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@Nixalus #1localwickerman... see when you’re right about anything.... then I’ll worry about your opinion. Until that day, keep getting it wrong..
I had the same thought. I topped up this morning.
This may have seen its bottom. Large discount to Nav based on recent fund values. In a years’ time 34p will look cheap.
Thanks Spotthecat.
I'm still learning here so its good to know that ‘Spectrum Controller’ isn't the only source of revenue for Fed. The AWS and Azure tie in are great exposure to AI and cloud computing but again it would be great to have some idea on revenue.
The news item linked to by jaffa is the kind of announcements that will demonstrate the utility of shared spectrum. Some more news at of after the results would be good but I still don't expect too much.
I sold most of my position in ALM earlier this month so I have the cash to get back in at a better price. Even with today’s 7% rise, I think I’ll wait until after the results and probably after US elections.
When the FCC granted the initial commercial deployments last year (i think) Fed announced they already had 40 customers that they had already been in advance stages discussions speedy deployment. We are now much further down the road and the CBRS licences have been awarded, you can see from the announcement in Arlington yesterday and the tie up with AWS and Azure for NaS, the snow cone device starts to address some of the fundamental issues with AI and i fully expect a load more innovations to pop up in the coming months, it should be a interesting 6 months for Fed....
Just hope they can demonstrate a clear revenue line and not just give it away, long timers believers in this stock have taken a bath and the management of these business's need to build great tech/companies/IP but also deliver value for the people who invested in them.
@nuckyt Speak of nonsensical drivel!
It's very clear you have no idea what you're doing, & this is the source of your frustration.
Yes. some revenues, even a small amount, would be useful as it may provide an indication on margins and some ability to extrapolate to when the market becomes mature. At the moment we are flying blind.
I also agree that the results may surprise. I'm still trying to get a handle on FW and I can't claim to be aware of all revenue sources. For example, we know there is tie up with Amazon AWS but again I do not know when we could expect revenue from that.
I can only call it as I see it and I'm always happy for people to poke holes in my posts; I'm certainly not an expert. You've been in ALM a lot longer than me; I'm wondering what you meant by 'initial deployment to 40 customers'.
Why has the stock dropped a third? My heart says it’s the stock market God at work. Everything is up to him whoever he may be. I think I’ll
Keep what my head says to myself. I don’t want to upset the town of WickerMan that is some people on this forum. Don’t want to upset the locals. Not today anyway.....
Thanks for the thoughts Loot you make a lot of sense and agree that we aren't likely to see significant revenues from Fed for sometime, I am hoping that there are some initial revenues that can at least give us and the market the ability to price the company based upon a cost model. Google have already mentioned their cost model for its SAS (monthly fee per connected device), and I think that the initial commercial deployments of 40 customers for Fed must show something.
Fingers crossed for a nice surprise at some point.
Thanks again.
I'd be very surprised if we see significant revenues from Fed Wireless this year or even next. My understanding is that the spectrum licences are still being auctioned and allocated. I can make the analogy of expecting a train company to make revenue while the track is still being laid.
Even once the auctions are complete, it will still take time before the public start to use 5g in significant numbers. At the moment very few people own 5g enabled devices and the incentive to upgrade will depend on the industry launching 5g products and services which are attractive to the consumer.
It's a bit of a chicken and egg scenario. However, I'm not pessimistic because the industry has been here before with the adoption of 3g. There will always be 'early adopters' on both sides who will drive the market. But even these 'early adopters' will not be sufficient to create a market for FW. Feds ‘Spectrum Controller’ relies on a secondary market for bandwidth developing; and this will only happen once the network becomes busy enough so that bandwidth begins to have a scarcity value (not all the time but at certain peak times and locations).
So there are many hurdles that exist between now and when FW start to generate revenue and of course nothing is 100% certain. We assume 5g will be widely adopted and we assume there will be a secondary market for bandwidth but neither is as certain as death and taxes.
So, no; I don't expect revenue in the foreseeable future but that's not to say that the share price wont rise in anticipation of these things happening. I hope to see a rising share price at the end of the year as we will have C band and Ofcom auctions in December and January. As we head into 2021 and Covid is no longer hogging the headlines then I can see investors looking around for the next big investment theme and I hope that will be 5g. By the beginning of 2022 I'd expect the general public to be aware of 5g and the new services that it enables. Only then do I anticipate significant revenue.
So Covid has delayed things and stretched out what may have happened in 12 to 18 months into a 2 to 3 year time frame. I agree with people who say that the underlying investments and potential are still unchanged; however, that's not to say that the investment case is unchanged.
If I think back to why I invested initially, part of the reason (not all) was because the share price was greatly discounted to NAV. ALM was therefore a value stock. That is still true but since the recent stock market correction 'value stocks' are no longer that rare. A typical value investor may now be more attracted to Restaurant, Airline, Hotel stocks than to ALM.
This sounds like a negative post but I think it's important to look at the reasons why we are where we are. We cannot continue to deny that Covid has thwarted the adoption of new business models and we must face the fact that the reasons why we bought ALM initially may still exist but the investment case i
Hi All,
Long term holder of ALM here (since 2015) and watched the chat for sometime but thought I would get involved.
For what its worth i think the reason the share price has dipped is purely to do with fact that the only trading in town is day/chart traders and the MM's and then the overall negative impact of tech stocks, nothing to do with ALM. As has been said the fundamentals haven't changed and keep improving, all three subs are perfectly placed and have real potential to take off massively. However for a step change the key is going to be concrete commercial contracts and actual revenues on the back of them IMO.
We have a steady flow of good news this year so my question is there any evidence that we can expect revenues in the half yearly announcement, or are we going to be waiting for another 12 months before we see that.
From memory first commercial deployments of CBRS were tail end of last year??
Would be grateful for any thoughts??
Nuck - we all have an agenda!
6 months ago I’d have sold at 44. But the long term prospects of the assets Alm holds is excellent I think.
Don’t sweat over the recent dips.
And it’d be good to hear why you think the stock has dropped a third :)
I’m not complaining to you.
You've made some poor decisions and you complain about them to us. It's not anyone's problem but your own. Keep it to yourself.
What's the reason nuckyt?
Echo, I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again. I’ve not got an agenda. What agenda do you think I’ve got? I shoulda have sold at 44. So should you have! There’s a reason this stock had dropped a third of its value in the space of a few weeks.
When we finally reach £1 I think I'll be more happy for Nucky than myself. No more crying into his porridge every morning.
Nuck
I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again - you should’ve sold at 44!!
Having conflicting views on this board is healthy but you’re agenda is completely different to a few others.
No one can guarantee where Alm will end up. But I’m more than happy to take the risk.
You should’ve sold matey!!
Echo, you’ve still got time to average down. This is going low 20’s soon although I don’t see any point averaging down
I've never made any predictions.
I just can't stand he whinging, much like the people on LLOY.
The only thing that frustrates me is posters on this board painting everything a nice rosy colour. I had £12K invested here and tried to sell out a few weeks ago. Messed up then I admit. Anyway, you’ve not been right yet about this share. Not once
80% of ALM shares are institutionally held
For me that says a huge amount. An IPO for fed or spin isn't near IMO but you're right Dorsett - if we go one the sp would fly
My only regret at the moment is I cant average down from my b/e of 43
Very uncertain times atm, I could easily be out of work again if we enter a second lock down
GLA
The share volumes that change the share price here are so small. 36k sold, 4K bought today so far and look at the price change. Can you imagine what would happen to the share price if an RNS dropped saying there was going to be an IPO of spin or FW?
The fundamentals haven’t changed, the share price is irrelevant at the minute for long term investors. The only thing I see right now is opportunity. Hard luck if you’re a day trader!
I'll admit to being surprised by the extent of the share price decline and it's perfectly understandable to be a little frustrated. But as Echo and Nix already said; nothing has changed regarding the underlying investments. Unfortunately this could have further to drop in the short term. I'm looking to after the US elections when sentiment may improve and the auctions in Dec/Jan will add further upside. Long term I'm still confident but it's sometimes difficult to see through the current sentiment.
Thanks nix :-)
Fundamentals haven’t changed here.
I’m holding ALM (or rather I’m believing in spin, fed and bridgecomm) long term
GLA