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Is it possible to see how much stock the seller has to get rid of?
Just to complete the cycle of my mini obsession today. It has been 17p to buy all day. So the 650k trade looks very much like a buy, and I can currently still buy 500k at 16.9999p, which is 0.5p lower than this morning, even though the vast majority of today's 1.85m were buys.
So like I say there is a large seller soaking up the vasy majority of buys. When they are finished, which may just coincide with news, then I expect a good push north.
Incidentally, I can now purchase 100k at exactly 17p and upto 500k at 17.44p So the ask is dropping on a sea of buys. I expect a big sell to appear later to cover all these buys today.
Posted purely for interest.
Since I wrote that 8.48am post there have been 400k in buys and just 23.4k in sells. I know because I have constantly been setting up 100k buys and the buy price hasn't moved out of the 17.02-06 range. So the 17.18p ask is nonsense. Only the AT trades are following it
Yet the offer to buy that same 300k has gone up by just 0.05p and the 400k is exactly as i printed earlier. There may be over 1.2 billion shares in issue but that doesn't matter. The buys are being soaked up by someone or something.
@jointhedots Firstly with all due respect I am not worried in the slightest about the SP and do not need to be comforted in any way. Secondly, I did not say that the MMs are desperate for shares, so please do not insinuate that I did.
I trust you will take that in the gentle manner it is intended and trust that I enjoy the debate.
I don't normally get involved in daily SP movement discussions, it is not my focus nor my primary concern. I am a fundamentals based medium to long term investor and I am very confident about my position in AMER. However, clearly I also like to achieve the best entry point I can.
I am aware of how many shares are in issue but it is irrelevant. This is about liquidity.
My main point was merely designed to inform those investors that perhaps only follow the LSE market figures that the numbers are severely skewed, and that the vast majority of trades are buys at around 17p. I myself have bought over 500k of shares last week and I paid less for the last 100k than I did for the first. All of those trades were within a smidging of 17p and were surrounded by similar priced trades. What they in turn did is skew any AT trades, which seem to be operating in a completely different market right now price wise.
In my humble and not so inexperienced opinion, the SP is holding at this level because there is a suitcase full of shares available to sell and the seller is happy at around 17p, be they MMs, RH or whoever. It is not because the market is balanced by general wider sentiment.
It is of course by the by, because news flow here is so strong it doesn't really matter. I just like the problem solving element of these things sometimes.
What i will say is that in my opinion there is a seller and when they are done the SP will move a lot more freely with or without news flow. In the meantime, I am confident that buying at 17p is a solid decision because as I say the buys are outweighing the sells by some distance, so it is highly likely the bottom in this phase of the story and will not last forever.
Re 400,000 shares: it just means delayed trades of up to 3 days i.e. they traded today and that impacted the SP but you won't see the trade come through for a while.
BigBiteNow - I'm not sure you have thought your statement through, if 400,000 pushes the offer price to 17.48p that suggest upward pressure to me.
This is a £200m ish market cap company with over a billion shares so that's around 0.033% of the company hardly an inexhaustible supply.
At any time in the past there where always millions of shares available, and I reckon there still is, the idea that MM's are ever desperate for stock is very misleading - they simply increase reduce prices to correct any situation, the exception is where something extra-ordinary occurs then they can temporarily be caught out - but then all they do is change stance or open the spread to kill off any trading.
Don't worry about the SP it will improve dramatically if the company delivers have of what is promised this year.
@Willec I have no idea and having just checked the real bid is indeed 16.86, which again demonstrates what i have been communicating that the vast amount of trades are buys going through at the read ask and not the disfunctional version that can be seen on a daily basis here.
BigBite Now, why then is the Bid as low as 16.86p and not closer to 17p
Plus 50k is currently available at 17.02p, which is the price I was paying for most of last week. So the bid and ask are all over the place and anything at 17.0p or there abouts is a buy, of which there are a fair few.
For the record i don't normally get involved in the daily price movements, I simply wanted to demonstrate why i thought there was a seller and thus an overhang of shares to be cleared.
Just as an example I can currently buy 300,000 at 17.14p, then 400,000 at 17.48p.
Somebody is offloading because there are plenty of shares around.
Good morning all.
Yes in the Proactive interview John Wardle says this about the latest 6 well programme ;
"We expect strong production growth and reserves growth from those wells"
It is clear that the confidence levels are very high. A CEO saying the word 'expect' rather than 'hope' is in my view significant.
It also says a lot about what they think regarding the truw level of the OWC in the Indico structure.
The market hasn't even begun to appreciate this but when the current background selling is over, and that is what it clearly is because I have been buying fairly heavily and the buy price is nearly always the same, then it a re-rate will take hold.
Clear the overhang and with Brent over $66 and rising, the SP will begin to demonstrate more appreciation soon enough. Its looking like being a very exciting year ahead for AMER, so I cannot see this BB remaining so quiet as the reality starts to kick in.
You don’t find a 300ft oil column in isolation. It has to be part of a bigger trapping system,” says John Wardle, chief executive. Geological analysis of Indico-1 has classified at least 18mln barrels in the 1P category, he adds, the most certain category there is. If the oil/water contact point turns out to be, say 40ft lower than 283ft, those reserves will go up to 33mln barrels, but deeper than that can rise to 70mln or even 100mln barrels. The drill rig has now moved onto a third well, Calao-1, which will test the geology to the south-west of Indico, to be followed by Pavo Real-1 to the North East. In all, six wells are planned on CPO-5 this, year including two appraisals.