold supply out of thin air and is also highly leveraged and fractional in nature since the paper gold claims are only fractionally backed by real physical gold.
In any other walk of life this would be regarded as a scam and the people doing it would be brought to account.
(London Gold Market) and gold futures derivatives (COMEX). This trading creates paper gold supply out of thin air and is also highly leveraged and fractional in nature since the paper gold claims are only fractionally backed by real physical gold.
If this is so then why is the price of actual gold bullion affected by by the trading in the paper markets?
These highly leveraged synthetic gold trades are immoral and unethical and serve no justifiable useful purpose whatsoever.
All just based around demand and supply ?
This statement is absolute rubbish, we have all witnessed what happens to our SP & the POG when huge buy or sell orders for synthetic or non existent gold are placed , their main purpose is to create trades by causing panic which drive the price of real gold whichever way those controlling the markets desire.
The synthetic markets have far reaching and damaging effects on the environment and ordinary peoples communities,livelihoods and futures
Pushmepullyou,
Its a very strange world at the moment, in mentioning that you don't believe in conspiracy theories re 'hook nose men' manipulating world financial markets. I have something to add, there is a conspiracy theory that russian bots are behind these anti Israel conspiracy theories. If you spend sometime on Zerohedge its obvious there is an orchestrated campaign going on here. So the russian bot theory makes sense to me.
Of course you are right and I could not disagree that futures, which started as hedging, is full of wild speculation, but speculation based on where people expect fundamentals to go, ie oil embargo’s reducing supply, rising economy increasing it, weather affecting cocoa etc. Of course in gold fundamentals are more esoteric as based on view of world worry and interest rates, also of course efforts were made to manipulate silver (easier than gold as smaller) but killed the Hunts, tho also because of rule change. However I overall still agree with Bryn that the wild speculators add masses of liquidity to a market that is ultimately driven by fundamental supply and demand. And that conspiracy theories, as in the 30’s of a few hook nosed men manipulating all the world financial markets, leads to a very unfortunate place
Pushmepullyou,
You made a film about futures and you didn't see it all as highly leveraged wild speculation ? But think it is all just based around demand and supply ?
Bryn thinks this is like Shale and when the price increases they will just drill a few more wells and turn the taps on. Oil is made underground, Gold was made only in space.
Bryn, I quite agree, the people who buy futures also have to sell them, as in any futures market (I have made films about them, so spent time in different futures markets around the world), many commodities have many times more paper than the actual thing,(total $1.2quadrillion Worldwide) but as you say although there can be short term aberrations in the end it is supply and demand, though with gold the extra production due to rising price is only tiny, so mainly a question of demand, and that is how safe people and countries feel, and real interest rates, as we have seen.
The frightening thing is how after a big recession like 2008 we get populist leaders, undermining the fourth estate which is a vital pillar of democracy, and a rise in conspiracy theories about everything, including the gold market or even the Centamin price, plus blame it all on the Jew/the continental worker/immigrants. Whether you feel pro or anti Brexit the stirling of all the above is truly frightening, imho, so believing in fundamentals doesn’t only make better sense but is not bolstering the fear of the time. Imho
Bryn85,
No conspiracy paper gold is hugely leveraged and so bears little resemblance to the physical demand and supply.
'Financial market prices are generally set by the trading venues which command the highest trading volumes and liquidity. This is also true of the gold market where the venues with the highest gold trading volumes – the London over-the-counter and COMEX gold futures markets – establish the international gold price.
However, these two gold markets merely trade paper gold claims in the form of unallocated gold positions (London Gold Market) and gold futures derivatives (COMEX). This trading creates paper gold supply out of thin air and is also highly leveraged and fractional in nature since the paper gold claims are only fractionally backed by real physical gold.
Although these highly leveraged synthetic gold trades have nothing to do with the transacting of physical gold, perversely they still establish the international gold price because physical gold markets merely inherit the gold prices derived in these ‘high liquidity’ paper gold markets.
BullionStar maintains that these paper gold markets cannot price physical gold accurately because they don’t trade physical gold, instead they trade infinitely scalable fractional claims on a smaller amount of physical gold. The international gold price is thus an artificial gold price totally removed from supply and demand in the physical gold markets.'
I disagree personally, I don't buy into the conspiracy theories.
Gold is probably at fair value at the moment - if it goes much higher and stays there then a lot of resources with are not economic at say $1200 will get the finance needed to be extracted and in a few years time prices will crash
The same thing happened when gold spiked up to $1800 which caused the drop down to $1200
Why would anyone want to manipulate the price of gold? Of course bank trading desks will push the price around a bit as they do for all assets but there is no conspiracy there just trading desks doing what they do in my opinion...
Bryn85,
In my view the price of gold as got very little to do with physical demand. Its all paper speculation, fear and greed etc.
Gold is always weak going into December, January is traditionally gold's best month, lots of physical demand in China and India around then for various festivals etc
POG moved from 1250 to 1500 pretty quickly it needs a retrace before the next leg up on my opinion
Auson, actually the high amount of longs in my mind is quite bearish. That said I don't think we'll go below 1400. Holding the key support level of 1490 is important atm. We're at 1488 as I write. We shall see...
Bryn85,
Well maybe you will get your buy in ( I hope not ) There are still 277,000 net long gold contracts, which is very high. I Think each contract is 100 troy ounces so the value of the bets is $4.124Billion.
Also worth looking at Gold Nov 2020 contracts the price today is $1523 nearly $40 higher than the front month contract.
Do world events or even market conditions really justify such a gold price pull back?
Or is that those control markets have decided to knock back POG because it suits their present trading strategy?
I think £1 looks like a good re entry point
Gold price is well overdue a pull back
I think we will see $1380 region before Christmas