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The losses may not be as bad as first thought though. With the government paying 80% of wages for those who’s jobs are on hold and business rates breaks too, the costs during this period will have decreased significantly.
Once sport returns which I think will be sooner than we first imagined, betting volumes will return as they were before. People rarely change their betting frequency as PMoran described.
This share will return to the same levels as previously held and deliver profits on a year on year basis. This coronavirus has been a gift for people to buy into lots of stocks for a bargain price. Take advantage, don’t miss out.
you would anticipate William Hill has the liquidity to see through this whole year if worse case scenario, all sports and events are cancelled for the year ? I guess the online gaming revenue for poker and casino etc is still bringing in revenue
The Group has a
robust financial position and has appropriate liquidity to absorb the impacts
of the scenario outlined above. We have an undrawn committed revolving credit
facility of £425m and we are working closely with our banking partners to
enhance our liquidity position.
My only reservation with William Hill is the debt to cashflow. If the sports is cancelled for further into the year. Will debt service and lease covenants be the straw that breaks the camels back? I do think the recovery will be V not U for this sector but only if no further sports cancellations. Does anyone know what their debt arrangements are to see them through this storm ?
I think you re spot on PMoran 2021 no brainer at these prices, I still think we will get another biggish dip but we shall see
I get to a similar albeit less bullish result as Gheko but from a slightly different angle. Betting is something most people tend to do as a a regular habit. For some they are looking for the football team or horse race each day that they can bet on. Some have a bet every Saturday or every time there’s a televised football match and some look for opportunities whether that’s when certain conditions present themselves or just certain types of horse races they specialise in (major handicaps or novice chases or whatever). I don’t believe people will change their habit or bet 3 times as much just because they couldn’t have a bet for a few weeks/months so we can expect to see William hills turnover get quickly back to where it was but effectively what’s lost due to the current shutdown is lost and gone for ever. However pre virus William hill was in an ok position and the biggest problem facing them and the other bookies was constant threat of regulatory interference in the uk and their biggest opportunity was the changes to regulations opening up gambling in the states. Post virus much of the uk government is going to be focused on getting us back to normal and saving companies and jobs. I expect there will still be challenges concerning how bookmakers recruit customers and how they identify and protect problem gamblers but I don’t see there being as much interference because whilst it was trendy to bash the bookies (bit like bankers a few years ago and the energy companies more recently) no one in the Conservative party is going to want to be trying to bring down uk companies that haven’t already gone to the wall. Labour will be grappling with a new leader and will have more focus on what will undoubtedly be the necessary tax increases or austerity measures (to pay for the protections put in place) or protecting individual jobs of which there are many thousands in the bookmaking industry and in horse racing (the latter not being able to exist without the former). So I predict considerable losses for 2020 for the period of the shut down, a quick return to normal when everything is back on and maybe a few surprises regarding how much they took from online gaming during the shut down and also some nice numbers from the us. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the shares hit £1.50 by the end of the year and I would like to think they will have a good 2021. Bear in mind that even though the states is a massive market there are costs associated with setting up there in each individual state and there will still be costs associated with offloading retail shops over here. Share price of over £2.50 during 2021 and a steady rise thereafter as the us starts to pay dividends. My biggest concern for William hill is that someone will try to take them over with a cash only offer that could rob us of some of the share price growth but for anyone who has got in a this price they wouldn’t need to worry as much as long term holders who didn’t average down. My 2p worth!
My view - this will be a classic V shaped recovery share. Gambling is a great release and sport for millions of people, always has been.
Virtual e sports taking off including the virtual grand national this weekend and whilst 3 months ish of sports cancelled they will roar back.
Olympics next year, Euro football next year, new prem season etc etc. So buying chunks now especially with exposure into US now for William has the multi bagger label for me.
Great investment chance at this price. As the tide turns the % upside is big.
Looking to buy into the gambling industry and asking for your thoughts on William hill. The main question is would it last if all sports were cancelled for say all of 2020?