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SP may bottom out at about £7.50/ £ 7.70 if nothing positive materialises for equity sentiment and oil goes under $30 in the near term, and/ but oil as one commentator put it WILL remain volatile to the downside and no bottom is there yet
should read: ...sales/aution prices....
Used equipment sales/auctions have decreased for 8 consecutive months according to recent data. However core rental equipment auction prices have stabilised to about 4Q 2014 levels Flight to safety: Yen:Gold;Bonds
should read: ..... UK constr company Redrow.....
Analyst comment: ...instead of looking for a market low,choose stocks in telecoms,utilities and overweight defensive versus cyclicals... ......recent weak dollar is a result of weaker than expected US Qly data..... ....40% of S&P 500 is already in bear territory,but in 2008 it was twice this... USA data: nfib small business optimism index redbook jolts wholesale trade Oil analyst comment: ....fall off in US diesel demand refiects softening in industrial/manufacturing and transport as in rail etc... German industrial production down this am for a 2nd month despite strong demand in german economy The markets were fragile and illiquid enough and this sell off does not help as one analyst commented. UK constr company reports today AHT sp may stabilise! but as long as markets trend south it probably will follow URI BUT when you get recession worries AHT will not be a stock of choice. All eyes on Fed/Yellen when she goes to Capitol Hill on Wednesday/Thursday and lets hope she says what the investors want to hear Have a wild day
u no aht inside out gis the shout when 2 get in again cheers
Some EU banks including Deutsche Bank may have a problem £7 high come on down Have a wild day
Market will stabilise on favourable Fed/Yellen remarks mid week Oil/China-reserves/EM's',Fed hike!/global recession and geopolitical Low£8 come on down Have a wild day
Analyst comment: Investors fretting on global growth concerns this am and an ugly day on Wall Street awaits ------------------------------ One tech guru reckons S&P500 could bottom out at 15500!!!!!!!! And value on the way Have a wild day
City comment: Commodity rout will go beyond 2016 which will be a rough year Market volatility is also re-pricing and looking for fair value Oil to be low for about 10!years Have a wild monday
...since 2015...should read: 'since July 2015'
Editorial comment: Construction firms added 18000 jobs in Jan,construction employment highest since 2008 and construction employment at 17 year low. The January figures mark a significant decline in the rate of growth compared to the end of last year. It could reflect either a slowdown in non-residential construction activity or a skilled labour shortage. Non-residential construction jobs declined 2300 in January and for 2015 jobs created are 115000 which is a 2.9% increase YOY. It will take a few months to evaluate whether it's a labour problem or if the broader economic uncertainty is leading to a decline in demand for many types of construction services. Non-residential construction spending by both private and public sectors has been flat or declining since 2015. With the Transportation/infrastructure Bill passed,this will kick in later in the year for heavy and civil engineering construction projects-highways,bridges,water/sewage etc. 71% of contractors surveyed remain optimistic 2016. Rental rates would have to increase about 15% before contractors would consider supplying their own plant. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Uncertain times make rental companies a safer option and uncertainty is not going away in a hurry. As CEO of URI commented last August is that the oil price needs to stabilise. JP Morgan recently updated its price for oil to be around $30 for 4Q 2016. Recent broker forecasts give sp between £10 and £12 AHT sp should move between £8.50 + and £9.50+ for the coming months till a clearer picture develops amidst all this gloom. Capital flight from China and emerging markets will end up in EU/UK and USA Fed will be cautious and data dependent ---------------------------------- AHT being half the size of URI and broad based and diversified will bring in another good set of results in Qly data/March But for the moment the rangebound sp is giving a tidy $pread Market is also beginning to move the price up which is a good sign,but the market however is too bouncey to help it along Time for a few pints Have a wild Monday
Market comment: Equity market and oil markets with outflows of ££££££££££££££££$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$EEEEEEEEEEEEEEE have significantly less liquidity and with this all important shock absorber not in good shape then the markets will whiplash all over the place/VOLATILITY anybody to invest at the moment would have to be insane IMF comment: Outflows of capital from emerging/developing markets a serious cause for concern Whole world slowing down USA data: FOMC job data etc international trade rig count consumer credit Germant factory orders disappoint US job number forecast around 190000 If job number is too weak or too strong it could lead to a sell off in equities As one oil analyst said about oil is that it's a ca$h flow problem pure and simple,they need to service their operations/debts AHT sp steady and di$hing up a tidy spread of 20+ p Have a wild day AHT sp dishing up a steady spread around
Market comment: Non-opec oil production including in the US is falling off and rebalancing around 4Q will give a price of $50 around China imports of oil was up in 2015 and also hefty oil imports continue in 2016 USA data: mba mortg's adp employment data job creation data pmi/ism mnfg data eia petroleum data EU data pmi coming in ok UK data pmi General sentiment: Markets nervous and ri$$$k Off AHT sp may settle at around £8.50 and serious value Have a wild day
Vehicle sales continue to the upside Market comment: The oil market is huge with trading etc but it's a case of the tail(oil) wagging the bea$t (equities) BP's poor Qly data helping oil south URI down 7%+ at the minute EU unemployment falling again and a + Market comment: Investor flight to $$afety Some decent opportunite$S will present for the long view Have a wild day
Oil to remain volatile over 6/9months in a trendless oil market Oil could go under $30 Invvestor sentiment: risk aversion from equities to safety oil contagion into credit markets USA data: energy data motor vehicle sales redbook City comment: falling oil never caused a recession ------------------------------ AHT sp is rangebound between £8 high and £9 low and market supports here until the next panic attack or more positive data for rental market emerges and gives better direction BP comment: Profits down 91% Have a wild dayu
Oil expected to be around $50 at 4Q 2016 and 60$+ at 4Q 2017
Analyst comment: Friday's rebound was due to BOJ and also pension fund managers re-balancing their portfolios at end of month By weeks end approx. 40% of US companies will have reported earnings Friday non - farm payroll data etc for December will be released and if its good then the Fed hike is back in play again and stocks suffer the nerves again US data: personal income and outlays US consumer spend pmi manufacturing ism manufacturing construction spending Fed speak A-Plant's Acrow Leada has continued its hire fleet expansion by placing a 0.5 million £ order with german based MEVA,one of the biggest global suppliers of concrete formwork/falsework equipment/components. Cautious week awaits in the run up to the non-farm payrolls Have a wild week
AHT income streams do no rely on income streams from Oil Field Ops or Canadian Rentals to the extent it does for its main competitor in US, <90% lower by some estimates......To say AHT is oversold is an understatement.......USD exchange rate also adds to the sparkle for UK investors GLA.
Latest comment-analyst: Even if Russians/Opec came up with something it would only mean a reduction 2000000 barrels a day and it would have to be monitored/ not enough reduction - only way for oil to recover is equilibrium.At the moment its a supply issue pure and volatile Once balance is achieved oil they reckon will be $80 a barrel within 2 years so long as global demand is there Have a wild day
will opec and Russians come up with a cutback!! speculation Iranians want their market share back and that will not help their plans!! as per city comment SP AHT algorithim waiting for solid facts and in a south trending market wil go nowhere except follow the drift south and Market will peg rental onto oil fall off in URI net income/eps softness in rental rates forecasted by URI for 2016 recession narrative fed hike maybe high yield credit market contagion geopolitical china demand falling off used plant machinery prices softening interesting to see how URI opens US GDP might surprise !!! to upside! AHT sp goes under £8.80 then drift south continues in bearish volatile,low liquid market Rental stocks will not be top of shopping list yet,even at present prices Cautious purchase Have a wild day These rental carry a significant debt risk
£9.80 figure should read £8.80
Editorial comment: Strong demand for construction in most states and contractors have a positive outlook for 2016.But the question that concerns them,will the broader market turmoil drag down demand for construction URI net income for Qtr was down 13% and came in at 169 million $ and significant reduction in upstream oil/gas capex contributing,but the diversified nature of its business across the rental sector gives a good pul$e on US economy and that is grinding its way along and 2.6% GDP is forecast for 2016. Creditors are satisfied that URI still generates decent ca$h flow in volatile and uncertain times Oil will stabilise and upstream oil/gas capex will take off again US data: gdp employment cost index Chicago pmi consumer sentiment baker hughes rig count fed speak farm prices AHT found support at £9.80+ and steadied ,last August 2015 the sp steadied more or less at same level AHT at this price ,$uperb value Market sentiment generally: US is not in recession High yield credit markets (oil-gas), and the other sectors are alright and contagion and all other noise is feeding the narrative of US recession and does not hold up to scrutiny But one thing for sure the deep pockets are making money out of this narrative Have a wild day
URI going $$OU£h in a hurry and hopefully a good old fashioned overshoot to about 40$! A great stock for the deep pockets
URI still came in with a resilient set of data As CEO stated it's the upstream oil/gas and its knock on effects also their operation in Canada contributing US brokers sentiment is that the pressure on stock will be near term. Stock price is also a shorters goldmine The main question for US investors is the economy going into recession and with oil/gas and strong dollar and divergence at either end of the of the Pond and China and geopolitical adding to the mix there hovers a lot of uncertainty and that uncertainty with low liquidity,investors are cautious. AND QE in US has ended and that also is part of the volatility When earning season Q1 completes the market will have a better idea. USA data: durable goods pending home sales jobless claims eia petroleum data Kansas fed manfg data consumer data AHT great value at this price Hopefully it will sink to £8.50ish or lower and sta$h it away for calmer tmes Oil/gas need to stabilise/balance and market will be less nervous. Saudi's production costs are less than 10$ a barrel and they are not going to lose their market share or do the Iranians any favours Have a wild day City sentiment is that the strong dollar is the same as 100 points rate hike and Fed will be data driven and accommodative It will be bumpy all the way to end of Q2 earnings QE has