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excellent points .. why does society push kids to under-technical largely useless degrees with massive debts instead on teaching a good trade that will earn a living anywhere ... Only pluses I can think of are that with just the divs alone I will get around 4.5%pa roi over the next 2 years (which is sustainable) and a good potential for at least the same in SP rise. And secondly, the smaller players are always in better shape to be flexible with workers. The Barrats of this market are a bit over-valued and need a decent throughput to maintain a workforce This is still a slow burn steady long term return stock. I don't do new years resolutions, but if I did I would wish for either a better CEO or at least a good PR person ... Happy NY all
Is low due to the low moral of staff, it's comman knowledge ,that site staff are leaving in droves. As usual the CEO won't understand why, and probably done surveys , and ignored them. Also the massive shortage of trades persons ,is only going to get worse. Young people don't want to know about construction, and they don't want hard graft ,the ones that do , mainly have no ambition , and when they've hit there weekly wage target , sometimes 3 days they go home, Then don't bother on Mondays. A lot of bovis staff have gone to mcs , and are makeing a right arse of it there as well.
Yep that's my read also cm45 & faramog. i.e. Management have been quite rubbish, but its end markets are still very strong (indeed even Bovis avg selling prices were up 10%, which is encouraging when it delivers the delayed sales next month). I think the management need to be changed and shareholder return prioritised properly - Compared to the great returns all other housebuilders have been achieving, Bovis does need to be keeping up with its competitions performance much better -- OR it should be bought out by them. (at only a PE of 8, a yield of around 6% and is valued around its book value --- it certainly would make a very good buyout for a proper housebuilder) IMHO ... Regards, Source.
very disappointing statement and leave much off. However, the shortfall of completed sales is stated as in play and pushed into next years H1 statement, so either there is some knowledge that Bovis is going to well under-perform completions or its just more disappointment with the CEO and CFO's way of telling the story. Underlying ROC should improve and there is nothing to suggest any form of divi threat ... so don't get the market negativity. OIn way worse figures a year ago this stock was trading a lot higher
....Has always been a weakness here. All the financials/stats lead to a higher sp so long as management is competent. And now it drops 4% because they say 'build production' is lower than expected in December. But no explanantion as to why. The CEO needs to grip this up fast and get production back on track pdq if he is to prove he should stay in his job.
You could not make it up. Tough on Triskaidekaphobic shareholders like me who could really do without this ...
How can a company issue such a good trading statement and essentially finish flat!?! What does Bovis have to do to regain lost value? Hopeless no wonder I'm poor even when I pick a good company I lose money hopeless
Seems to be a lot of day-trading on this one - 2 steps forward 1 step back.
seems so... but odd it was about the only builder down for the first hour or so...
I think the markets woke up now .. +4.4%...
Anyone know why has bovis dipped on great statement and RICS price increase above expectations?
super fundamentals on this share, happy with my holding back up to 900 plus before long imho gla
Rumours regarding Cala being bought out by a Chinese company.
why the rise (4.6%)
Share price perked up on Friday. Seems that Cala Group has been approached by a Chinese buyer. Guess that having bought up loads of houses they have decided to buy the company. Anyone any views on whether Bovis might be a target ? Bovis looks excellent value to me, especially if you are paying in dollars ...
Bovis is now cheaper than 3 years ago when its 2013 dividend totalled 13P ! That is smaller than the interim now paid! Financial year 2016 ought to deliver around 44p minimum yielding a forward 6% with uplifts in 2017.
I can see where some confusion comes "In the first half of 2016 the average sales price of homes legally completed increased by 14% to £254,500 (H1 2015: £222,300). The average sales price of private legal completions, excluding PRS, was 12% higher at £296,800 (H1 2015: £264,200), benefiting both from the mix effect from our ongoing strategy of predominantly investing in two storey product in prime southern biased locations and from market house price improvements. The average private sales price per square foot increased by 12% in H1 2016 compared to that achieved in H1 2015. We estimate the impact of market price increases in the year to 30 June 2016 to be around 4% to 5%." But its the fact that EPS is up 14%, Profit similar and ROCE up by 2.6 points that seems the most relevant. This is a cheap stock and with somewhat worse figures at the same time in Aug 15 was trading at circa 1150 .. seems all good for the next 2/3 years to me
Fully agree with your thoughts Buckslad, certain parties in the media seem determined to talk the country into a recession. The proposed government guarantee to buy any unsold stock from builders seems a bit bizarre to me - are there any unsold new builds in the country or am i looking in the wrong part of the country? Indecently, I think you will find Bovis average selling price rose 14% to £254,500 and not £270,000?
Great article - I agree with everything you say. But you post this on bvs board. Bovis have consistently under performed all the other builders for the last 5 years so their value will look better than their competitors. Besides that, I avoid the builders based around London because this is where I think the building cycle (boom to bust) will first be seen. So I watch them but them but do not hold shares in the coy. I wish you the very best of luck, and suggest you have a look at psn, tw, bdev, bwy and rdw. Btw bwy Finals Results due on 18th.
very well put ... and exactly the point .....
The Brexit hype continues to depress solid stocks such as Bovis. Today's small rally is the latest addition to the ongoing saga of doubt and gloom cast by those trying to justify earlier predictions of disaster to befall us all, especially on the housing market When it ought to be so obvious to all that demand for housing will continue to rise almost exponentially as the influx of immigrants all seeking homes accelerates and will continue to do so for at least 3 years. Indigenous population growth continues, and in a significant section is also increasing.Yet we still have might ifs and maybes reported from the RICS and other agents, as if it were fact not mere supposition, and poor at best. They are now gradually altering their tune and actually referring to the supply side , and bleating that not enough housing is coming onto the market, and that's why prices are staying high, and increasing. Apart from some Central London postcodes where over supply was well documented prior to Brexit, causing price weakening, the situation in the UK is that house prices will continue to climb until there is a balance in the market. Mortgages are at an all time low and will continue to be so for at least 3 years. Sterling exchange rates will, if anything cause even more investment from overseas buyers. Buy to let taxation is now absorbed into the equation although it caused the blip in this part of the cycle, which any 6th former could have predicted but alluded the "experts" Irrespective of HM Gov's £ 5Bn interference by suggesting they can help small builders return to construction, they will find it difficult to compete for labour and resource, and capital and land is not the primary cause of the current rate of house completions.The larger and medium size builders are building more houses and getting a greater return on capital. Bovis in particular are well placed and are not only building more, but are simultaneously achieving a massive uplift in sales value as they move their product more upmarket, averaging £270K as against £220K a year earlier. This will appear on the bottom line very quickly, and yet the merchants of doom have cast such misery that Bovis shares are completely undervalued, and CEO's have no alternative but to tell their shareholders there are market uncertainties over Brexit as an accurate reflection of the shock to the confidence that the daily drip feed of supposition and negative concepts continue unabated to create the outcome. Currently Bovis is in a very strong position, and ought to be commanding a premium rather than languishing at a price that hardly meets the value of the land it now owns and certainly not the large profits going forward.For those able to wait for 2 or 3 years the gains should be substantial and even those looking to 2017 dividends should not be disappointed. BUY
You need to ask yourself are these 8 or 9 [ositive factors outweighed by sentiement or a UBS analyst's suppositions.Sorry re the typos keyboard worn
Insane note from UBS knocking Bovis. Do they actually believe that a) imimigration to the UK os going to slow raather tahn actually accelrrate in the run up to any deal we do in the next 2 and a half years. b) that weak sterling is going to deter foreign investment in UK property.c) that any housebuilder is going to remotely keep up with demand d) That the 290 plus fixed mortgage deals at histortcally low rates are goimg to be removed from the market when the suppliers are competing to sell them, or that the astounding variabe rates will soimehow also disappear? e) That interest rates are going anywhere but down in the Uk for the next 2 years? f) that new buid prices are not STILL increasing g) that Bovis particuar portfolio is actually for slightly more expensive homes than previously and that they are actually building and selling more of them and will continue to do so h) That their shares are worth less than 2 years ago when they were turning over vastly less and generating far less profit and dividends. The fundamentals are ttoally against sucg crazy analysis. The shares are an absolute steal at up to £10.50, and the dividend will increase significantly over th next 2 years.Their return on cap and other fundamentals are better than when one Jim Slater recommenned buying at up to £12..00. The sahres are now cheaper than the land they own
So far today that has been a nice gain.... Revise my opinion from hold to weak buy.
I'm not back in profit yet but not far off, happy to hold though as the divi is good and I think there is a lot more growth to come. Fundamentals are still strong and there is healthy demand in their market