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To follow up on your calculations wrt to the 18650 batteries - these are 3.65 Volts so contain 262.8MJ of electrical energy.
That article suggests that the amount of thermal energy that could be generated in a conflagration could be 10 times higher - this is truly terrifying, especially when you realise that we're not simply talking about something burning, where you can stop the fire by simply excluding the oxygen.
dubmaskullanga - you have made a very good point - the electrical energy stored in those Lithium-ion batteries is only a low-side estimate of the total energy that could be released in the event of a conflagration. Worse still it is not just heat and light that would be generated, which albeit bad, is a walk in the park compared with the danger caused by organophosphate nerve agents( https://www.livescience.com/58593-facts-about-sarin.html ) or HF gas. It is no overstatement to say that a large lithium-ion battery fire in the centre of a densely populated city could kill thousands.
That is why I reiterated point 3 earlier on - the Dalian 800MWh VRFB is located right in the middle of a city of 8 million people. That would be unthinkable with Lithium-ion.
Alfa, not crunched the numbers properly, but I suspect the energy density of a Li ion battery in calorimety terms may be higher than the electrical energy density!!
Nice long report here: https://web.archive.org/web/20130513081920/http://www.nfpa.org/assets/files//PDF/Research/RFLithiumIonBatteriesHazard.pdf
Page 88 on.
Snippet: "Thus, a pallet of ten thousand 2 Ah 18650 cells (approximately 20,000 Ah of capacity) would contain approximately 2-3 GJ of energy that could be released by the cells alone. Packaging materials would increase the total energy available for release." (18650 cells are AA sized)
My point being to spread the load on grid storage between numerous technologies and one specifically that can last 3 times as long and be re-usable is a good start.
Will the supply of lithium cater for all of the car batteries, personal devices, grid storage demands that are going to get bigger and bigger? And the batteries will need renewing every 7 or so years across all of those devices.
As time goes on the amount of lithium required will be incredible just to keep standing still let alone expanding usage with more cars, more devices and more grid storage.
Halespur there is nothing rampy or derampy about plain hard facts
1. 2,750 Tonnes of Ammonium Nitrate produces 3,850,000 Megajoules of energy when it explodes
2. 800MWh of electrical energy is equivalent to 2,880,000 Megajoules of energy
3. The Dalian 800MWh VRFB flow battery is located in the middle of Dalian City.
Alfa you read my mind but tried not to spell it out in case people think I am being rampy to side with VRFB's and mention Beirut.
Even though people will say there has only been a small number of Li Ion grid fires. We don't want that I told you so moment where many people are killed or injured by that one big story on the news.
Especially now it is closer to home and avoidable with a non-flammable solution even if this isn't VRFBs.
I know the trolls and pro-lithium supporters will say whatever to protect their investment but this is beyond that when we start looking beyond ourselves and the future decades.
we need some kind of flag for jokes - how about the 'strong sell' one ?
Was joking and got your point
knutsford - that's the right conclusion but saying that it contains 0 Megajoules of stored energy is perhaps not giving the right message
Alfa.
I assume VRFB= 0 Megajoules, given that even with matches one could not light a battery up?!!
Gambti - it's not just the sarin-like organophospates that are created in Lithium-ion battery fires it is also the Hydrogen Fluoride which is potentially more harmful as it will eat through most protective equipment.
If that is not an alarm bell calling I don’t no what is ?!!! It was said the Beirut explosion had more power than two small nuclear bombs going off 2700 tonnes of ammonia nitrate, imagine that same quantities used for lithium battery storage truely horrific plus all the sarin like gases given off, governments signing these projects off are walking into Armageddon!!
bassguy - you're missing my point - I'm pointing out that many Lithium-ion batteries have energy densities that are a significant (over 50%) of that of the ammonium nitrate that blew up in Lebanon, destroying much of the city and killing hundreds.
Can we make ammonium nitrate Vanadium batteries??
;)
Halespur - out of curiosity I just had a look at the relative energy density of Ammonium-Nitrate and Lithium-ion battery
Lithium Ion Battery = 0.36 - 0.875 Megajoules per Kg ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery )
Ammonium Nitrate = 1.4 Megajoules per Kg ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density_Extended_Reference_Table )
NOW will people take the safety risks of large scale Lithium-ion installations seriously ?
Long duration storage and recyclability is the key for VRFB's and then add leasing and the numbers will work out cheaper than a lithium ion battery for grid storage. Lithium has its place in cars and devices for me.
Safety will be a big consideration as batteries get larger. You can see the devastation that can be caused by large fires and explosions and governments will be wary of this.
It may do more than that knutsford it may actually CREATE a new South African business, not just making electrolyte, but also assembling the batteries themselves in SA.
This is precisely the catalytic impact that governments the world over dream about.
Furthermore a BMN tender supports South African businesses. A Tesla L-ion does not
Absolutley Alfa but for me I think the key factor is also that doing things 3 times when they can be done once properly is not green at all. 3 lots of mining and recycling (if poss!?). These are energy and resource intensive operations. Isn't the whole point of decarbonisation and greening of the planet, that we are trying to get away from waste??
Vauxhall Viva - the key factor is that an 80 MW Li-ion battery probably can only store 80MWh of energy - thus if you want 320MWh of energy storage you need a battery which is 4 times the size and cost.
So multiply the £40m li-ion by 3 gives the vrfb alternative quite alot of wiggle room in the same 30yr life. Oh and 3 lots of recycling and decommission costs too..
Plus while i think about it you wont actually get 80MW from a li-ion - not only will it start to degrade immediately, it cant be fully discharged without failure.
lor - the initial capex is only relevant if the different battery systems have exactly the same performance and life. If not then you need to look at the levelised cost of storage - and this depends on the reimbursement mechanisms that exist in a the particular place that you want to site the battery. If you want to understand more about the Eskom BESS tender then you need to read the excellent series of articles from BBN here:-
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/bushveld-energy-your-time-is-coming-336
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/bushveld-energy-eskom-battery-mandate-2018-339
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/bushveld-energy-your-time-has-now-arrived-355
Ask yourself why has the Eskom BESS tender been delayed for so long and why it suddenly appears immediately after the BMN/Enerox deal is finalised. Only Sumitomo has a longer track record in installing VRFB systems, Enerox has installed 140 systems all over the world and if memory serves me right has the largest installed base of VRFB batteries of any company.
*big enough
Alfa just FYI an 80 MW lithium ion battery storage system would cost £40 million to build in the UK. Can Bushveld compete with this? Is the tender fit enough for a Tesla or BYD or Samsung just to come in and sweep away the Bushveld? How is the tender being judged and what is the criteria for winning? Do you need a significant track record of deployment for example?