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An analyst guesses what the interest rate for the bond will be.
"... according to our estimates, the profitability of debut the issuer's bonds should be in the range of 10-11%. .."
Also shows graph of recent bond issues with yields ranging from 8.33 to 12.97%
link in russian
https://rusbonds.ru/rb-docs/analytics/A27.09.2021-Otkr.pdf
--
The Moscow Exchange MOEX has registered the issue of non-convertible bonds for AltynGold of BO-01 series. The securities are included in the third level of the quotation list. The registration number of the issue is 4B02-01-00040-L.
link in russian
https://www.moex.com/n36338?utm_source=www.moex.com&utm_term=4b02-01-00040-l
Various russian sites mentioning the upcoming Altyn bond issue.
link in russian
https://rusbonds.ru/rb-docs/analytics/A27.09.2021-Otkr.pdf
"... according to our estimates, the profitability of debut the issuer's bonds should be in the range of 10-11%. .."
Shows graph of recent bond issues with yields ranging from 8.33 to 12.97%
HTTPS://www.moex.com/e17290
Presentation to Moscow Exchange 29 September
"2022 and 2023 forcecast is for 38000oz each year which is then stable quarterly production of 9500oz."
=====================================================
I suppose the 'big' question is how easy is it going to be to upgrade the current processing plant from 850ktpa by another 150ktpa whilst maintaining ore processing....there is bound to be some disruption. But hopefully they have a workable plan for achieving minimal disruption. 38,000 oz forescast for next 2 years would suggest they think the upgrade won't impact gold production significantly.
"the investor presentation released in mid September had a forecast of 30,000oz produced this year "
===================================================
Funnily enough I guesstimated in March 2020 that they would produce 30,000 oz of gold this year. But 'only' 13,000 oz first half means they have some catching up to hit the target....but new equipment and higher grade ore could get them there.
Puts the 'research' that forecast 26,000 oz (promoted by the company) into perspective....Altyn shooting itself in the foot (again!).
Winter is coming - when mining becomes harder - and it will be interesting to see how ALtyn cope in q4 especially.
"They have mined more than they milled over the last 18months so they must have a stockpile ..."
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I was thinking exactly the same thing this morning. Over 100,000 tonnes of ore is sitting somewhere doing nothing. It won't be the highest grade stuff....so if they are mining higher grade ore then they may not touch the stockpile unless they have extra processing capability. They need as much gold poured as possible given the relatively high gold price and also to attract potential investors. I wonder if there is a cost involved in having +100,000 tonnes laying about....contains about $5m of gold I calculated.
Bald_Eagle - the investor presentation released in mid September had a forecast of 30,000oz produced this year - given they produced about 13,000oz in the first half that means 17,000oz second half, so 8500oz per quarter. 2022 and 2023 forcecast is for 38000oz each year which is then stable quarterly production of 9500oz. So I think for Q3 I'm expecting at least 8000oz.
They have mined more than they milled over the last 18months so they must have a stockpile or ore and I wonder now if they start to work through some of that.
Last March (2020) I guesstimated H1 numbers at 282,000 tonnes mined and 13,700 oz. So not a million miles away. Q3 is unlikely to see a step change from the gradual progression in mined ore, grade and recovery rates.
q3 (2021) my numbers were 163,000 tonnes and 7,900 oz. So anywhere near those numbers would be 'good'. Not enough 'probably' to cause a stampede but rather show steady progress.
It would be 'sensible' to have a Q3 production update prior to a bond placing (assuming it is 'good' news)....but it's a little early perhaps and also Altyn don't always do 'sensible'!!
I expect the bond raise to be supported by new CPR, they have been drilling for over 2 years now.
Thanks
This is the money needed to increase the current plant to 1MMTPA and acheive production of 57,000oz per year in 2024. The recent presentation showed they need CAPEX of around $60million next year, so the amount proposed covers the shortfall from cashflow - if this can be raised its another big step and I think the SP will respond strongly.
It says its planned for listing in October, I'd expect strong Q3 production report in mid October.
Would that be money for the expansion of Sekisovkoye mine & upgrade of current processing plant to 1Mtpa?
I don't quite understand the sums of money required by the second processing plant - other than substantial - and it probably won't be clear how they will fund it until 1Mtpa is reached. I suppose in theory they could start fairly soon on design, survey and some ground works for the new plant which wouldn't cost too much (they have machinery from the open pit operation).
That would certainly be nice and together with operational cashflow would leave the company fully funded for the next stage of development so there would be no need for any substantial equity raise and 5 year bonds also mean there is no refinancing risk for sometime.
I'm not surprised, at 37,000oz per year as planned for next year that can comfortably support the debt.
Thanks Stonefold.
Unconfirmed news on proposed future financing (dependant on demand by investors, up to $ 41,100,000 USD at current exchange rate equal to 3 Billion Rubles. In 5 year bonds to be sold in Moscow in October 2021.)
"...MOSCOW, September 24 - RIA Novosti / Prime. AltynGold with assets in Kazakhstan plans to place its debut bond issue worth 3 billion rubles on the Moscow Exchange in October, a source in financial circles told RIA Novosti.
The issuer is AltynGold Finance. The company intends to place bonds for up to five years. The amount of the issue will be determined based on the results of marketing and bookbuilding. The organizers are Raiffeisenbank and Renaissance Capital.
Among the purposes of attracting funds - financing of the investment program for the development of deposits and gold mining. ..."
Link in russian
https://gold.1prime.ru/news/20210924/426181.html
"It is all a bit academic though - I think we’ll be delighted here when Altyn can fully utilize the existing 850ktpa plant that they have."
===============================================
Spike , of course you are correct. Ther most important thing is that they get Sekisovkoye working at 850Ktpa and upgraded to 1Mtpa.
But a third processing plant is a big investment and requires a huge management committment in time & resources. Blandly suggesting that additional facilities are in the 'plan' doesn't help investors understand the company (IMO). Altyn need to crawl before they even start walking...some are looking at record breaking marathon times!!
The company isn't helping with ambiguous communications.
Stonefold, thanks for the Altyn contact information. I shall ask the question that people seem wary to ask!!
The email seems a little odd, dated that is. The company is now Altyngold but the email is 'info@altyn.uk'. I shall give it a try anyway.
Spike, as you say academic in the scheme of things but they confirmed in the televised presentation last week Seki was planned to go to 2mtpa, and life of mine would be maintained by increase in reserves to be confirmed by new CPR following extensive drilling since 2019.
As I said before I tend to side with bald_eagle on this one that the company has current defined plans for two plants each of 1MTPA and the location of the second plant has been shifted from Sekisovkoye to Teren-Sai. Which isn’t to say longer term they can’t / won’t increase that to three plants with a second at Sekisovskoye but I don’t yet see that on the current roadmap despite what the previous CPR and previous results say.
It is all a bit academic though - I think we’ll be delighted here when Altyn can fully utilize the existing 850ktpa plant that they have.
bald_eagle,
The email address (with two gaps removed)
info @ altyn.uk
still works.
They will respond to an answerable question, but it can take a long time before you get a reply.
I have not asked them this, but my interpretation is that they aim to increase the processing plant at Seki to 1mt.
Then build a new 1mt plant at Seki.
Later to build new 1mt plant at TS.
"You can always get in touch with Gallagher or Basra for confirmation, I have direct contact with both."
============================================
DofM, why don't you ask Gallagher & Basra to clear things up once and for all?....and post their answer(s) on here. It would certainly end this misunderstanding and provide useful information to investors.
PS I don't have the contact details of either men....the website is bereft of email addresses (or other contact information useful to me).
From the latest presentation document (14 sep 2021):
Page 5 (Credit highlights).... "Reserves & resources JORC: 5.3Moz in reserves (2P)...reserves support 30+ years mine life at targetted 100Koz annual production"
page 10 (Sekisovkoye deposit overview)...."3.8Moz 2P gold reserves"
page 11 (Teren-sai deposit overview)...."1.45Moz 2P gold reserves"
Conclusion: When the company talks about mine reserves of 5.3Moz and annual production target of 100Koz per year it is talking about the combined output of Sekisovkoye AND Teren-sai.
PS: 100Koz per year is equivalent to TWO 1Mtpa processing plants....assuming grades of 2g/t and 80% recovery.
PPS: Do the math, see the light!
Its never going to drop in baldies head as he s got nought in there . Maybe he should have been called Bungalow !
Baldie why don t you join the board of directors as you talk a load of cobblers and learn to read properly ?
Its never going to drop in baldies head as he s got nought in there . Maybe he should have been called Bungalow !
From the presentation document (14 sep 2021):
"Longer term production goal - 2Mtpa" (pp5)