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Hi Chaiselongue,
My thinking is 1150. The reasoning is that I suspect the div may be cut which will send the sp down, I could be wrong. but the sp just might drift down before the next results update anyway.
Think anything below 1200 is a good entry
So what roughly would be a good entry point if results are poor (ish)? Would you wait out for 1100 or would 1200 be sufficient to create upside?
I agree with your thinking it should be stable but over the months goes up and down like a yo yo.
September will be interesting and if it’s a bit negative I can see my entry point on the horizon. :-)
The business model is one of B2B steady as she goes. Yet the share price fluctuates more in line with a mining/commodities company. Is it inherent AIM illiquidity? Or are the bad at cash flow management and FX hedging? Either way this is a share to trade.
Ha, ha, that gave me a chuckle. :-) good one.
You won't have to wait until September at this rate
The above is my entry point. Mid September. :-)
The results should not of surprised anyone as it was more or less predicted in the last update.
What hasn’t happened and may well happen in September is that they may cut the div as they had said was being looked at .
I will have another look in September and may well buy then.
If it follows last year, then we may get an trading update this week with the full results about 10 days into September. This was the April update:
The Group has a strong balance sheet and liquidity position, with proforma net cash1 of approximately £80 million. In addition, the Group has a £200 million revolving credit facility providing additional flexibility.
As announced in our half year results, sales for the fiscal year as of 9 March, had been approximately £3 million lower than plan, reflecting the impact of the early stages of the pandemic, predominantly in China. Since then, conditions in China have recovered gradually, however policy actions taken by governments around the world to limit the spread of COVID-19 have begun to have an effect on customers in other markets, including across North America and EMEA. Consequently, the Group estimates that as a result of the impact of COVID-19, revenue for FY2020 as of 17 April 2020, was approximately £14-16 million lower than plan.
Over the last few days we have begun to see the reopening of labs in certain countries within Europe, and a gradual increase in customer activity and revenue as a result. However, it is not feasible to give accurate guidance on future sales until there is greater clarity about the full duration and impact of the pandemic.
We are continuing to monitor developments and will provide further updates as appropriate, including as part of our usual reporting cycle in July and September.
What to look for:
Reiterate strong balance sheet = will survive
Sales can be expected to be down on plan, but may still be ahead of 2019.
Key will be whether the search for a vaccine is creating demand and whether sales are recovering and any forward looking statements.
Recent trading statements have been punished for realistic forward guidance even when results have been pretty good.
I expect there will be a drop and then a bounce leaving the shares a few % off the start of this week.
Could someone tell me when the next results are due to be published. I have looked around on various sites but cannot seem to find the date. The plan is to buy back in two days later.
;-)
I am expecting a good drop to around 1200 after the next update based on the last statement by the company anything over 1300 is a no go .
My view of the current price
Buy below 13
Add below 14
Above 14 hold or reduce
I suspect the rate of revenue loss has declined but it will be 20-25m down on what was expected for the full year. This is not disastrous and may be recovered in 20/21. The SP may rise in relief but will probably stay in its 12-15 range for the next year, with the peaks and troughs higher.
A quality organisation.... just needs more stability in its operating environment.
My view is based on the 20/04/2020 rns. Which was not brilliant . Since then the sp climbed to a peak in June then has dropped back a fair bit . As as you say the trading update will be in a few weeks time I’m expecting going on the info from The last update , to see a drop in the sp.
Which I am waiting for ,then I will buy . Obviously I could be wrong and the results may be favourable.
Abcam has very good management in my view and an excellent company for medium to long term
growth. But as they are (and I agree with) looking at investing for the near term future I cannot see
The sp motoring along in the near term. Just my thoughts. Notice the sp is going up as I type. Dam.
Seaking/Denby there should be a FY trading update in the next fortnight.
The last update was in April and suggested some £14-16M revenue shortfall.
They will have plenty of cash having recently raised 100m.
What are you looking for to consider this over valued or indeed undervalued at present?
Do you think this will go. Back to 1260s . I think it just might.
Back in at 1290 .
Still hanging on . I think I will take a 300pound loss with yourgene and buy here if Abcam drop to 1290 buy.
That’s better, back in tomorrow ,but I expect it will still drop a bit, but one bird in the hand and all that.
1300 or near then I will be back in. To high in my view.
I’m expecting a good drop from here on. As the sp is at a all time high and they may well nip the div a bit ,in my view. So I will wait before investing again . Brilliant company, also Will not be surprised if they revisited Horizon discovery within the next 12 months with an offer.
Too big for AIM, should move to the main board....it may cost a million or so in expenses to move but must be worth it for the increased investor base
Only a couple of places off the 100. If it can climb a little more into the 100 and at the same time have a good trading update then it could keep going up.
Be interesting to see how their Expedeon acquisition is performing and obviously the covid effects
How long will this run last?
FY trading update in July could be pivotal
Sold out again and into Unilever sp quite low now. I think I’m going to have to take a hit with Yourgene and buy Oxford biomedica again if it drops a bit. To high right now.
At last a drop back in. Sold to early but a profit is a profit which I needed to add to GSK. Will the Roche antibody test be positive for Abcam, as they did that deal with Roche last year?