Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Somebody on here ( I can't remember who ) suggested that investor demand for gold was dependent on market expectations of future ' real ' interest rates which is a view I subscribe to. When inflation is higher than interest rates , then cash starts losing its value and that creates a demand for gold ..
If the talk of increasing interest rates at the same time as reducing monetary easing is correct , then that will be a deflationary act which won't help the price of gold
Indeed hindsight is such a great thing, if only we had known that pit wall was going to crack!
HI Tornadotony,
Incredible the US makes a complete mess of it's unjustifiable and unnecessary military campaign and occupation of Afghanistan before bailing out abandoning its trusting allies and the Afghan people but leaving Europe and the UK to deal with the displaced people and the other consequences, but that's OK as long as the US infrastructure spending is still the cards !
Special relationship my ar*se, it's one that we would have been better off without!
cont-
New data from the Caixin survey of Chinese manufacturers yesterday said that the sector shrank in November, while factory activity-growth in the 19-nation Eurozone and the UK also missed forecasts to edge back further from the summer's record rate of expansion on the Markit PMI index.
With London's FTSE All Share trading 2.3% lower from this time last month, the UK gold price in Pounds per ounce today set new 1-month lows with a dip below £1330.
Euro gold bullion bar prices held near 4-week lows beneath €1565 as the EuroStoxx 600 index lost 1.6% for the day, near its weakest since mid-October.
"The best case for gold is high but decelerating inflation," reckons analysts at Canadian brokerage T.D.Securities, because "[it] may leave the US central bank comfortable keeping the economy running hot for longer."
Thursday, 12/02/2021 14:23
GOLD BARS in London's wholesale bullion market traded at their cheapest in a month on Thursday, dipping below $1770 per ounce as global stock markets and commodity prices fell yet again following US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's "pivot" towards tapering new QE faster and raising interest rates sooner in the face of the worst inflation in 3 decades.
Government debt prices rose, in contrast, edging longer-term borrowing costs lower as more countries imposing travel restrictions and quarantines, with new cases of Omicron confirmed worldwide and South Africa saying it has become the dominant variant of Covid-19 locally with infections doubling in 24 hours.
Since setting a 6th consecutive new record high on 8th November, the MSCI World Index has now fallen in 10 of the following 17 sessions, losing 5% from that peak.
Crude oil meantime fell Thursday near $65 per barrel of US benchmark WTI, the cheapest since late-August and nearly $20 below late-October's 7-year high.
Silver prices extended the drop in gold bars to test their cheapest Dollar level since end-September's 14-month lows, dipping overnight through $22.20 per ounce as platinum tried but failed to recover last weekend's level, dropping back almost 2% inside 1 hour Thursday lunchtime in London.
"Jay Powell effectively jettisoned the Fed's previous stance," says the Financial Times about this week's testimony to Congress from the US central bank's chairman.
"[This] sent a clear message to markets: combating inflation...is now the top priority [meaning] a faster reduction of the central bank's massive bond-buying programme [plus] leeway to raise interest rates more quickly than expected."
Ahead of Friday's key US jobs data for November, new claims for jobless benefits rose less-than-expected last week on new figures today, with continuing claims falling harder than forecast.
But inflation forecasts in the bond market have now fallen to the lowest in 8 weeks, predicting 2.44% per year between now and 2031 – fully one-third of a percentage point below mid-November's series record high and almost 4 percentage points below October's actual annual pace of CPI inflation.
Five-year breakevens have also seen their steepest plunge since the Covid Crash hit global financial markets in March 2020, dropping almost 0.5 percentage points inside 2 weeks.
The more respected 5-over-5 measure of bond-market forecasts now sees US inflation averaging 2.18% between 2026 and 2031, near the lowest reading in a month and back below its average across the decade ending as the Covid pandemic began in New Year 2020.
Prices paid by US manufacturers edged back in November on the ISM's index of input costs, but held at what would be a decade-record if not for 2021's earlier surge.
Cont
Another issue to bear in mind is a conflict anywhere on the globe that requires USA intervention for any prolonged length of time Indeed the withdrawal from Afghanistan was essential in order for USA to have any hope of expending on its infrastructure. So any efforts around Taiwan, Ukraine that would enlist USA expenditure are probably not on the cards. In fact USA might be able to handle a Grenada like event with a quick conclusion ran more like a military exercise. The cost of any conflict would mean the default rate would be under 2% or serious cuts in other USA expenditure.
In theory, USA debt at $29 trillion dollars has an interest charge of $418B per annum. This equates to 58% of the entire Defence budget that maintains USA status. For a 1% interest hike $290B of added interest goes on the bill. At 3% interest charges are amongst the highest cost in the entire USA budget surpassing Social security and so forth at $1.28 trillion per year. At 5% the USA would probably be unable to service its debt and the value of the dollar defaults.
As inflation increases and if wages do not keep up to pay higher taxes the debt accelerates further as the revenue shrinks as public sector costs rise. So the model projections on interest rate hikes would need to be lower and a default event in these circumstances is probably at 3.5% interest. The dollar today is appreciating against gold when we have an economic risk event such as omicron generating a new wave of Covid. This could drive up future debt ratios even higher as more private sector income generating services take another hit. Consequently today's drop in gold price is utterly perverse. Additionally what is the time scale before inflation falls below 3.5% as only at that point gold has a positive interest rate working against it. I personally doubt if interest rates will fall to that level in 2022. In fact so many future costs are baked into the pie already.
In theory , I think the true cost of Gold is the AISC but without margin...this is 'cost' we are referring to rather than "price " which would include a profit margin and would therefore be higher.
In reality a few other things would come into effect
1. Different producers have different AISC so the true cost of gold varies from one company to another. As an example the cash cost per ounce of gold produced for Centamin is approx $ 850 ..it's AISC is around $1,200.
By comparison , for Endeavour mining , their AISC is only $850, which barely covers the cash cost of production for Centamin
2. Gold mines would carry on in the short term even if the gold price fell below these amounts , but eventually the pits would be " mothballed " when the gold price fell below the cash cost of production ..this makes sense because the more gold they produced , the greater their losses would be ..
3. Gold production would still continue if the price fell below AISC but above the cash cost , because by doing so the company would be recovering at least some of their fixed costs. .obviously that couldn't continue indefinitely
4. In view of the different AISC of the different mining companies , Centamin would mothball its production before Endeavour ..thus reducing global supply when it did so ...this process would continue, company by company , until supply had diminished to the level to satisfy the corresponding level of demand.
50 % of gold is consumed in jewellery and around 10% by industry , mainly tech companies and a further 10 % approx by central banks , so a new equilibrium gold price would be reached to rebalance the supply/demand equation , to satisfy this underpinning demand .
Regarding the investor demand for gold , the picture is less clear , would investor demand increase with falling gold prices and thus increase the price of gold or would the reverse happen ..who knows ..
Back on omicron or moronic as I call it…
More positive news from GSK to add to the other positive news… “it’s covid-19 antibody treatment looks to be effective against the new omicron variant. Lab tests of the mutations found in the variant showed the drug is still active against the virus”
Ooops meant replace so with sp- doh!
Replace sp with so in last para- when will there be an edit button on this site!
What’s interesting here is that it’s a stock with a primary driver- gold. For example gold just dropped down to ~1770 but markets going up on US open, so although gold dropped , CEY bounced off todays bottom as, after all, it’s a stock.
I work on odds, and of course intra day gold price makes the biggest difference to intra day so in most time- when no more news is around and sentiment hasn’t significantly altered.
It depends what cryptos you pick- I invest in the top ones only as a balance- as you say very high risk which is why lowest % investment of my portfolio. I wish, of course, not taken out profits several times along the way- but still overall pleased. As I’ve said before, I will not be upping my investment as a % of my portfolio as happy with where it is - am closely watching goldies as I trade these with my cash.
Yes, pretty brutal times here at the mo, I trade around data points- hopefully some relief on NFP tomorrow- may trade around then and of course the 8th which will be well worth tuning into and is in my diary :-).
SteveJones999,
Its done really well as I'm sure you have also, I just see it as nothing more than a speculative investment thats all. After all investing in one or more of the coins is not investing in the blockchain technology itself.. is that correct in your view ?
Anyway CEY taking quite a battering today !
If someone had put their £100k in btc 5 years ago it would be worth ~£7m now... what is it worth in gold miners now (incl. divis of course).
Hindsight is, of course, a wonderful thing and risk was very high. But it was the same old tulip, ponzi arguments then also...
Would you put £100k in now? Only you can answer this, dependant on your views...
It's ever evolving- this is my point on crypto.
It's really a simple question, like every other investment- if you believe in it invest, if you don't, don't.
I'm not here to convince you either way, like everyone else, investment decisions are your own affair.
Good luck with whatever you decide.
What Dogecoin Reveals About Future of American Economy — Down the Middle with DiMartino Booth
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaxRe2iuQKc
How Banks Work & Dictate the Economy
Economist Danielle DiMartino Booth sits down with Professor Richard Werner. In this interview they talk about how banking works, the role it plays in society and what quantitative easing really is. Reach out to Werner on twitter @ProfessorWerner
About the guest: Richard Andreas Werner is a German banking and development economist who is a university professor at De Montfort University.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8j51XZegsk
U.S. Nov Fed Meeting Minutes Signal Concerns of High Inflation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIO_YP9QGC8
Powell still sees inflation drop — DiMartino Booth gives insight via Bloomberg Markets
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_6FiXCp_Mo
Stevejones999,
I would argue the correct price for gold is an acceptable margin plus ASIC plus exploration, plus refining. Before you even get into demand vs supply. Just out of interest if say you wanted to buy something with Paypal worth £100 how do you use Bitcoin for this transaction ?
Hi Kando,
Ten years of austerity under Cameron and Osboune and the behind the scenes privatisation of the NHS had just about made it unfit for purpose or able to deliver the services it should have been able to in a timely manner.
The architect of austerity and the face of Project Fear, the legacy of George Osborne’s six years as Chancellor of the Exchequer is a complex one. His career since leaving No 11 Downing Street has been no less controversial; at one point, while still an MP, he simultaneously held six outside jobs, before stepping down in 2017 for a career in journalism and banking.
George Osborne: More NHS powers should be devolved to English metro mayors
https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/george-osborne-more-nhs-powers-should-be-devolved-to-english-metro-mayors
https://www.digitalhealth.net/2012/12/osborne-protects-nhs-from-austerity/
In particular, the government’s refusal to properly fund the NHS’s sibling service, social care, demonstrates both of the main traits associated with "austerity logic": social negligence and economic illiteracy.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/austerity-nhs-theresa-may-billion-pounds-magic-money-tree-conservative-party-a8413151.html
Deaths are what can be counted most easily – bodies can’t be hidden from the statisticians or denied by those responsible for the figures. It was predictable, and predicted, that many more would die when the government of David Cameron, George Osborne and Nick Clegg applied a brutal tourniquet to public spending in 2010. Warnings at the time were shrugged off as shroud-waving and scaremongering.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/15/tory-austerity-deaths-cut-human-cost-cruel-policy
The pandemic has exposed that it was'nt scare mongering the NHS has been rendered unable to deliver its core services at an acceptable level and the pandemic is being used as a convenient diversion, also Brexit has also resulted in many more unfilled NHS vacancies for support staff making things even worse,
Despite spending billions on Covid boosters there seems to be no end in sight as new variants seem to be mutating in the countries that cant afford vaccines, so why not actuality give them some!
Doesn't mean higher gold prices though- what, after all, is the correct price for gold?
On crypto (I hold majors not just BTC)- the obvious ones are greater regulation = more increase in adoption, increased adoption from payment applications like PayPal will give far more people easy access to cryptocurrency, crypto credit cards starting, crypto new yet already market cap nearly a third of gold, the first Bitcoin ETF debuting on the New York Stock Exchange recently.
As I've consistently said, it's not either/or for gold PMs and crypto, it's both for me.
Crypto is my highest risk asset and lowest % invested, next are PMs- mad how people invest in PMs as they see as low risk when a wall could drop (CEY Oct2020) or politics hit at any time (recent Hochs).
Of course, u can lose the lot on crypto, but I still keep my investment, as it has given me back my original investment over 3 times, and still I have a greater amount in the game that I original invested.
A balanced portfolio is key.
5 years ago, detractors said "tulip all over again"... "the emperor has no clothes"... etc etc etc. It's not the detractors they need convincing like most things... Look at PMs from the highs in Aug2020 to see how high risk they are...
And yet I still here the same old lazy arguments against.
We are still in the early the early stages- major change does sometimes take a while to grip- look at the drop in tech bubble post y2k but now look at the value of several of those companies now- same lazy arguments were used back then.
SteveJones999,
How about
Inflation increasing mining cost across the board should reduce exploration spend. Central bank bullion buying ?
Just out of interest what is the case for Bitcoin rising from here ?
I took it as good on the moronic (anagram) variant. Mutations are often less impactful.
Israel also saying less problematic.
World panicking, I don't know why they name it Panikos.
I will be getting my booster as am double jabbed.
Markets seen as toppy, hence reaction.
As for gold- hard to fathom in last few months- finding it hard to build a case for a big jump in the short term, based on previous months.
Hopefully the 8th can help us- all PMs remain undervalued in my view.
It's still too early to tell either way, but as far as the current narrative of it probably being much milder than delta, it's probably sensible to take that hopeful thinking with a pinch of salt. The SA doctor who purportedly reported it, who cited treating a 30 something patient with "mild" symptoms as testimony to it being less severe, on the same day her government were - understandably - distraught and frantic about the wave of travel restrictions just placed on them, just seemed a little too contrived, a little too coerced, like she'd been leant on by the powers above to downplay it to limit the damage to the economy in peak tourism season. If it had been a long list of over 60s with mild symptoms and not a solitary 30 something, it might have served as more useful, albeit, still anecdotal evidence.
Ultimately it's going to take another two weeks before we begin to know the impact on how morbidity, as deaths seem to trail case numbers by about 25 days.
The first thing coming down the pipe is that it is far more transmissible than the delta variant. Hospitalisations in South Africa are starting to move up. Omicron is more problematic in children compared to previous Covid-19 variants.