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The ordinary div paid in 2012 was 1.81p, or a circa 24% div yield at the current share price of 7.5p. If the market gets a sense that operating conditions are normalising, with the capacity to resume dividends at a similar level, then clearly the price is unlikely to stay where it is. Why should conditions normalise? Because 40 year typhoons tend not to repeat every year. There is chance that operating conditions can take a step above the previous peak given time 1) the third plantation is due to go into production in 2016, after many years of sunk investment 2) while unpleasant, a business that survives dire conditions can learn a lot in the process eg how to manage crop and storm damage, how to protect assets, how to diversify effectively. The cash position suggests they will survive.
this is winter and the drop in output wont chance. can not understand the rise this week, not to mention the previous one after the Nwe Year. unless the board decides to pay dividends which you never know, the buying seems too brave for me.
u seem right...if only for a relief rally (here & more importantly in HK) ...fair play
quite amusing & informative..tks
I have answered your questions. "Trend" - the main operating driver of the price fall has been bad weather. Unless you anticipate a once in forty year weather pattern repeating every year then that isn't a trend. "Plenty of cash" - the cash was received through a placing with, among others, fidelity, wellington and temasek. Not exactly an obvious Pandora's box. "Comps" - in key aspects, such as longevity and div policy, they are poor comparisons. They do all have China somewhere in the description though. I can answer your question about chaoda, but with due respect, I have answered your other points. Chaoda originally held just under 50% from memory - now 5% - I suspect there is a list of reasons they are selling: 1) Chaoda is a highly distressed co and they may need the cash, or have been forced to raise the cash 2) the original fertiliser agreements were terminated in 2012 on achl's request - there is no longer an operating link between the co's 3) some guy in their finance dept may believe that a once in forty year event represents a trend. Btw I'm happy to let readers make their own minds up as to whether the facts I'm presenting are relevant and credible.
not director sells in previous posts ...and that is important difference
I am pleased for you (though clearly not persuaded)...you have avoided dealing with the key concerns here imv...trend, director sells, poor comps, management that has a great deal to prove etc etc ..yr general track record may or may not be good..just posting that it is; well obviously that is unconvincing...posting buys and sells at the time goes some way towards establishing credibility
Significant Shareholder Dealings Asian Citrus was notified on 2 February 2015 that Huge Market Investments Limited ("Huge Market"), a wholly owned subsidiary of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited ("Chaoda"), sold 7,300,000ordinary shares of HK$0.01 each in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") on 28 January 2015 at an average price of HK$0.837(equivalent to approximately 7.125 pence) per share; and 10,100,000 Ordinary Shares on 2 February 2015 at an average price of HK$0.754 (equivalent to approximately 6.465 pence) per share. Following the above transactions, Huge Market now holds 54,426,722 Ordinary Shares representing 4.36% of the Company's issued share capital. Chaoda is deemed to be interested in 54,426,722 Ordinary Shares held by Huge Market by virtue of the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong).
I'm not too interested in comps and trends, which is why I don't do a great deal of posting/reading on lse. I do something more revolutionary - I open the annual report and read. The current "trend" can in large part be explained by typhoon damage. I suspect they didn't manufacture the typhoon. Nor do I expect the most damaging typhoon to hit south china in 40 years to be repeated every year. In the meantime, the assets recover. The cash position is high because of a placing undertaken in 2010/11, in part to purchase a beverage division, partly to fund capital expansion at the beverage division, and partly to purchase a plantation where an mou had been agreed but was not completed. The placees included fidelity, wellington and the government of singapore. You know, highly suspect counter parties. They have since completed share repurchases and special divs, although now the cash is coming in useful post the storm damage. You tend not to find this sort of info by gazing at a chart, or reading the latest consensus drivel. As stated, I haven't owned these shares. My track record is excellent. I have no need to demonstrate it to you. Just to point out, in a manner you haven't been capable of refuting, that comparing a long listed co with a history of divs, special divs, and share repurchases to a a p1le of ****e is not particularly useful.
ok...so give me some persuasive comps that demonstrate the compelling value here... ...I see a common thread /theme: seemingly plenty of cash locked up in China with management whose quality is v difficult to judge from the other side of the World...comps tend to be imperfect, but you sound so v clever, surprise me ...and trend may not be sophisticated, but can be mighty friendly (here and elsewhere...POG for instance) ...hope you are winning elsewhere (not that yr posting history gives much away lol)
4 of your 5 examples don't have a trading history. 4 of your 5 examples have no history of paying a div. Yet you think they are comparable to a company that has both. No I haven't been invested in this stock. "The trend"... Lol.. Verr sophisticated.
some pay div (CAMK), some have struggled on like achl for many years (GNG), some have delisted with palty payout for squeezed PIs (BSST) ...if you have invested in this crock of **** for several years, yr research methods need a reboot lol
How many of those have a listed history of more than a couple of years? One. How many have a history of paying dividends and special dividends? None. ACHL has a 10 year+ history as a listed co, and has paid divs and special divs in 8 out of the last 10 years. The "sell everything China" cliche is, with respect, a poor excuse for lazy research. I suspect the cliche is creating opportunities.
and the other chinese share make strong case (BSST, CAMK, GNG, NBU, GWIN etc etc): serious risk, limited visibility on shareholder value creation ...avoid imv
coming in and picking up the lower priced shares after todays drop[ in share price after the selling
after some large buys coming in earlier this week , had hoped for a move up ,
looks like some may be building up shares again in achl , even if some others may be selling , nice to see larger buys coming into achl again
today again ,
had hoped they would have used up some of the money to buy back shares , hoping it soon happens , has any emailed them recently or been in contact to see if they are going to buy back more shares
interesting to see igm increase their holdings
again , if this is on buyer accumulating shares I hope that if this share price continues to move back up that they make a nice profit
watching to see if news may be released or if they are going to use some of their money for share buy back soon , with so many buying back in , and larger buys coming in again ,hoping that if achl going to release some news that it be soon
anything news guys? or people are having spare money now from the month end?
nice to see the larger buys coming back in again ,and to see achl share price on the move up again
of a management buy out/take over here?