Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
With the greatest of respect stt1 I’m in this share till they hit my target price or get bought out, regardless of the times you repeat your negative spin, as I did my research before buying.
GL sst1 and maybe one day you will start to look for some little gems to invest in like most of us do on this board, or did you lose all your monies CFD Trading?
1gw,
Cashing in options a couple of days after publishing bullish videos hoping to push the sp up is poor judgement and highly questionable, imo. Why should PIs buy in if execs are cashing in options as soon as they can?
Re sales performance:
My posting history is clear. I've repeatedly mentioned sales are slowing down and they did.
I've mentioned Boots sales being significantly lower as the year went on. There were also a lack of TUs etc..
As expected, H2 was significantly lower than H1. Why should that downtrend change?
Where do they say in the official TU that sales in Q3 or Q4 slowed?
It's only evident when you look at the figures.
"This strong result reflects the exceptional demand for our technologies across all markets due to the covid19 pandemic, but also a secular shift towards the heightened importance of infection prevention in all our markets, which we expect to continue into the new financial year and beyond. "
https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/2021-04-21-TU-approved-pdf.pdf
H1 published mid-Nov, which was mid Q3 and when we were in the middle of 2nd lockdown.
Where do they say sales are impacted by lockdowns?
"The Directors are pleased to report that trading remains at healthy levels, across all business units and product sales. Demand for IP licensing remains robust, with the team exploring multiple new opportunities both in the UK and internationally. "
https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Trading-Update-13.11.20.pdf
It's not at all questionable IMO. What is questionable is doing share transactions when you are in possession of inside information. Clearly the CEO and CFO, and probably the CTO and chairman, have a good idea of how the current year is going and what they might expect to happen this year.
It appears to me they made a good attempt to get the market as fully up to speed as they could without breaching confidentiality requirements (e.g. terms of Solvay commission). They published their view of FY21 figures and also through finnCap gave guidance on FY22, very early in the financial year. Through the videos they gave colour on how the business is going.
Having done that they then collectively exercised options and sold the resulting shares.
The chairman's options expire on 14th October i.e. just after the end of 1H. Clearly you would be unhappy (I presume) if he exercised options towards the end of 1H or in October before an end-half TU had been published. What about May or June or July? Well given the company does not normally publish TUs, that's difficult isn't it as he would likely be in possession of information on how sales and biz dev negotiations were going? Maybe he could wait until the full year results are published but then it's going to be the same position as now isn't it? The company will likely provide a TU and some interviews and if they are confident about the future that will come across in those presentations.
1gw
"All but 800k (presumably the CFO's) of the options were going to expire this calendar year, so there were not many windows left when they could reasonably have exercised/sold. When do you think they should have exercised/sold them if not now?"
We're in April, so it's still early part of the calendar year.
Questionable to cash in their options after publishing ultra bullish videos and a day after tstl profit warning... The timing is highly questionable and so soon as they could after the TU.
eg
Pg 72. of AR.
2019 2.8m cancelled with avg exercise price 3.77p
2020 8.5m cancelled with avg exercise price 8.9p ** the sp peaked at 9.4p after the Mail ramp....
https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/FY-2020-web.pdf
Boots sales significantly lower than a year ago.
H1 showed global consumer sales only increased by £590k over H1, Apr to Sept inc, which was during the higher demand period and now H2 is significantly lower than H1.
There's an element of doubt about the judgement of the management.
Do you think it would be better to sell before publishing a TU?
As far as I can see, they've played it by the book: publish a TU, give guidance for the current year and then exercise options and sell the resulting shares.
All but 800k (presumably the CFO's) of the options were going to expire this calendar year, so there were not many windows left when they could reasonably have exercised/sold. When do you think they should have exercised/sold them if not now?
Plantravel
"Perhaps stt1, you could have a look at this video, because I’m sure some of the concerns you have raised (over the past year or so) for the progress and success of BYOT would be alleviated, "
Like I said Execs are paid to be positive.
Didn't stop them cashing in their options (today's rns), did it?
Bullish videos last week, bullish TU.
Tstl issues profit warning Monday.
Byot execs cash in their options.
Why sell only days after bullish videos, TU and a day after tstl profit warning?
LOL not if he got them at 1.5p
I was on about the RNS, as saw this happen many moons ago with RAY
Surely looks to me like some retail investor finally ran out of patience and dumped their 600,000 shares, taking an absorbable loss. No big shakes.
Takeover IMO
Millions of shares sold today. Not sure why
I was disappointed by the interview. The CEO did not come across as particularly dynamic with a clear growth vision. It was more 'just keeping the status quo'. Whilst performance can be seen as significantly improved, if trading is expected to continue then I cannot understand paying off debt in preference to investing further in the business unless you have no strategy requirement to progress at this time. Little talk of further big sales pushes or collaborations.
The whole SP uplift is dependent up covid sales, as for IP or real value there is none and there is nothing different than what is already in the portfolios of other established suppliers. Covid sales will bottom out, the winners will be the ones with an actual product / product portfolio / claims platform / sales & marketing capacity.
As explained on all the other message boards you've posted that the only bright side to Trisel was there disinfectant side and that's exactly what byotrol do
Tristel's profit warning this morning just shows how much their market is dependent on Covid.
They also say they expect the impact to continue.
Tstl states there is little sign of the slowing trend reversing by their year end, June, which is Byot's Q1 end.
"Infection prevention and contamination control company Tristel updated the market on its trading on Monday, reporting that second half sales in all markets started “very slowly” due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on patient examinations."
... that trend had continued through its third quarter ended 31 March, and showed “little sign” of reversing in a meaningful way before year-end."
" it did not yet know what the pattern of Covid-19 transmission would look like over the next 12 months, adding that it was “clear that the impact of the last year will be felt throughout 2021-2022” and beyond."
https://www.sharecast.com/news/aim-bulletin/tristel-commits-to-final-dividend-despite-serious-uk-challenges--7890084.html
This follows on from Byot's TU which showed H2 was significantly lower than H1.
Sales/adj ebitda H2 v H1
Sales: H2 £4.3m (H1 £6.7m)
Adj Ebitda H2 £0.5m (H1 £1.2m)
cash £1.7m (H1 £1.7m)
https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/2021-04-21-TU-approved-pdf.pdf
If you want a feel for what just some of the IP might be worth, I suggest you read the latest finnCap note and see what they say in the "Valuation" section about the value of the potential royalty (or commission) stream from Solvay Actizone. This stream is part of the deal under which byotrol sold the relevant IP to Solvay.
Biffa,
"why we are at 6/7p and not mid teens is beyond me.
The IP has to be worth the MCap on it's own."
Why must the IP alone be worth the mcap?
During the biggest pandemic to hit the world, Income from IP/Royalty for fy2021 increased by £120k compared to fy2020, pre-pandemic.
£0.90m(fy2020 £0.78m)
current mcap £31m.
"We also recognised revenue and gross profit from IP agreements of £0.78m, lower than the prior year (which benefited from one large IP agreement with Solvay SA)."
https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/FY-2020-web.pdf
Now, fy2021:
"Revenue for the year will include a contribution of over £0.9m from licensing and intellectual property transactions, including multi-year agreements with material guaranteed minimum sales and/or annual royalty payments"
https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/FY-2020-web.pdf
Has to be one of the best interviews i've seen for quite a while.
Quite why we are at 6/7p and not mid teens is beyond me.
The IP has to be worth the MCap on it's own.
PS. Stt, p*ss off you sad ******.
1gw
"In terms of near-term business progression, the really positive thing for me is the guidance to year-on-year growth in earnings, backing up the idea that coronavirus has just accelerated what was already underway."
The fact is sales slowed significantly in H2 compared to H1. That's not made up, it's in the accounts.
We're in week 3 of the new year, so any forecast is pure speculation and pointless. If they suffered from the recent lockdown, why won't they suffer future lockdowns, especially as the scientists predict the next one could be in end of Summer/Autumn?
As time goes on, other companies have entered the market.
Sales slowed significantly in H2 compared to H1:
************************************************
Comparing H2 with H1.:
fy TU
revenues: £11m (H1 £6.7m)
dj Ebitda: £1.7m (H1 £1.2m)
cash: £1.7m (H1 £1.7m)
https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/2021-04-21-TU-approved-pdf.pdf
H1: https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Trading-Update-13.11.20.pdf
Sales/adj ebitda H2 v H1
Sales: H2 £4.3m (H1 £6.7m)
Adj Ebitda H2 £0.5m (H1 £1.2m)
cash £1.7m (H1 £1.7m)
In terms of near-term business progression, the really positive thing for me is the guidance to year-on-year growth in earnings, backing up the idea that coronavirus has just accelerated what was already underway, not provided an unsustainable one-year spike.
2 mins 10 secs:
"We've just put out analyst guidance via finnCap that we should beat this year's numbers in the year to 31st March 2021 [should be 2022]. Not a massive beat but a bit on the bottom line to deliver about £2m EBITDA and I would hope we would actually beat that as well when we get to the end of the year."
In terms of 2H slowdown in product sales, he did a good job of explaining why Boots online retail sales are not necessarily representative of the business as a whole.
4 mins 17 secs:
"First half of the year just gone was very, very good. Third quarter was good. Fourth quarter tailed off in terms of product sales because 3/4 of our business is to business environments, so professional products for use in professional environments. That's a consumables business and obviously when the professional environments are being closed down you're not selling a lot of consumables. So the 4th quarter wasn't so good but that's now opening up again."
[stt1 should perhaps listen to that last para rather than making it up]
CEO's are paid to be positive. Not many CEO's would do a 'Ratner'!! He was positive a year ago as well.
Being positive is one thing, the results are the judge of how well the company has done and the results show H2 sales slowed significantly compared to H1.
During times of mega demand of any product, other companies see the opportunity and enter the market, which is what seems to have happened here.
That is shown in the results:
H1, Apr-Sept, when everyone was buying anything available, sales were stronger. By H2 other companies had entered the market and sales are significantly lower.
I must say that was a good and encouraging interview
Correction:
For warrants, read options.
Far from being negative, I'm just making an observation.
Regarding warrants, until they're exercised they cost nothing.