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Albert. I meant the Hydrogen industry recieving lots of support, not for planes. I agree thats decades away. VLS has received funding through competition grants, but there is no national support mechanism, such as there is for Wind and Hydrogen. SAF is not getting the support it needs imho and this is what VLS needs to keep afloat.
The Government is focused on Hydrogen and Wind. SAF seems to be missing the mark when it comes to funding. I don’t know why to be honest. It might be something to do with a lack of proven technologies. Making hydrogen is a piece of cake, it’s just pricey. Making SAF, particularly from waste, is unproven AND pricey.
IMHO. It’s ‘humble’ IM, not ‘honest’. At least get it right if you’re gonna have a pop.
I honestly think Velocys won’t be allowed to fail. The government has signed up to various treaties that it cannot afford to not comply with when the deadlines expire, mainly from a global image standpoint, countries will shy away from doing business with polluting economies due to societal pressure. Velocys has been backed by big players in the game and has that oxford university tag that comes with it. Velocys and Competitors solve a few little problems without requiring massive investment in aviation/minicipal waste streams, there’s no huge risk to jobs I.e it isn’t going to put Rolls Royce out of business, our government will like that.
Yes there will be competitors, But there’s room in the market for more than one operator, the last time there was a monopoly on fuels John D Rockefeller was around. Competition is healthy, it pushes innovation, keeps prices in check and provides stability of supply. I won’t be worried every time somebody pastes a link to a competitor trying to do the same thing, it’s proof of concept and right now that is the only risk to our capital as shareholders in these very early stages.
I saw in a interview on YouTube, the CEO has exposure to some 10million shares, so he has plenty of motivation to push this forward.
I have 1 day off and the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
Expat and loosely are the same person Kev, don't be fooled by the "conversation" he's having with himself. LSE is a cesspit for that.
He's a lanzajet/fulchrum fanboy, infact he's a "anything but VLS" fanboy really.
Ask yourself this, if he likes them so much (read his post history) why is he not over on their chat boards, why is he on here?
To answer your question though SAF is SAF no matter what the feedstock. Used cooking oil can be used, so can biomatter or MSW etc... etc... so yes others can make drop in biofuels as VLS can and no changes to existing infrastructure is required.
There are other waste to jet fuel plants being built around the world right now but VLS are the only ones with PP for a site in the UK & Government backing so they're the front runners in this space in what is the 3rd largest global aviation hub in the world. Think about that.
If other waste to fuel plants around the world come on line sooner then that's great for VLS as it will demonstrate a technical feasibility for the full process which will help to unlock the financing here. We're ontona good thing here, hence why there's all the active deramping.
Green stocks are going to come roaring back in the new year, topping up or buying at this level is like printing money imvho and I have done :)
Good luck
Does Fulcrum's product require any changes to the planes etc or is it like what VLS are saying, you can just add it to the tank and go with no changes required? Never heard of Fulcrum before, will be interesting to see how things progress.
thanks
I agree investmaster. I wont get into a debate with XPB because he's simply a troll. XPB and Loosely seem to have the same opinion which is ironic because their posting history is 'loosely' the same... the only BB they comment on is VLS and all they do is deramp... It's almost as if they are the same person with two accounts and one motive/agenda
"imho" that's the funniest thing...I doubt you know what honest means....
Ok thanks Loosely. Some healthy competition for VLS then, however after reading that article again this morning, it’s very apparent that Fulcrhum are several years ahead of VLS (they’ve already built a plant) and as the article infers, their UK plant won’t be their first. Funders will probably look their way before VLS imho.
Expatbrat: Fulcrum Bioenergy has established a UK company back in 2017. This article is their first public statement as far as I know. It is clear from the article that they are aiming at the UK market as well - they are also talking to the government and obviously found a listening ear.
Sorry, that should read million not billion obviously!
Just to put it all in perspective Heathrow alone uses about 5 billion gallons of jetfuel per day. Per day. (Pre covid obviously )
Accepting that a proportion of that will be replaced by short haul battery or hydrogen fuelled aircraft....the market is and will remain immense. Almost beyond comprehension.
The market for SAF is absolutely huge. If the net zero target is to be achieved...even if its only long haul jet fuel thats required in the long term, its still huge. How many oil companies are there? I see that BP are in bed with Fulcrum Energy and that in itself will spur Shell on. Thats what competition does.
And we should never be afraid of competition.
didnt think there was competition ? ooh dear do you think it is worth buying this at all?
Thanks Loosely. I stand corrected. I wasn't aware that Fulcrum was in the UK. I googled some more and your article is the only reference to their UK plans that i can find. Given how much further Fulchrum appear to be and going off what was stated in the article, Id say thats pretty stiff competition and may take the perceived shine off VLS . What are your thoughts?
Thanks Loosely. I stand corrected. I wasn't aware that Fulcrum was in the UK. I googled some more and your article is the only reference to their UK plans that i can find. Given how much further Fulchrum appear to be and going off what was stated in the article, Id say thats pretty stiff competition and may take the perceived shine off VLS . What are your thoughts on this?
Woah! Thats quite a find Loosely. I stand corrected. This is potentially very bad news for VLS? However i cannot find any other detail on a Fulcrum project in the UK so it remains to be seen what they are planning and how this could affect the chances of VLS to deliver.
No, VLS does not have the market for themselves. Read this article from Fulcrum Bioenergy:
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2153608-qa-fulcrum-on-wastetofuel-plant-biojet-prospects
From what I picked up from one of the articles posted in here, the Lanzatch project doesn’t fly in the UK because the policy doesn’t recognise the technology. Policy needs to change first.
Yes, VLS have the market to themselves, but that doesn’t change any of the fundamentals I regularly point out on here. Too big, too soon for them. I just hope for their sake that a competitor doesn’t show up as they need all the help they can get at the moment.
I’m most definitely have not ‘bought in’. I’m not one for catching a falling knife
Huh?
What about Lanzajet & their alcohol to jet fuel plant? I'd say they are a competitor although VLS are the only ones in the msw to jet fuel space & will have the first full scale SAF plant operational giving them an edge.
I can only assume from the nuanced change in tone of your post that you've now bought in again (eye roll). Least we don't have to deal with your incessant deramping & negativity for a while or until you've hit your cashout target at least anyway
I do agree with you on most of those things, however I’m doubtful they’ll be able to meet the 2025 plan. There are just too many unproven aspects and rhetoric around uncertainty in their process. They might need to do a bit more heavy lifting before the funders get comfortable. I also think their backers, BA and Shell, despite their public commitments, may struggle to pump more money in until they both get a sign that the market is improving.
Still, as I say, VLS don’t have any competitors, so if any money does become available, they’ll be the only outfit in the queue.
Currently plan for plant to be built in 2025 expat and all track right now although with these kinds of things there's usually delays.
If you watched SAF being debated on parliamentary TV last week you will have heard that flying is expected to be up 65% from 2018 levels by 2050 & from the cleaner skies report there are calls on governments to introduce SAF mandates for airlines. Infact some countries already have SAF mandates.
Its unquestionable where SAF demand is going, the only thing is whether VLS will be a part of it or not.
I believe they will and my money is where my mouth is. Feed completion next year and finacial close in early 2022. It's not like people need to wat until 2025/6 for a 10 - 20 fold increae on their investment, they just need to wait until financing news drops..obviously that's the risk here but that's also the reason the SP is in the pennies.
It remains to be seen how the demand for sustainable aviation fuels plays out. By the time VLS gets their plant built in 2026 or so, aviation might be in a very different position versus where it was pre covid. They have the Uk market completely to themselves so should be making better advances in terms of funding, whilst the market is right.
I am also around 30% down but i am very bullish on this company and am more than comfortable to keep adding tobring my weighted average down. Of course i would like the stock to be rallying now but i have real conviction in this playing out very well and i wholeheartedly agree that this should be seen as a great time to allocate more funds. TBH i am just a but gitted i dont
have more liquid as majority of my doah is in funds but every spare buck after the bills are paid gets thrown in.