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offy prosser
I am 100% aware of that. We are alking about which company to average down. SEL and AAOG merger is a different subject.
Petroleum1: if Angus fails, so will SEL. SEL has guaranteed the loan on Saltfleetby whose terms are deterring all but the most adventurous investors. If Angus can’t meet the loan repayments or the interest payments, or the terms of the hedge contracts, the Lenders will go to SEL for the money.
There is no eason why this do not reappear in some forrm as it carries a lucrative £42m tax
alloance. I was invesred in RMP(Red Emperor) some two years ago and when it went bust after drilling a dry hole i Greenland it reappeared again as FME(Future Metals) in Australia. Although I am still 2/3rd down on my original investment but eventually I should get my investment back. I made an a mistake by not averaging down like I did in AAOG.
One should not do an average down on companies that are under debt situation like ANGS or COPL as these will end up in debtor pocket.I think a meger with SEL is an exellent choice and the reason for the lack of communications with management is sensitivity nature of the whole issue.
LukeBro.
Good question and I will try my best to answer it. Anyone out there who is more qualified to answer please correct me if I am wrong or misleading.
As we stand now we are a shell company with no assets,income or trading of shares on any platform,to get out of this situation we must take over an asset that has a reasonable chance of success.
SEL is the favorite at the moment however the board has said that they will look at other options within the sector. If we join SEL the first thing we will be asked to do is as shareholders to vote on it, however as in the past the board can out vote us, but I would say it would be unanimous to join them. We would then change our name (as aaog is toxic) and shares would be issued on an open market. Our holding will be diluted which is not as bad as it sounds. Yours and my shares at present are worthless so having a smaller holding in something of value is a better position than now.
I sent an email to SEL yesterday asking if the merger was still on the cards but have received no reply and really don’t expect one.
I hope this helps
I was a little distracted when the delist happened and didn’t find out until months after the event. I am also a little wet behind the ears when it comes to being invested in a company that has delisted…
Someone please educate me, if SEL happens, what is the knock on affect to our shares in AAOG?
If SEL doesn’t pay off, what happens to our investments?
SEL NPV=£122.5mm?
You can say it but that won’t make it so.
I think you have forgotten the fact that we must raise 8 million pounds worth of shares and a further 1 million in cash, which would drop the share price rather a lot, but I admire your enthusiasm.
Can one say the following:
SEL NPV= £122.5m
AAOG shares in issue = 439,958,935
If AAOG change name to SEL, the resultant company expected share price will be £122.5/439,958,935 = 28p
I would call it SchadenKarma.
HI Joe .
No still not in AEX but will look at it later in the year around November time. Things here still stagnant and hoping for the best. Just waiting for an RNS asking us to vote on a merger with SEL. Jackson was asking for you he says life in Barbados is fine.
Mouse.
Hi irishmouse. how are you doing these days? Still in Aminex?
Haven’t looked here for ages.....so still a chance all is not lost ?
What is next do you think?
Sour grapes without doubt JODO
Irish
Would this be schadenfreude or just sour grapes? Anyway, I love it!
Former investors of Anglo African O & G [AAOG] might derive some satisfaction in knowing that Anglo Tunisian Oil & Gas [ATOG], the private company set up by James Berwick and David Sefton [whilst still directors of AAOG, in 2019] to acquire certain Tunisian assets deemed inappropriate for AAOG to acquire because of its Tilapia failure, has just been deprived of two of its Tunisian permits.
The Tunisian Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy published in the Official Gazette of Nov 23rd that it had relieved ATOG of its exploration permits for the South Remada and Jenein Centre concessions, which it had acquired through the takeover of Medco Energy O & G Tunisia. ATOG had failed to honour its state financial obligations and now also faces combined compensation demands of $9.2m from the Ministry.
??
..and they’ve predicted pressure build-up, they haven't reported it, as far as I’m aware.
Incidentally. If you look at p.2 of your attachment, you’ll see a photo of the site as it was when Angus bought it, with the planned new processing facilities marked in yellow. Compare it with the recent Twitter photos and Angus’s presentations. This shows the absence of any expertise in these things on the part of the Angus management, or their unwillingness to be candid with investors. Consequently they’ve never met a timetable, even when reiterated with delays multiple times, nor a budget. Not once.
Well, they say they’re expecting more than 5mmscfd when production starts from the 2 existing wells. And that they're expecting a further 5mmscfd from the sidetrack. If they find the wells can produce more than this after the sidetrack is drilled, it makes no difference - the plant they’re building can’t handle more than 10mmscfd. If they get and maintain that volume, they’ll be in clover while high gas prices prevail. There’s no doubt about that.
I do not think that the sidetrack is intended to find an undepleted compartment in the reservoir. I think it is intended to complement the existing production from the two wells as their productivities are constrained by condensate build up at sand face. Looking at the plot of pressure vs cumulative production for the whole reservior
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Saltfleetby-Gas-Field-Dec19.pdf
it shows the various parts of the field are in communication. Also Angus reported slight pressure build up during prolonged shut down.
Mercuria can only get the Angus assets if Angus fails to meet the terms of the loan, including the hedge contracts. All the income from the project (both Angus’s and SEL’s) will go towards defraying the loan costs until the loan is paid off. The risk here is that they won’t produce enough gas in July-September to meet the hedge contract terms for those months, and then enough gas to meet the even higher volume required from October - which will require a successful sidetrack. It seems to me quite doubtful that they’ll be producing much in June. They’re talking about early June for first gas but as I keep saying, first gas is not sales gas and HSE and NG work at their own pace when inspecting and approving new facilities.
Even when the loan is paid off, the hedge contracts remain in place. And the royalty of 8% of revenue, which kicks in as soon as the loan is repaid, will cost Angus more than the interest on the loan. The Lenders exacted usurious terms for extending their £12mm to complete the project.
Why is Saltfleetby still for sale? Angus itself was for sale for three months but there were no buyers for it. Why was that? It’s been suggested that the whole sale process was just a ramp to help them get two placings away but that’s rather cynical, isn’t it? What kind of management would do that?
As I understand it if ANGS gets £7m of unhedged production during June SEL also get a similar amount during the same month. The same thing can be said for future hedged production for both companies. It seem to me that the bes tway to protect against Mercura taking over is to combine the two companes(ANGS and SEL) in one enrity and if you add AAOG as well that will annul the royalties payments as well. After all both companies will be finished if Mercura take over.
The NPV of the gas project at Saltfleetby should not be confused with the value of the project to Angus and SEL. There is a £12mm. loan with Interest (currently) at 12.7%, highly onerous hedge contracts on a large part of production over most of its really productive years and an 8% of revenue royalty once the loan is repaid. And Angus’s ability to meet the hedges depends on their producing enough gas by 1 July. And then drilling a sidetrack (for which HSE/NG approval will be required) to meet the more onerous terms of the hedges contracts in place from 1 October. Several sidetracks have been attempted from the well they are using: all have failed. And this is a company that has never met a timetable and never met a budget. Every time so far that they’ve got close to the date they’ve scheduled for gas production, it’s moved further into the future.
If Mercuria gets ownership of the field, your NPV may be close to its value to them. I suppose they might prefer to take the profits on their hedge contracts and allow Angus to defray the tax on their gas revenue from their earlier tax losses. Or they might prefer to get ownership at the first opportunity. Who knows? But if Angus are as confident as they say they are of producing gas in early June, to earn them £7mm. before the hedges apply, why have they put the company and/or the Saltfleetby project for sale? And why has no one wanted to take them over?
I re-calculated the Net Present Value (NPV) for Saltfleetby reservoir, based on gas price of £2.24/therm, to be £250m. That will make the interest of ANGS and AAOG to be £127.5m and £122.5m respctively. To me it seems that the AAOG £42m tax allowance can only be used efficiently if applied on both ANGS and AAOG.
I assume that Angus are in communication with Paul Forrest who owns 49% of saltfleeby and is a director of AAOG. What his plan is I don’t know but I’m time I am sure we will be told.
I don’t understand. What would be stopping them? Announcements from Angus are unreliable, they could be talking with Aleph Saltfleetby, for all we know. They claim they’re still talking to two interested parties, about selling to them all or part of the Saltfleetby project. Four parties have dropped out. But they could have been anyone, couldn’t they? And where is the Angus “data room”? In the Chiswick office that Lord Lucan went to some pains in July 2020 to assure shareholders would be abandoned by the end of September 2020. It was supposed to be a money-saving initiative. They were all working form home and preferring it. It was all working very well, he said. No need for a large office with a conference room.
The thing investors should ask themselves is why Angus wants to sell itself or the Saltfleetby project on which it’s been working for three years less than two months before they say that project will make them over £7mm in a single month.
How can AAOG be involved in talking to Angus ?