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Hi Dasut. I just meant that if the £350 million in the bank was part of the reason for the share price being over £2 at the time, that if they got to that amount again, with the business seeming to be in better shape that the share price should be over the £2 mark.
Mind you Dasut they did chuck rather a lot of money down the lavatory on projects they have since walked away from, although granted t was just as well they had some spare cash considering the clear up costs of Pardey and Co's mess!
I take your point Dasut, but those in the industry can be communicated with on their level at any another time during the course of business, these presentations are an opportunity for the CEO to inform share holders and excite potential investor's of a much wider audience.
There inst anything wrong in fact its it's preferable rather like "BBC Any questions" to have an experienced chairperson/journalist /CEO /PR Officer to conduct the meeting and direct the questions those with the relevant expertise and understanding to answer them.
It's restoration of confidence in the company now that is paramount and that is best achieved by excellent communication catering for all levels of understanding of a much wider audience than just those in the mining industry.
Paul, I wasn't sure if having £350 million sitting in the bank with interest rates at close to zero was actually doing them any good and at the end of the day it was a false profit.
OK you have to realise Horgan is a Mining Engineer not a public speaker also he is used to addressing people in the Industry and I don't have any problem understanding or following what he is saying and like his enthusiasm.
I once attended a mining presentation and soon understood that they talk a different language to the guys that up until then I dealt with like Civil Engineers, muck shifters and Plant Hire types.
Miners believe it or not are far more detailed and cover the whole gambit and from the mining presentation it became obvious that I needed as least one mining engineer on my team and never looked back.
I also attended a presentation where they employed an actor to deliver the presentation and to be honest it lost the passion and fortunately I was told that the presenter was an actor after the presentation because I was far from impressed. The reason for the actor was because the author of the presentation wasn't confident in presenting to the people in that specific audience as it consisted of politicians, dignitaries, bankers and also government consultants. The presenter didn't answer any questions and passed questions to other members of the team.
They were successful with the project and most of the audience went away happy so guess it is horses for courses.
Well said Paul,
i do apologise I misspelt your name in my previous reply to you!
Tibbs
Hi Dasut,
I fully appreciate that in effect over the past 4 years we have been paying a heavy price the processes the previous management should have been doing out as a matter of course, although unless i misunderstand had the these waste clearance procedures been carried out as part of the day to day operation as they should have been it would have been much easier at that time and far less expensive than doing it over the past four years.
Paul is correct I did post that Martin Horgan really had only one option to do whatever needed to be done it the objective was to make the Sukari operation safe and commercially viable.
Martin Horgan hasn't upset me, although his presentations irritate me, he is is obviously highly experienced and competent in running a commercial mine, however that said unfortunately his presentations are always far to rushed, Martin rattles through a huge range of issues at such speed that their is'nt enough time for the audience to adsorb the facts and so the presentation loses much of its intended purpose.
If only Martin would just slow down and pause at times, he would be far more convincing, pauses serve critical functions for both the speaker and the audience during a presentation
For the speaker, a brief pauses allow time to breathe, to emphasize key points, transition between ideas which can prevent rambling and importantly for the audience the pauses provide time to digest information and understand non verbal cues from the speaker.
If only Martin would get into the habit of slowing down a little and making some pauses his presentations would be more convincing and have far more impact!
You did quote 2.3 year pay back, I just though it wise to allow for any unforeseen expenditure etc.
I really do hope that Martin Horgan and his team prove that they are in a different league to the Pardey & Co, lets hope they prove it and deliver
That seems a pretty fair summing up to me. Given the situation when e took over, he seems to have been getting things put into place that need too be and should have been before e took over. I think MR T ? put up a post over a year ago where someone had said that Horgan was doing what needed to be done?
I think you are right that the time to judge is coming soon. With the waste contact coming to an end, hopefully AISC will be at the lower end of the the estimated figures for the coming year and the POG will hold at these levels. IF that happens we should get a decent dividend.
What will it take for that and a good rise in the share price? Well when we were up in the £2's , I think they had around £350 million in the bank? If they got anywhere near that figure, the share should be flying as Horgan has made the mine a properly working mine and not a short term, high grading , Ponzi scheme.
Tibbs I didn't say that I have an aversion to Cut and Paste what I said is I re read the Doropo 2023 Technical Report and the cut and paste message is basically all covered in this report.
You keep on making reference to things that happened prior to 4 years ago. Tell me what Horgan has done to upset you not what the previous twits did.
Like you I am equally p....d off with the blind alley that Horgan and his team found themselves in when a relatively minor mining occurrence of some unstable ground occurred, if it hadn't been noticed and a slip occurred then this would/could have been a serious mining issue. This minor occurrence turned into a major issue because there was nowhere else to go.
Had Horgan had time to layout and present a plan to get back to basics then I am sure the impact on the SP wouldn't have been anywhere near as dramatic, but regardless of the earth moving I am sure he was already putting plans in motion because decisions were made quickly and more contractors than just Capital had been asked to provide numbers relating to a major waste removal project.
Yes he has spent a fortune but the fortune he has spent is what should have been spent by the previous twits .
The time to judge Horgan and his team is fast approaching when the Capex is to be reduced considerably in the line of catch up. Planned Capex is still important however as equipment gets older, further developing cost savings relating to power sees a return so positive to improving the bottom line. Exploration into new resources is also important as all businesses need to grow their saleable assets.
All new developments relating to mining come with high risk and Doropo is no different. Little Sukari sounds promising but unless someone has previous knowledge of the potential very little will be seen by the way of ounces for several years, and time is a risk in itself.
I am not having a go at you I am just trying to take the emotion out of the discussion and ask what numbers don't you like or understand and the said pay back isn't 3 years it is 2.3 years.
Hi Dasut,
I hadn't realised your aversion to cutting and pasting informati , if you care to think back there wasn't any sensitivity or aversion to cut and pastes of all manner of information from fellow members whilst the court case and other manner of unforeseen troubles had befallen Centamin.
Possibly its also worth taking into account that not all shareholders consult the detailed and possibly daunting reports to the less experienced eye on the Centamin home page and find it useful to be able to dip into the most relevant parts via an internet chat forum.
I am a a loss as to how else I could share the email replies of the emails I received other than cutting and pasting.
l understand that this is a Centamin forum, but my point was retail shareholders are in the main treated with scant regard by the vast majority company CEO's and BOD and all too often presented with slick PR presentations predicting fantastic returns to reel them but that that all too often fail to deliver!
I am unable to share your confidence that Centamin is being entirely transparent to retail investors, from past experience I see every reason to remain cautiously sceptical for the time being.
Whilst Centamin has gone through hugely expensive four year reset, as yet we are yet to see some proof in the pudding as it were , I am still wondering will the March update delight or disappoint ,that is the burning question.
As I have expressed in the past and as you are no doubt aware there are many other market factors and certainly now more than ever worldwide political uncertainties and policies of aggression meaning that even what may be perceived as reliable stable or safe West African jurisdictions might well become quite different very rapidly.
I am sure that I am not alone in hoping that these initial Doropo exploration reports turn out to be reliable and you are right about the payback time and the commercial viability,
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade
-Public Finances: A sustained increase in government debt/GDP, for example, driven by a failure to implement fiscal consolidation measures or a material slowdown in GDP growth
-Structural Features: Renewed deterioration in political stability or aggravation of security incidents, for example, a flare-up of political violence
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-affirms-cote-d-ivoire-at-bb-outlook-stable-02-02-2024
Tibbs yes thanks as I have said I recently re read the 2023 Technical Report so there is nothing new in your cut and paste. The good thing about Cote D'Ivoire other than they speak French is that there is as I have said many times considerable experience in mining. Far more than was/is in Egypt especially if you take in additional people who will inevitably be looking for work from Mali and Burkina. It is common place in West Africa because of ECOWAS to have experienced migrant workers filling important roles. I am not talking people sitting behind desks because they will mainly be from cooler climates the important people are the guys on the ground this is where things actually get done.
From what I can see other than the resource being split over a number of areas it is a straight forward open pit operation that can be done by a local contractor or from what I am hearing maybe owner mining. If the later then they must be confident of how straight forward the resource is to manage.
I know what you are saying about the market in general but this is a Centamin discussion board and we were making reference to what is going on at Centamin.
As for putting share certificates in a drawer and forgetting about them you certainly don't do that if you are investing in mining.
Hi 3bear,
To be honest I don't see either as being low risk, but I think Egypt has less risk of insurgency, although the economy is in a mess and the political suppression isn't good!
I'm still not convinced about Doropo pay back time, too many unknown factors!
Tibbs - it may be that Cote D'Ivoire is politically and financially more stable than Egypt at the minute, does that affect your view?
Cont-
The June 2021 PEA outlines that the Doropo project is a series of individual resource deposits rather than one singular deposit like Sukari,
, with deposit grades ranging from ~1.0g/t to 1.7g/t, depending on the way the pit optimisation were run it will have generated open pit shells from those deposits (albeit using updated drilling data from the PFS). The grade dispersion will vary with the geology and the drilling information/density. As such, portions of those pits will be at lower grades and in the Inferred Resource category.
Tibbs
Hi Dasut,
My remarks on lies and innuendo weren't specifically at Centamin but on the way the whole stock market industry operates.
Doropo
I,m not at all convinced that this area is politically stable or will remain free from some sort of incursion from rebel groups .
As to the reports I remain suspicious that the projects will turn out to be more expensive than is being estimated and although a three year payback is envisioned and would be ideal the reality of that remains to be seen.
You may find this information from Centamin of interest-
In response to your first email around the purpose of the update.
• Earlier in the year we had committed to updating the market on the Doropo pre-feasibility study ("PFS"), the announcement was following through on that with an update of the various work streams and their various stages of completion.
• The update also enabled us to communicate the following:
o Firstly, that we had identified an opportunity to make significant capital and operating cost savings within the processing circuit.
o Secondly that in pursuing this opportunity publication of the PFS was being deferred until we had completed the necessary test work to evaluate the cost saving opportunity, to ensure we published the most comprehensive PFS based on available data.
• Finally, the update was also necessary to communicate the updated Mineral Resource Estimate (“MRE”), which demonstrated a significant improvement in grade from the preliminary economic assessment ("PEA")
As mentioned in the recent full year results, we look forward to publishing the results of the completed PFS in June this year.
In response to the second
The grades in the MRE update are correct. The data was prepared by and under the supervision of the Group Qualified Persons, Howard Bills, Group Exploration Manager, Craig Barker, Group Mineral Resource Manager, and Mike Millad, the independent Qualified Person from Cube Consulting Pty Ltd. All are geoscientists who fulfil the requirements of being a "Qualified Person(s)" under the CIM Definition Standards.
In the June 2021, we published the PEA MRE and in November 2022 we published an update. Historically the Inferred Resource grade was at 1.13g/t, and this was updated to 1.14g/t. Previously the Mineral Resources were unconstrained (at any gold price, which is not unusual for an early stage study). When we published the November 2023 update, the Mineral Resources were constrained within US$2,000/oz open pit shells to outline the scale of the Mineral Resource that has the potential to become economically viable to extract at our reserve evaluation gold price of US1450/oz. This is a more rigorous approach involving the application of the Reasonable Prospects for Eventual Economic Extraction ("RPEEE") criterion reflected in most current reporting codes. The June 2021 PEA outlines that the Doropo project is a series of individual resource deposits rather than one singular deposit like Sukari
Tibbs I am not a trader and yes looking back at history certainly has it's merits if done in the relatively short term.
As such Centamin provides very useful data on their Interactive Analyst spreadsheets, which allows us to see what impact certain positive and negative issues have had on production.
This helps me as an investor to look at the underlying numbers and trends.
Contrary to lies and innuendos I find Centamin in the last few years to be transparent to investors.
Also I have again read through the 2023 Technical Report for Doropo and see this prospect as a positive especially an estimated 2.3 year pay back.
So other than your worries relating to security what are your areas of concern?
Somnamma,
I appreciate that traders point of view is very different to that of an investor, traders and indeed computor driven logarithms care not a jot about whether those making claims on behalf of the company are being truthful, or if they have any integrity because their prime objective is to maximise their quick profit or return out of fluctuations or spikes in the share price of a particular company that is a result of more often than not claims of future guidance without any sound evidence to substantiate them and once the farce is realised the same traders likely then take short positions in order to makefile from the company share price going into free-fall.
To state that looking back is just history and no longer relevant is preferable for a trader because they have no interest on the long prospects of the company, just a quick profit from a spike in share price which likely turns out to be unjustified and based on some unsubstantiated claim from a company director whose priority is to gloss over the flaws in the company strategy draw their bonuses and fill their boots with swag then likely once the truth evident move on to another company where they will repeat scam and screw the next lot of what they regard as gullible investors!
This what is wrong with the whole market system, it exists on the basis of lies and innuendo, rather then integrity and sustainable sound and reliable long term performance.
As the market system to a large extent is based around charts and data of historical performance so then surely any investor should base their decisions to a large extent understanding the historical fundamentals and sustainable performance potential of a company, rather then short term data based on unsubstantiated claims that are more akin to wishful thinking.
An investor should be able to buy shares in a company put the certificates in drawer and forget about them for the long term reasonably confident that they will appreciate, unlike traders whose only interest is a quick profit over the shortest possible period.
Ok Steve you have said it (expressed your opinion) so why bang on about it ?
I really appreciate and value your posts on trading and data, in fact look forward to them.
But how about having respect for other posters views and opinions, and if you don't have anything of factual or logical value to add just ignore the post and move on. Or debate the post from a factual / logical aspect.
No need to trash the topic without explanation or justification or belittle the poster for the topic of thier post.
The problem is on your approach Mr T- to make money you have to predict.
Everything you wrote is obvious and doesn’t help predict anything or timeline.
Sorry to be blunt, but I say it as see it.
If anyone is wondering what the future share price may be then they need to appropriate the reasons why it is where it is today are factors such the cost of the very generous ongoing profit share agreement and that the contribution from the underground is crucial to supplement the unreliable and mediocre open pit grades.
Any hope of some decent rise rise in share price from increased guidance and lower AISC is directly related to the efficiency of the underground operation.
As yet their is little to substantiate the hopes/claims for the Doropo site which might turn out to be reasonable of it could be an expensive failure, as yet on what is known will have little positive effect on the future share price.
It is a great mistake o assume that there is going to be any substantial increase in share price until some proof of ongoing lower AISC and reliable and improved guidance is delivered,
Steve I have to agree history can't be changed and pretty much all of the culprits have gone and the new team are coming to an end of their announced 4 year reorganisation to get the mine back on track.
Yes it has been a painful 4 years but unfortunately there are many necessary evils that had to be suffered.
Tibbs the underground has always been crucial and that was known from day one and is why the mine design and plans are as they are. They actually got to the development stages of the underground earlier than I envisaged because early discussions were around sinking access into the lower reaches far later in proceedings.
Yes open pit will always be lower grades that is the geology but without the open pit the funds and considerable funds have been obtained from the open pit, the underground wouldn't have been possible without borrowing, and standing alone the ounces wouldn't have made the mine viable.
I think everyone agrees that Pardey was over promoted and wrong decisions came home to roost. Yes Horgan has spent a fortune but I have to begrudgingly admit some credit has to be given to the old guard because funds were available for the new team to spend.
The proof of whether Horgan and his team's decisions are the correct decisions will soon be known as I have said we are coming to the end of the 4 year cycle. No doubt the ship is steadier and we have seen some consistency and flexibility but proof of turning the ship around is hopefully to be seen by the year end, but starting with first quarter numbers.
Mr T,
Please focus on views on what the SP will be in the future and cease endless historical information that is all available should anyone want to find it.
The past is the past.
The key is the short, med and long term SP, and drivers that impact this.
The 2012 Centamin annual report the management were well aware of the significance of the underground workings and the need to develop them so that the higher underground grades could be used to compensate for the inerrant low grade problems of the open pit
See Centamin at a glance , overview – What Sets Us Apart para 1.
"In particular, the underground mine and regional
prospects offer significant potential to define further
resources."
See also 4. * An experienced team
* (Bunch of shyster's!)
Centamin’s management team and Board of Directors have considerable expertise in the gold mining industry. **
**(So they were fully aware then of the dangers of long term high grading?)
This ranges from the early stage identification of deposits,project financing, construction and development, to the operating of large mines.
Some of the leadership team has been based at Sukari for almost a decade, taking it from an early stage exploration project to the operating gold mine it is today. ***
***(Including an Elraghy brother who used to be a Cairo copper with a police academy certificate in post as Sukari general manager?)
Yet despite this claimed expertise within this BOD and management instead of acting responsibly by developing the underground operation they disregarded sound mining practice and went for a what they knew was a very high risk strategy of high grading the open pit for over half decade glossing over the truth for short term gain withoutv thought for long term consequences !
On the link below go to the top line then select Archive , then go to page numbers at the bottom scroll back to page 06 2012 annual repott
https://www.centamin.com/investors/results-reports/?year=archive
I appreciate that some may find it boring to read through these retrospective reports , but that said much of the detail makes it obvious all the things that Martin Horgan recognised needed doing on his arrival needed doing half a decade before, had they been then things would be very different now!