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There is the Albian-Aptian play risk scoring aswell as P#1 post drill result, and this gets a yellow for migration rather than a red as for P#1.
So further evaluation needed - not discounting these target levels as holding oil? it is either glass half empty or half full on how you perceive this, but at the least oil being in this rock strata isnt discounted by BPC going forward.
"Additionally, data derived from Perseverance #1 provides a modern-day well tie to recalibrate existing 3D mapping of the Aptian intervals untested in closures and structures elsewhere in the licence areas."
https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/03/25213812/bpc-update-presentation-march-21.pdf
You can take a conservative view that a green value in table post drill risk assessment slide 28 isnt 100% as Bohemia outlines, fair enough.
But then pre drill they assigned 100% to Trap for example and that is not a different green than the others or differentiated from 100% - we dont yet know what a green means in % terms for post drill (BPC - please confirm revised CoS % next drill) but its very positive overall and hence according to BPC, the CoS of next drill has gone up.
Lets assume green = 90% for arguments sake for all other aspects and migration is still 30% chance next drill
so 1 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x average of source at .0.9 and migration at 0.3 = 0.6
Revised CoS is now in range of 49%
Then to 65% assuming green is actually 100%.
there we go again. Our Ross always pops up with an agenda....usually it is to promote TRIN...bit boring and predictable
Tiburn I'm not into the whole confrontational thing. I don't like to carry disagreements over into following conversations or hold grugdes or try to one up anyone because of a previous heated discussion.
I like to think I have a sense of humour and can banter without getting personal.
It does feel like you have a score to settle with me though & because we have differing opinions that means you see me as an enemy.
I don't see you like that. I understand you like to win arguments and prove people wrong but don't hold that against you.
Can we just debate our points in a peaceful way?
Well I have sold half my stock today, so now is the chance for that game changing news to be released. Big loss but I knew the risks of the P1 gamble. I really hope for some positive news on Monday about finances but not holding my breath as history is not quite sitting right and lack of activity by the company and still some 7 figure sells going through this week. It will be 4 weeks from due Spud as well. Really need contract information very quickly.
Ross - I find your posts very fair, even balanced and you write a lot of sense. You are not a deramper but say it as it is. If you dont have any investment here there is nothing to stop you writing fair and balanced posts. I would rather have that than the continual ramping drivel from a lot of posters on the BB who are living in fairy fairy land. I am down 78% probably with tens of thousand of other mugs who believed in the constant bull**** coming from the lips of Simon Potter. All in my own opinion. GG
thanks Tiburn and I have given you a mark up. I now realise oil exploration is a bit different to mending clocks.
Fatal proving 80% is massive in exploration, it’s about feeling your way , it’s never just one drill and done, this is why it’s all about interesting majors enough to pay for next drill which is substantially derisked after p#1 as bpc maintain
Fire
Svs if you don’t want me to fit back at you right down the same bearing, then don’t write gratuitous sarcastic posts, provide a reasoned alternative view.
SvS
Good one!
How chivalross
deltalo
I’m here for the ramper stamping.
ros, then why are you here then? move on back to trin and leave investors to do their own thing.
come back in a month's time and see where the sp is then.
SvS
Now I’m blushing!
I think its cute that you are worried about other people's money and feel obliged to offer investment advice. This is probably not the best place for it though.
SvS
It’s your money. But comparators are necessary and healthy. There’s a kind of Stockholm Syndrome that goes with companies like BPC that is distinctly unhealthy. Too many folk on here still have too many of their eggs in this basket case.
Ok.
I am happy to make my own investment decisions. Are you ok me doing that?
SvS
I would question that assumption. Every field is different. I was happy to double up on TRIN the other day at 13.1p - I now have 200,000 shares there and don’t have to assume a lot to see an opportunity for a decent return on my capital while I wait for BPC to get its financial house in order and its drilling ducks in a row. Compare the MCAPs, current production and actual (not available) cash balances of BPC and TRIN and you might start to ask yourself why you’re hanging around here right now. My concern with BPC is that in the short term there could be some kitchen sinking and possibly a raise. I have no such concerns with TRIN.
Ross I accept you are a skeptic and are waiting for actual flow rates.
T&T is already producing oil along the southern coast line. I have no reason to question whether the larger oil discovery in the SWP find will not flow at similar if not higher rates than existing Wells albeit a different location.
SvS
Really. We still know very little about Saffron. Check the old RNSs - further data was promised but it never materialised. For all we know it could be another Goudron with killer declines after misleading initial spurts. Remember that there wasn’t a lot of doubt about oil being there, but not much more than that has been established. It is all to play for with S2. On previous form you have to wonder if S2 will even spud this quarter, despite the official line being “[drilling] expected to commence in mid-May 2021”. These guys always seem to be short at least one permit.
And then there’s the funding. There should be enough for S2 via existing arrangements (even if it turns out that, after P1 is finally squared away, there is less cash than the local rampers think), but we need clarity. With tomorrow’s reconciliation more info. should be forthcoming, possibly as soon as tomorrow or on Monday, but whether that will put P1 entirely to bed remains to be seen.
Nice to read some well thought out posts from Tiburn and Starchild. I only have one tiny query.
Tiburn states P1 met 80% of its targets. Isn't that a bit like a horologist saying to a customer
"I've corrected all the faults in this clock except one - it won't go" ?
Tiburn, must one twist the knife every time?
I'd rather stay away from needing to prove someone right or wrong & just wait for the news & results to answer any questions one has.
Ross really? Even though I agree that you are technically correct with the flow rates of the S1 well, albeit the couple of zones they did get to flow test. Saffron has been classed as a discovery with a possible 200m barrels recoverable.
It is of course completey possible that BPC may not get the S2 to flow at expected rates but the discovery has been made.
S2 results will determine how many Wells will be drilled.
Countedm have you been cleared to post here?
How many shares do you hold? How many times have you traded the stock? Do you represent any special interest groups and what size shoes do you wear?