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Thanks buddy. In meeting all day and tomorrow so thanks for the summary. I know bonker, scarlett and libero. Will do some digging.
Nigel, Bankster, Bonkers, Rhaegar, Libero, Lurch and Scarlett: Was that a Jolly Good Ramp? Out of 10, please. GLA Orphan
I hope that gives you a flavour/interest in this company. There are loads of great posters you should read. Once you've found a good post check on the poster's posting record, see how much they've put on re ACHL then, if there's more, follow the trail. Good luck to you and all posters.......................dyor ;-) Orphan
Very well done, imo. For your 13.75p & 13.91p you've just bought about 18p worth of renmimbi...... .........and a share in three ginormous plantations......... .........and a share in three huge processing plants......... .........and a dividend yield of about 6%. But what about the cash burn rate? This company is cash generative and profitable. It's debt free and has funded all investment in biological assets "trees" ;-) and processing plants out of revenues. Really looking forward to analysis of the interims on 26th Feb. In my opinion, we will see a reasonable profit. Perhaps not at the heady levels of a year or so ago but, perhaps, enough to maintain the level of dividend. And all this after a year of bad weather-related news.
Live: I shouldn't have reposted this but I love the Warren Buffet quote which someone referred to yesterday ;-) "Well spotted, Bonker. It represents a drop of just over 1% on the forecast. As I thought, nothing to get excited about. The second chunk of 50k at 9.17 @ 17.75 was me topping up, I thought beating the market on an inexplicable 4% drop in the ask. I guess that sentiment is all on the AIM. As Buffet says "in the short run the market is a voting machine, in the long run it's a weighing machine". Therefore I look forward to the trading update, and full figures over the coming year(s)."
There are two in Beihai and Hepu which have been juicing, pureeing and freezing fruit and veg for some years. This is no sideline as last year they contributed almost 40% of revenues and over 80% of net profits. This latter figure is distorted by the industry practice of re/devaluating "biological assets" (trees!) each year. 2012/13 saw a massive devaluation. The third processing plant in Baise is most certainly up and running, having done its trials at the end of last year and early this year. How much revenue it will generate in the remainder of 2013/4 will be better known when we get the interim report next February. We shouldn't expect too much as we have been advised by the BoD that such plants take 3-5 years to get to optimal capacity. Much of the info I post, as well as being in company RNS/reports, is given in excellent postings by the two oldies: "Olderandwiser" and "Oldstockbroker" to whom we are all indebted. I strongly advise reading over their stuff while they're still fit for the fray ;-)
It takes four years to take citrus to productive maturity. Diversification into grapefruit is well advanced and I would hope that the banana trial with its rapid (one year) to maturity will prove successful. Adding value is another critical issue. The strong move into processing is now well advanced with the third processing plant now starting to deliver. Furthermore the development of a premium brand "Royal Star" will, in my opinion, continue to add value particularly when the Xinfeng plantation reaches full maturity to enable such grading. I would like and hope to see the Company less dependent on its local markets. Again, though, the move into processing should, imo, enable the Company to become a major exporter to the vast ASEAN, Japanese and Korean markets. OK, this may sound a bit like "jam tomorrow" but I think we're getting a reasonable amount of jam today ;-) as fundamentals, particularly the current low valuation of "biological assets", remain sound.
The Xinfeng prices were pretty horrible, I have to agree. Not too bothered about Hepu. The Hepu plantation had 18% of its tonnage producing trees grubbed out so that drop was already factored in. So the overall crop tonnage (inc Xinfeng) was only about 4% down on 2012. I reckon that as the Winter crop will represent 75% of the year's production, this is a far better report than the Summer crop report in March. The March report saw a drop in SP from mid 30s to high 20s. The November report saw a drop from low 20s to high teens. Oversold in my opinion. Should now be priced at mid 20s though we may not get back there until the interim figures next Feb, which I expect to be comparable to 2012 (negative on fruit plus positive on processing as Guangxi should now be contributing). The diversification into different species of oranges and grapefruit plus the banana experiment (it was in the November statement) and the processing plants give me greater confidence in the long term future of this company.
Hi Zat, without wanting to sound like I'm saying "do your own research", I would strongly advise reading over the RNS chain. This company is steadily communicative. You have to go back to July of last year to go a whole month without an RNS. This BB, also, has a good history of high quality analysis, particularly post RNS. Again well worth a browse and it is not always dull ;-) I've certainly not always got it right (otherwise I'd have waited until 13/14p to buy into a share which I believe to be well undervalued). However, I hope that some of my comments will give a reasonable indication of why it's so "popular". You got me there....I didn't know it was so....otherwise our sp would be much higher, imo. Anyway you've asked the question. In the fraternal spirit engendered by this BB, I'll cut and paste a few of my comments going back to the start of the current season with the Winter Crop Update RNS at end November. Perhaps similarly arrogant posters (lol) will do the same. Hope this helps. To follow (without further comment) my take on 27/11. GLA Orphan
Low revenue and profit due to weather. Not sure why this is so popular. Can someone fill me in?
Forget that I am here for the ride. Been in these previously when they were double this price and I hope to see it back there before too long. In fact I was looking at an old article in the Independent highlighting these back in 2011 and expected growth of the juice market in China. The shares were then 80p. IMO this is a good recovery prospect and I will be happy to keep for the income ... a few discrete ramps from Jolly from time to time will of course help it on its way. Regards
Cheers, back at you, Bankster. Sorry, I hadn't realised your horizon was so near ;-) 15 days must seem like a lifetime to you. Qualifies as very long term, pmsl. Here's to 22p by end Feb and high 40s by end year......hope you can wait that long. All the best. Orphan
...nice & easy
Thanks for that and happy to hear you believe they will paying a dividend at the interims. Last year it comprised an ordinary and a special dividend so it will be interesting to see what they do this time. For all the talk of boom I had assumed sometime before 4.30pm today. In here 24hrs already and waiting! Cheers ...
Good afternoon all. I posted earlier a comment on "maintaining their dividend". I should have made clear that the BOD will not, in my opinion, pay dividends out of cash reserves. The stated policy is to pay dividends at not less than 30% of core net profits for the attributable period. It is my belief that the core net profits to be declared on 26th will be comparable with the 2013 interims. This is what I meant by "maintaining the dividend". I hold that belief despite the awful news we have received over the last year about weather, canker and yields. This is because ACHL is much more than a fruit grower. Most of our recent profits have been generated by our rapidly developing processing operations. There was reference to lower profits emanating from the processing operations in the Jan 2013 trading update. The Jan 2014 trading update carried no such warning. As such I expect the results from those operations to be comparable with last year. The market has, in my opinion, over-reacted to a continuous stream of negative announcements. Only when the half year reports come out on the 26th will we get the good, or not so bad ;-) news. Then I would hope for a positive shift in both sentiment and sp. "In the short term"?......I don't know what other posters think about what are short, medium and long term. For me a 20% to 50% realignment in fifteen days time would qualify as a short term boom. But then again, wtfdik? ;-) All, of course, in my opinion, and, as ever, good luck to all holders and posters. Orphan
Yes, Bankster, I agree with all that; as ever, yr posts are rare but Jolly sensible
I don't know mate but it's unusual to see a MM at top of both bid and ask but since I typed that, PEEL have pushed the bid to 14p so ... Will be watching this with interest as a 13/24/35 recovery shape is possible and that 13.50p buy on Friday looks good for now at least ...
Hi Jolly, I would be surprised to see these boom in the short term. They have had a dismal couple years affecting production and the SP has fallen a long way. However, there is great value in their assets/cash while they get back on track and undoubted growth opportunities in their markets. Hope they will maintain the div at the interims (they have the cash so why not) and at 14p the risk/reward is clearly to the upside for me.
CFEP is Cantor Fitzgerald I believe, is there any significance to that Bonker? I don't use level 2. Nope, no boom yet. There was a 1m buy before open too, so I expected it to fly out of the hatches. I presume there are a few more big sells being filled.
and struggling to get to 14.25p paid (full ask) ...so sellers likely to return?
Still at top of both bid and ask, hmm ...
Not sure to be honest......trading statement on 29th Jan is not so good. Results out end.of Feb...will see after that but all the best if ur in though as it is good company
Check out tonight's posts from 17:00 onwards for a flavour. The management statements from the past few months fill out the picture. I haven't done retrospective calculations, but I suspect it now offers better 'value' then at any point previously. I believe the catches are priced in at this point, thus providing a good entry. All imho.
I'm here.... Rhaegar...saw ur post an fa page.. What's catch here?
where r u? Good test case for yr financial ratios