George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
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Sandy yes I agree it’s a gamble but it’s all a gamble, the whole show,
I just see the risk reward here being massively in favour of reward now on BP alone.
Mine is operational, generating profit so no capex funding now needed, additional mine workers employed on increased wages, end to end video clearly shows all operations are ongoing….
So we have a £100mln plus asset (very conservative ) with £9mln debt…. Not too shabby at all really….
Could this dip further before updates…absolutely could this be an 8 bagger before the year is out, equally so… risk/reward suits me well enough to hold 1mln shares now.
With no updates I say we should sit on our hands like good children stop speculating and assume all is going to plan until we are told otherwise.
xcoder: it's a rollercoaster, isn't it. In 2016, I thought it was safe to step in because (a) they had Pickstone to underpin the company and (b) there had just been the successful shareholder revolt over the awful Crede finance (a true death-spiral. Just look at the 2016 chart. Yea gods.)
But no. Bracknor came along soon after, and I learned to watch this stock and hit the sell button fast. The Bracknor RNS was a case of reading it straightaway, dropping everything to log in and sell everything within 15 minutes of the news, and then watch as the inevitable unfolded. Vast has been my AIM education and I have not always got it right. But there ought to be a survivors' club, that's for sure.
Thanks for your reply Sandy. Well done for not actually losing any cash on this. I'm way down and what's left is laughable - lol.
Oh yes, and Faneata Tailings. (LOL.)
xcoder: takes a while to sell the odd spare mine or two, I'd think, and only Manaila (I think) has a JORC. But who knows? They could spring a GM vote to a approve an asset divestment if they thought it would help. Pickstone's gone. So would it be diamonds or a slice of Romania?
Sandy/Firwood - good to see some debate here. The thing that worries me still is the Atlas debt. However, I'm wondering if it came to the crunch, could VAST sell off some other asset to settle the debt and keep BP going?
Firwood:
1. "You say RNS information is fact when it suits your argument and fiction when it doesn’t,"
Actually no. I say it's fiction when it's already been proven to be nonsense. In particular, woolly statements about production and sales being on track, that didn't include any data, and turned out to be flatly wrong. You're simplifying what I've said in order to misrepresent it, in order to dismiss it, in order to suit your ramping. Grow up.
2. "When all’s said and done who ever gets this right we shall see, But even a broken clock is correct twice a day, so whichever be the case I see a winner here either by chance or by deliverance….."
This is not an argument of any kind. Some companies succeed, some fail. I've not predicted Vast either way, but it's definitely possible to be wrong. The broken clock analogy doesn't work here.
3. "You say you are not invested now Sandy so I assume you once were….. when you was invested were Atlas around then and if so why was it not an issue back then…."
I'm not going through my history with Vast today. First in during summer 2016. Dodged some nasty bullets. Caught some rises. Also made some miscalls. More or less even overall so far. Could be a winner in future if they do the right things. Evidence needed.
4. "Oh and why make out that January is it as far as Atlas are concerned, they are supportive enough now so supposing the ongoing communications with the same/other lenders (as RNS) does not result in refinance before then why wouldn’t they extend ???"
January is the contractual deadline. They might extend. But to be clear, you're gambling there. Let's just agree that. You've decided Atlas are "supportive", you've decided they will "extend", and on the strength of these postulations, you're positive on Vast. That all trikes me as very speculative indeed.
Sandy,
I do appreciate your input but……
‘Just facts based on RNSs. If you need the references, then I'll supply but I assume you know that these are the facts. What you've done is take a punt on a company delivering on time and above expectations, when it has previously delivered late and below expectations’…..
You say RNS information is fact when it suits your argument and fiction when it doesn’t,
When all’s said and done who ever gets this right we shall see, But even a broken clock is correct twice a day, so whichever be the case I see a winner here either by chance or by deliverance…..
You say you are not invested now Sandy so I assume you once were….. when you was invested were Atlas around then and if so why was it not an issue back then….
Oh and why make out that January is it as far as Atlas are concerned, they are supportive enough now so supposing the ongoing communications with the same/other lenders (as RNS) does not result in refinance before then why wouldn’t they extend ???
Firwood: my thoughts about your reply as follows:
1. "I fail to see why atlas are being hailed a problem,"
Atlas are due to be repaid about $6.1m by end January 2022. The company expects only $4.9m net operating cashflow from BPPM by end April 2022, before debts, taxes and Plc overhead. That is called a default in the making.
2. "It’s s debt, who doesn’t have a debt, the Bp asset is (as it stands) is worth 10x the debt,"
The value of the asset in relation to the level of the debt only counts if Vast can do one of two things, or a combination, with this asset: (a) monetize it adequately, which (see above) they do not expect to be enough; and/or (b) secure re-finance, on which I note your next point.
3. "Asset backed finance may be just around the corner given the recent high level JORC confirmation,"
Asset-backed finance was not secured from the "Swiss bank", nor from the "Tier 1" bank. The record here is poor; the prehistory of key directors is not shining. Why are we still waiting?
4. "there is no reason to go to this expense unless it is to satisfy a lender,"
Incorrect. Investors as well as banks like to see a JORC and to see it independently verified. "Investors" for AIM companies with M/Caps this low generally turn out to be brokers' clients, who buy on placings, which gives the company working cash, and sell as promptly as they can. But dream on if you think the IIs are queuing. And why no update on the bank for over 6 months?
5. "Atlas interest being paid from production,".
Atlas interest is not the issue. The issue is Atlas principal. See above re due date.
6. "Net profit now we are in the 2nd half,"
You do not know that. Past form for Vast is to miss the target and fess up 3 months late. The Nomad hasn't changed: still Fatty, so don't expect better performance on this.
7. "a fully staffed mine with workers wages increased, reinforced bridge to carry AP’s huge 7.5% over,
Anticipated production is not enough to balance the books in time. See above.
Just facts based on RNSs. If you need the references, then I'll supply but I assume you know that these are the facts. What you've done is take a punt on a company delivering on time and above expectations, when it has previously delivered late and below expectations.
As I said before, good luck.
Tj67
Have a watch of the presentation, I find the Q&A particularly interesting when paying more attention to the tone rather than the words.
https://youtu.be/boLHmXvhw2U
Fir, interesting view. Im only sitting with a quarter of your stake, considering adding next week. I will take the weekend to decide. GL
I fail to see why atlas are being hailed a problem,
It’s s debt, who doesn’t have a debt, the Bp asset is (as it stands) is worth 10x the debt,
Asset backed finance may be just around the corner given the recent high level JORC confirmation, there is no reason to go to this expense unless it is to satisfy a lender,
Atlas interest being paid from production, Net profit now we are in the 2nd half, a fully staffed mine with workers wages increased, reinforced bridge to carry AP’s huge 7.5% over,
Now is a better time than any to be in here IMO
Another month closer tomorrow……
Happy Saturday folks.
eric, Firwood: even if they hit production targets, they cannot pay off Atlas on schedule. That's the simple, mathematical fact. So a solution to Atlas within 6 months is required.
It's breezy to say Atlas are "supportive". They can wait for a compete SP collapse and convert at will. Or exercise their security in a way that Vast cannot control. The fact that they're waiting is not "supportive".
Having said that, Atlas are not miners. So they will prefer to solution too. It will not necessarily be one that favours those who bought shares on the secondary market (i.e. AIM).
You really are being silly ere Eric’s arn’t you,
You have been told no updated until October
So Unless there is an issue that needs reporting you can take it everything is on track as per new mining plan.
Atlas are being very supportive here which can only be viewed as a positive.
Also regarding BP, the mine alone with all the infrastructure is worth 10x debt here so that’s not going to happen is it….
Stop these silly remarks eh,
Good luck.
So the company says when copper was at c8k per tonne we could sell for half price and still make a profit….
With Increased prices and lower recover rates this could well be the best bet we have ever been involved in,
The next trading day is another month closer to the updates I’m sitting pretty here now with 1mln shares in the bag, patience will prevail IMO,
Great weekend all,
F