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So when people call this a duster they are clearly wrong and trying to lower the price.
Somebody with good authority said there is oil there which is worth X but for a big player it might not be worth it.
ADV could put the other 100% and do a JD with a smaller firm that can make it work.
ADV also have £millions in the bank to go find more projects or turn this around.
They already have another 2 projects that they were advancing on...so waiting on news on that front.
And yes, they get JV with someone else to sidetrack this well... partner would have to bring in the cash to carry on further works.
Those that do have the capacity to take on the smaller development, might as well just wait for the current owners, Carnavon and Advance to relinquish it - no point paying for something they can pick up for free if they are patient. Carnavon are not going to divert any of their cash to develop it, they have far better prospects and Advance aren't a qualified operator, don't want to operate and can't afford to do anything with it.
They already have a partner with some cash, CVN...
But I don't know enough to say what may be done, or if there is enough oil be commercial
Dai
CVN has better prospects elsewhere, theyve made it clear its the end for them. This well in Buffalo was drilled using ADV money only at 100%. CVN is not cash rich, they have zero production.
Just under $6M according to latest accounts if im correct. So thats a complete lie isnt it?
calamari is not filturd - total conjecture
Nice chunky buy!
08:09:45 0.70 9,750,000 £68.25k
some whopping buys going through this morning....maybe someones got a whiff of some positive news on the way!
@ Calamari - many thanks for clarifying that.
I assume you sold up just before the crash or are you still holding?
@DBD, Your probably right, but it is a JV so not just about ADV, not that I am expecting anything
But noticed MM paying closer to the asking price for your shares, so worth dummying
Interesting, I get it, but there's people with £17-18k to burn if it goes under, you'd think they'd be more experienced than that if this is total pants £180k More buys than sells
Well that article quoting CVN has depressed my optimism a bit. They of course have access to all the information on the drill and are saying they are walking away even before the wireline logging has been completed which sort of tells you all you need to know about the commercial prospect of this well.
So where does that leave us..I think we can rule out a sidetrack for one we would either need to quickly raise cash and get thrown over a barrel on discount to fund ourselves or two get someone in on a jv but that could be a hard sell with no improvement on the attic knowledge.
A lot of people going on about the 12m could be commercial but i doubt it will be anywhere charged enough to be of interest after all the previous operator pulled out due to that reason.
We of course have other advanced projects to look at and hopefully they have promise but again we need cash for that.The worse case scenario is cash shell status.
Of course all of the above is just a honest opinion on the rns and last nights interview with CVN and there is always a chance until anythings confirmed.Short term we will see lots of ramping as the traders want there 10% but in a week when they have left we will need to see a plan on the way forward so those who were planning more long term can decide to stick or twist..sad
@DBD,, that does not read well, just saying they still have CVN as a partner at the moment....
@Dai
My thoughts too.
Just to share where my head is at the moment , after running through my ADV share history and mulling over @SI's point of view yesterday, and without repeating what other posters has said,:
1. There is still cash to burn to P&A the current well as its not a keeper. You will recall this well was drilled as a keeper, i feel its less likely to be so now. Lets wait for confirmation one way or another. I suspect the P&A will eat up whatever cash is left, its likely to be around the 2-3MM mark at 100%. Near zero cash after liability is not great. I dont know whether its 50:50 split to decomm or will they pick it the tab themselves. I suspect its the former.
2. Ive sold >80% of my shares along the way (derisk, profit taking) and the bulk of the remaining shares were sold yesterday and this am, leaving only 100 000 - less than 2% of my total left. I left this amount as a "marker", see item 3.
3. Mulling to buy 10MM shares should ADV plan to be a new shell, with new strategy (early entry) but it will be in competition with TGR and TM1 which i plan to top up at some point. I won't move until i get comfort from LP etc and provided the new strategy is solid. ( I am a fan of production deal with upside opportunities. Like KIST ). I also still like the management team, although they are marmite now to the market.
All in all, i am waiting for news to decide what to do. Hard to make a decision at the moment. But cash is ready to be deployed should the new narrative is solid. A lot of posters are buying now, i suspect they are better experienced and can manage the risk better than me or most. SI did the same and he is more experienced than me.
But money tree is available to invest if they turn this around. (As @renroc mentioned, to stick or twist). My 2 cents if its even that. GL @ Dai. Hope SGF is fine too
@DBD, after you posted I sold, the sp dropped into a new range too, big following I thought ;)
I had a chance to beat the high street BS, took my profit 0.7%..then it drift back up..
Thought no losses was a good option, dont forget to check he1, its doubled in 7 days, missed out on that too...
Option 3, intrigued, could be a long wait..it was not long ago people were buying shares in cash shells knowing they were targets for another company, something like that...too complicated for me...
What price had you in mind?