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Bully do us all a favour take your chat onto the GGP forum.
Hi Tiburn
That's the trouble with off shore fields everything is so expensive. If anything goes wrong with the drill or it has too much water in it that could be the end but on land it's fairly cheap to drill another and quicker to production.
I have moved to Ggp they already have a farm in partner who are doing the drilling. The difference in that farm in is Ggp have other proven multiple targets or future prospects and are needed by the farm in partner for continuation of the joint venture . BPC don't have that security they have numerous other unproven licenses.
I'm more than happy with my move except the BB is crammed
ATB:))
Thanks Bamps, appreciated.
Perhaps the answer lies in a smaller partner prepared to take on the drilling, perhaps needs wider consortia BPC have been alluding to in the past?
Your right though -production is the critical element, BPC can cobble $36m together to pay for one drill but forget production in Bahamas on their own.
all evaluated in Major business case models before they farm in - I read that those FPSO platforms are $600m- $800m each - needs ordering, take 2-3 years to build etc etc.
But if they strike big i would expect to see some interest even so, if they farm out 80% of the Bahamas asset should hopefully be enough return to fully fund CERP asset development if merger goes ahead.
Either way best of fortune to you.
It's worth holding just for the drilling results. Massive rise coming pre-drill as is usually the case with oilers.
Hi Tiburn
In these days of uncertainty with the oil price and covid any farm in is going to favour the farm in partner not the license holder. They have the upper hand at the moment the deal if any is going to be hard to achieve.
Most of the big oil firms are spending huge sums on renewables to reduce their carbon footprint.
BP certainly won't be one of the farmees they are pulling out of the Gulf, with Miami not far away even a small spillage could end up there with the prevailing winds, which firm is going to want that risk.
At 1 billion barrels I'm sure they may get offers but remember a small firm cannot afford to get this to production, the cost of the production vessel is huge. Big firms will not want to pay the going rate and certainly wouldn't want Cerp assets, so the % going forward for a free carry will be as low as the license holder will accept.
Wish you all the best if you intend to hang on in there, too many ifs for me.
Bamps
just a couple of questions as would value your opinion.
If P#1 strike for upwards of a billion barrels as targeted then likely a major would farm in to the company, how much could they pay BPC for joining up front?
And how much percentage could BPC retain going forward with free carry?
thanks
Well it's 3 years since Lk took over from Ritson and his 3 year plan hasn't materialised.
Share price of 2.5p taken down to below 1.7p and diluted with 3x more shares.
LK is a very charismatic leader who exudes optimism but the last year has seen the communication from him becoming very sparse, his optimism draining with outside influences becoming more prevalent.
His connection with small shareholders became an irritant for him .
This merger is the only way out for him although he may take the lead role in the new entity.
The P1 drill may be a world class find but I haven't seen or read about when the production is likely to commence. Once the drilling rig has been removed a well head would have been installed and this reminds me of Providence Resources off the coast of Cork where a well head was installed on a successful gas find. A joint venture was sought after and 10 years later nothing's happened except the sp crashingfrom £7 to 4p.
After 10 years with Cerp and loads of research notes the dream of the SWP coming to fruition snatched away for practically nothing, I am still devastated.
Every oil company I've been in with offshore assets has made me a loss, so I definitely did not want another.
Luckily I have reinvested my Cerp money away from oil and is £5k up already besides the extra loss of the lower sp.
The Saffron well S1 was not a great success and I'm expecting the COS for S2 to be a lot lower than S2. They will still have to use that very heavy drilling mud to cope with the mud diapirism so the same result might happen.
Everything Cerp own at the moment was originally instigated by NR , not LK no good running a company but tremendous knowledge, he found the SWP reservoirs.
2014 Proactive LGO presentation was very good.
LK though knew how to get them active although the Steel drum acquisitions looks like an expensive mistake.
What I am saying is don't follow LK blindly if you can't afford to lose a lot of your cash then you need to think about your investments now not later, a consolidation on merger is likely trapping you all.
Anyway whatever you choose to do good luck