Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Just to expand on my earlier response, I should add, that it is not unheard of to go short on a stock that you are ultimately long on. I’ve done it myself, where I have had a fairly large long position, the stock price goes up significantly and I decide that it's likely to retrace, so instead of selling some of the long position, I may take out a smaller CFD short and look to close the short when I think the retrace is done. That way, I’ve taken advantage of the retrace and can then add to the long position with some or all of the profit. The short may not always work in my favour but as long as I close a losing short at my determined stop loss, it’s a minimized loss and my long position will have compensated for the loss anyway.
Hedge funds normally short stock to protect other assets but there are strategies where they can heavily short a stock they intend to go long on, usually in conjunction with others doing the same, and once the price reaches the desired low, they may attempt to build a significant long position while keeping the short open and once they have reached the desired long position size they then close their shorts positions.
There is a link above that provides you with access to the full shorting history on this stock for all short positions greater than 0.5% of the issued share capital. This appears to suggest that JP Morgan has never taken a short position unless it was below the 0.5% threshold. Hopefully, this answers your question.
In the not so distant past….Why would JP Morgan have a price target two times todays level but were also shorting the company at the same time?
** Jefferies says the semiconductor sector has entered a new
upcycle and expects it to result in material re-rating and
strong EPS growth over the next two years
** "We expect semiconductor growth rates to accelerate
through H2-23 following the ending of the inventory correction
in many segments like PCs, smartphones and servers," it says
** The broker expects global semiconductor revenue growth to
move into positive territory by early 2024, and to further
accelerate to H1 2025 cycle peak
** It predicts growth to positively surprise through
2024-2025 on the back of structural drivers including AI, cloud,
edge, IoT, EVs, ADAS, renewable energy and VR/AR
** "We forecast the industry to expand to $1trn over the
next 8-9 years," Jefferies says, and forecasts EPS of the stocks
it covers to grow between 35% and 180% in 2023-2025
** Jefferies raises STMicroelectronics STMPA.PA , Infineon
IFXGn.DE and Melexis MLXS.BR to "hold" from "underperform"
** Its top picks are ASML ASML.AS , ASM International
ASMI.AS , Aixtron AIXGn.DE , Soitec SOIT.PA and Alphawave
AWE.L (all "buy"), as it sees 48%-101% upside to their stock
prices over 12 months
All starting to look positive here in the coming years IMO. Wish I had been able to top up more sub 100p but managed a few purchases to bring my average down, trouble is there has just been too many undervalued shares in the last year, you can only load up on so many. GL all
Alphawave Semi announced two new tapeouts on Monday on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co's (TSMC) most advanced 3nm process of its High Bandwidth Memory 3 (HBM3) PHY and Universal Chiplet Interconnect Express™ (UCIe™) PHY IPs, paving the way for a new generation of chiplet-enabled silicon platforms, tailored for hyperscaler and data infrastructure customers. Notably, Alphawave Semi is the first company to announce UCIe PHY IP supporting faster die-to-die data rates of 24Gbps per lane, delivering an impressive bandwidth of 7.9 Terabits per second over a tight space of a mm of a chip beachfront.
3nm process technology is vital for creating advanced chips that can effectively handle the exponential surge in data generated by AI, with demands for more compute, memory bandwidth, I/O speeds, and energy efficiency. Alphawave Semi’s 3nm chiplet-enabled custom silicon platform is built on flexible and customizable connectivity IP. Customers benefit from Alphawave Semi’s application optimized IP subsystems and experience with the TSMC 3DFabricTM ecosystem to integrate advanced interfaces such as CXLTM, UCIeTM, HBMx, and Ethernet on to custom chips and chiplets.
More details on AWE's website:
https://awavesemi.com/press-release/alphawave-semi-spearheads-chiplet-based-custom-silicon-for-generative-ai-and-data-center-workloads-with-successful-3nm-tapeouts-of-hbm3-and-ucie-ip/
Praveen Vaidyanathan, Vice President and General Manager of Micron’s Compute Products Group said, “Generative AI is pushing the performance requirements in data centers, fueling the demand for advanced memory solutions like HBM3 to provide very high bandwidth with improved energy efficiency. The tape-out of Alphawave Semi’s HBM3 solution in TSMC’s most advanced 3nm process is an exciting new milestone. It allows cloud service providers to leverage Alphawave Semi’s HBM3 IP subsystems and custom silicon capabilities to accelerate AI workloads in next-generation data center infrastructure.”
Dr. Debendra Das Sharma, Chairman, UCIe Consortium said, “We’re excited to see Alphawave Semi tape out a 24Gbps/lane UCIe IP in a 3nm process. This milestone demonstrates how UCIe can help fuel innovation through leading edge chiplet connectivity, and we welcome Alphawave Semi’s commitment to delivering IPs that support the development of an open chiplet ecosystem.”
“With our vertically integrated semiconductor focus, we’re excited to deliver a comprehensive 3nm chiplet connectivity platform for hyperscaler and data-infrastructure customers to keep pace with the surge in data-intensive applications like generative AI”, said Tony Pialis, CEO and co-founder of Alphawave Semi. “Our latest 3nm tapeouts are a testament to Alphawave Semi’s dedication to technology leadership in connectivity and our collaborative efforts in fostering an open chiplet ecosystem.”
Good point @BarkingYap was better asleep in his kennel
🤫
Dear frogoffrance, now see what your comment did! Told you ! LOL. Good luck to us all.....except shorters of course. X
The captain and crew of this Titanic have calmed the passengers that there's no problems and the passengers are partying on caviar and Champagne.
Icebergs westwards!
Cheers
Barcap
Does anyone know how to stop the annoying "what's hot" videos forever popping up on these pages? Thanks in advance
Shhhh, don't jinx this rise , lol. ;-)
Not heard from the shorters lately
Interesting info, thanks.
The company press release on Wednesday might explain the slight surge in buys that day...
https://awavesemi.com/press-release/alphawave-semi-expands-collaboration-with-samsung-adds-3nm-connectivity-ip-to-meet-accelerated-ai-and-data-center-demand/
Intraday volatility is something that one might have to get used to with this kind of stock but it hasn’t quite had the meteoric volatility of its near identical twin on NASDAQ. Credo was sitting pretty at $19 back in February when overnight it dropped to less than $10 and with a few minor ups and downs gradually declined to $7.50 in early May, it then made a sharp but steady rise to $13.50 by late May to take a mini breather before its latest ascent to $18 as of last night. That’s essentially a 150% return from its low point in the space of a month and a bit.
As I mentioned before, its price has now slightly exceeded the analysts current target consensus ($16) but still has a discounted cash flow model fair valuation of $28.22 however.
A couple of interesting observations I can make regarding Alphawave is firstly that the trading volumes haven’t been particularly significant in the last three weeks where the price has risen from an intraday low of £0.96 to £1.38. There was one day back on 30th May when the daily volume nearly approached 7 million but every day since it has rarely exceeded a million. Secondly, there’s Kuvari Partners hedge fund that still as far as we know has a short exposure of approximately 6.3 million shares, a good chunk of which was shorted at prices well above today’s price although they also placed a recent short of approximately 400,000 shares at around £1.16 on 22 May (last trading before the suspension).
Whatever Kuvari’s trading strategy here is, they have at some point to close these shorts to take the profit and 6 million is quite a lot which could easily add significant pressure to the buy side if closed too quickly. I am wondering if these are now being closed steadily at a trickle pace and may be part of the reason for the recent uptrend coupled with the AI mania of private investors. A trading update is likely due in about a month’s time and if the guidance on the revenue and bookings remains unchanged or to the upside then in my view there’s a significant risk for Kuvari in getting these shorts closed in time before a significant price increase erodes the profit on those shorts.
As if to underline your point, the share price today shot up to 138 and then back down to 129. There's a lot of volatility around.
Have to admit I'm surprised by the price performance since the audit event. You just never know which way the verdict will go - this time the potential in the company and the sector has won out. Painful for any shorters out there.
Too early to call this but is there a sniff of the market overall looking beyond the current stagnant growth, interest rates etc ? It always moves ahead of good news appearing on the ground.
Thank you for the information. I’m invested here. 40% down at the moment. It may be time to start loading up.
AWE is somewhat isolated on the LSE as the only semiconductor player of midcap size and above. Its peers are mostly on NASDAQ where the AI fever is in full swing - the likes of Marvell, Broadcom, Rambus etc., are all rated as considerably overpriced when using DCF models and their analysts are only giving target prices in line with where they are already at. On the Taiwanese exchange its peers are also overpriced on DCF.
Credo, also on NASDAQ are very similar to AWE in many respects but by comparison they are generating marginally less revenue with more than twice the market capital, while their price already slightly exceeds the analysts targets. The DCF model however indicates it is nearly 40% undervalued.
Analysts target price for AWE is nearly double its current price and DCF modelling currently yields a fair value £2.20. If they continue to hit or exceed their revenue expectations and continue to sustain or even improve on their EBITDA margin then a price correction will be an inevitability even it doesn't come before then.
In theory AWE should be a good pick & shovel play for the gold rush that is the data / intelligence explosion.
So far it has not benefited. I see Nvidia has reached the $Trillion market cap threshold.
Morning Barcap.
"I tend to invest in people (Directors) as much as I in do business models and I believe my short is in good hands with the quality of directors in AWE."
Investing in 'people' is a wise approach to good investing. So would you care to expand on what attributes you think the directors of Alphawave have that leads you to the conclusion they will destroy any value this company has?
Ollycoto21
Thanks for your advice but I'm happy to hold my short and not "double down" unlike many of the traders on here would do ( Or should they be called "gamblers").
I know there are some on here who are genuine long term bulls and I respect them for that.
I tend to invest in people (Directors) as much as I in do business models and I believe my short is in good hands with the quality of directors in AWE.
Only time will tell but I expect the directors to destroy any value this company has over the long term.
Cheers
Barcap
Nicely worded blue 🧐
"All the acquisitions, many of which are bad and non profitable." ... Gosh, how many acquisitions do you think they 've done? How would you know they are bad and unprofitable?
"One of the acquisitions was heavily China centric now blocked from trading in China (that was good timing)."
Please don't make stuff up.
"Revenue is vanity and the products and area AWE are into is not state of the art also."
So, the industry first, 112G Ethernet and PCIe 6.0 SerDes IP on TSMC's 3nm process node isn't state of the art?
Which company has TSMC, the largest silicon foundry in the world, announced as this year's winner of the OIP (Open Innovation Platform) Partner of the year for high speed SerDes IP for the third consecutive year? It wouldn't happen to be Alphawave Semi would it? Oh but would you have it, so it is! How come that is so? It wouldn't be due to the fact they are leaders in state-of-the-art SerDes connectivity would it? Yes sir that would be the reason!
As for revenue, this is up 100% on last year, with a significant contribution coming from one of their three acquisitions, which you apparently call bad and unprofitable. First quarter 2023 bookings reported in excess of $100 million. Not bad for a company with 'many' bad and non profitable acquisitions huh?
All the best and good luck.