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Ron I absolutely agree with your comments.. Despite really positive and exciting news over the last 12 months- and there has been some great news, shareholder value has been sadly neglected and left behind. I agree there is an obsession with Mkt Cap. We've all witnessed some meteoric SP rises in companies with very little substance but for whatever reason this companies SP has been left behind despite having a solid core business and a nice sideline of Covid activity backed by Govt contracts. Something doesn't sit right and I don't want to keep reading about the smug Board feathering their nests anymore.
I am a little curious as to AR’s standing within the Co. as a result of today’s manoeuvres.
Personable chap that he is in the traditional city “wide-boy” image, call me old-fashioned but I find it unprofessional for a chairman to attend a formal agm without troubling to wear a tie!.
That said, I found it unsettling that a massive 90 million proxy votes were registered against re-electing him as a director, against 150 million for. This is not your ordinary share-holder expressing discontent, this must be the Institutions, and it does not feel like a vote of confidence.
And so it came to pass, that a mere one hour before the start of the agm the proverbial curly finger was exercised, summoning our leaders to the capital for further discussion.
I do love the gloss put on the explanatory rns, “ This decision was made following dialogue with institutional shareholders and demonstrates the Board's willingness to consider feedback and act accordingly.”
I get the impression patience is wearing thin with some of the IIs and the moribund SP performance.
I wonder whether AR’s position may come under some pressure near-term. Or I may be barking up the wrong tree?
Another really upbeat update from YGEN - 80% year in year growth is very impressive and I think Lyn was holding some back, so expect the £15m to rise to at least £16m by the time of the trading update. So that's the best part of £10m revenue in Q2 and Lyn said they feel that Q3 is looking better than Q2. Even if they saw no further growth, we'd be on track for £20m in H2, so £36m overall for the year, which is a material upgrade.
I keep a series of regular calculations going on YGEN and it has historically seen second half revenues being 27% up on the first half, which is £20m, so that £36m feels doable, even without the expanded testing capacity or US revenues, so I reckon with a following wind we could head up towards £40m at the full year.
Surely the market has to start taking notice!
GLT, they are expecting testing to increase quite a bit this half hence the need to double capacity to 200k. It sounds like they haven't really started with the govt work yet as Sept was for getting up to speed so to speak.
Overall, thought Lynn (and team) continue to be upbeat about current trading and outlook for the business. I also thought Adam's response to why SP not reflecting company's performance quite interesting. We missed our upgraded target in FY21 and market may take 12 months to re-evaluate ie effectively to believe again. The results to date certainly helps, and I take it that we can expect a re-rate in the next 6 months, maybe earlier if we have a solid trading update. It is clear we have exceeded £15m and I anticipate broker upgrades to follow in October. We have strong NIPT + Lightbench businesses in US to come, plus core returning to normal, with Covid a big add.
I am more convinced now of my previous write up on this (extracted from before):
Assuming testing continues at this rate, say 100,000 pm, a prudent estimation is this equates to £1.5m pm or £4.5m per qtr. When you add test kits sales, then I would imagine Covid-related revenue will be circa £5m. Add non-Covid revenue of say £5m (before NIPT US comes online in H2), then we are looking at Q2 of £10m! Or H1 of £16m, nearly the whole of 2021 FY income!
If they upgrade FY22 outlook to £30m, remember Lynn said no Covid revenue included currently in the £25m in H2, then I reckon we will make EBITDA £6-7m and will record our first OPAT, perhaps circa £2m. That will be a game changer!
And if we follow run rate, it is possible to be above £30m. Come on!!
I think above is spot on really for H1, especially when Lynn said 50:50 re Covid and non-Covid revenue. Sounds like demand for PCR tests still strong and I therefore, expect FY22 to be £30m or above.
A confident holder and holding for 25p+.