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..and dont forget the 3rd Friday every month, tuesdays and thursdays, time of day, bank holidays, tax years, calendar years, month ends, quarter ends, increase in ramping or deramping activity, standard deviations, linear regressions, 10% inflation, FEDs language,....Mdme Lagardes language.. reduced interest rate increase 'is not a pivot'...., fibonacci, macd, rsi, oscillators...and psychological factors, emotional attachment, distress, media 'yellow journalism'...and everything else.
Yep, new CEO just needs a simple strategy that encapsulates all the above and below and we will be flying
" you could also compare with the historic charts, and...."
------------------
Morning Robleo,
I do all that. Have done for many a year.
Or at least that side forms a part of my systematic process. It's labelled the Long Term Trend. One of many varieties of period trends I refer to.
All the other stuff you mention goes in too - as price already reflects the Putin carry-on's/CEO firings etc and all the other things you mention, et al. It's all in there, curtesy of price.
Result? Don't buy in a bear market.
And in an uptrend? - Fill the tank up for the trip ahead.
VOD is still in a long term bear downtrend. So is BT. That's fact not opinion. The fun comes in deciphering when the floor is in.
you could also compare with the historic charts, and just make a few adjustments for the unprecedented events, such as pandemic/putins war/inflation/interest rate rises, oh and change of CEO simple really lol
nice to see you in the xmas spirit guys
What kind of drugs is velo on... i want some
Take Vodafone, for example. The formula I use currently shows that Vodafone’s share price today is looking very cheap, if in the future Vodafone’s share price increases considerably.
The system that I have, using both natural and common logarithms.
In layman’s terms, it works out that over a given timeframe, if the share price rises, then your investment will rise in value. There is a direct relation between share price and the value of investment.
"if you could work out the share price for next march. . . "
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
Annual pivot points? Never heard of such a thing. Hmm.... makes me wonder :)
- But monthly pivot points should be doable.
PS. In the early years of personal computers, I built a simple averages table for the football pools. I could near enough guarantee 4 out of 8 draws almost every week but the other 4 had to guesses. Won several times but very low amounts.
Years later I used a similar system for the lottery. It "sort of" worked in the early years until the law of averages caught up over the years and rendered the whole thing null and void. Would often win £10 infrequently. But that could/ - would have been plain, dumb, blind luck kicking in.
Wound up doing horse racing - with little success but would take hours and hours inputting the data all day so gave it up.
Years later I heard on Saturday horse racing TV of somebody called The Computer Kid who often won.
Thinking of buying some glaxo instead of this rubbish.
Think i would feel a lot easier holding them.
Too many unknowns with Vodafone...
Hi velo, thanks for clarifying that, so just as i thought then? you have too much time on your hands lol
I was thinking with vod dividend currently yielding over 9% and the possibility of the share price being over a £1 next year it could be a good investment, on the other hand it could be a big mistake, if you could work out the share price for next march and this Saturdays lottery numbers i would be very grateful lol
have a good weekend
Not every day robleo, just at the close of the week.
They're just two of several areas of data that I manually input to the spreadsheet containing my copyrighted, fantastico, world-beating, Nostradamus-like formulae, I press click and hey presto out comes the answer.
Well 21 answers - look it's a computer it's leaving no stone unturned.
Then it turns round and says: It's one of those - defo!
When I type in: But which one?
It's says:
Don't ask me I'm not a clairvouyant - those are the mathematically high probabilities that might occur by the week's close, the rest is up to you, mate. But it is one of those. You'll see!
That's when I unplug it for answering back with cheek!
In other words, I self-calculate my own pivot points.
velo, just curious why would you enter the daily high and low onto a spreadsheet everyday
Something I've only noticed due to being a contestant in this weekly competition is that when I come to update my spreadsheet the lowest price of the week AND the highest price of the week, both occurred on the same day
- today Friday; the end of the week.
What's unusual is something similar happened last week - again on a Friday.
Coincidence whilst the SP is under duress?
16th Dec closing SP 83.76p
Exil 85p
Y11-shx 82p
Sigma 71p
Android 86p
Sotonspike 100p
Bushytailed 88.6p
Newsid 103.6p
Raffles 103 5p
SlartiB 92.75p
Geigaboy 90p
Velo 88.5p
Fredrubble 88.69p
Roofer 90p
ATB
@y11....
Hopefully
"They effectively borrowed money at around 110p"
To be more accurate:
The MCB was worth £1.72 B and was converted to 1,518,629,693 VOD shares (including 1.5% interest!). So, for each share VOD got (1.72/1.518629693 =) £1.1326. And today they bought 6,074,521 at £0.8436 making 28.9 p PROFIT on each share!
So, just today's profit = £1,755,536.60 ! If one could calculate the profit (or loss) made with each buyback transaction since 17th of March 2022 and add them all up would come with hefty sum.
What was regarded as debt has turned out to be a profit making investment! MCB holders lose, VOD win!
Back in the old days (pre 2008 credit crunch) Mr market used to love companies with leverage if the return on leverage employed is larger then the interest paid. The larger the leverage the better! VOD debt = E45.5 B with an average interest of just 2.5% and 11 years maturity while post-tax ROCE = 5.1% and now (in the post 2008) VOD is being punished for that!
NNUUTTSS
I’m in at just under 84p let’s see if I have managed to buy at the bottom m.
Unaccustomed as I am to public speaking I would just like to thank my mother and father for being there when I was conceived, my teachers for all their hard work, all the next door neighbours I've ever had for being there when i needed a next door neighbour, my...............and in conclusion i would like to say what a fabulous honour it is to be so acclaimed by such a knowledgeable and perceptive group of people that inhabit this board. I thought this moment would never come but now it has i feel i need to take some time out to reflect and soak up this monumental moment and maybe shed a little tear
.
No way VOD are doing a rights issue. Only companies with serious cashflow issues do that like housebuilders/miners in 2008/9 and more recently Credit Suisse. VOD are nowhere near that. If you look at the balance sheet they have ample liquidity at the moment.
As for the buy backs, they are buying shares to repay the MCBs. They effectively borrowed money at around 110p and they will pay it back by buying shares at 85p. Sounds pretty smart to me.
Not a good day unfortunately everything is showing red today, hopefully 2023 will be a better year, unless you believe in father xmas and your expecting a xmas rally, you never know, it's been thank goodness for dividends topping up the portfolio this year
Accolade this week goes to
"Exil " well done
Speech Speech Exil
Closing SP 83.76p
Full list will follow
'doubt e& will have a view on Vodafone maintaining the dividend, all any of us can do, currently, is speculate.'
Given we were told the sequence of meetings leading to Nick leaving, the BoD then reported they intend to pay the Feb and June dividend...'Committed to min. 9c. dividend p.a.' is what they actually reported at H1.
BoD could change its mind for the June div, but as it stands, they put MDV on the hook for the €1Bn cost savings and look like they intend to pay the June one. A new ceo might recommend they dont because he or she has a better use for the cash, but right now, debt maturity is 11 years + so unless they continue to tender to repay debt early (at a discount), freecashflow doesnt seem to be the issue and paying the june div seems to be current course and speed.
how much value has been lost under nick read? 25B
Besides Vodafone cannot claw back the last dividend. Anyone holding when it went ex dividend is guaranteed to get the payment. Sometime early February I seem to remember. No point speculating about that not being paid. Stress is a killer.
Rock bottom is almost always when companies have rights issues. It's because they are desperate to get money to keep the banks happy.
"Anyone not able or willing to take up the cheap shares got heavily diluted."
There's no indication Vodafone will have a rights issue. One reason I can't see a rights issue is that they've been buying back stock to prevent dilution and another reason is that it'd be madness to have a rights issue with the share price at rock bottom.