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Stockholm Syndrome?...but I know what you mean.
I'm relatively lucky (?) insofar as I joined here only back in early May this year and saw this small cap, formative, polymetallic slightly (!) indebted company with lots of potential and a new mine on its books in need of a spruce-up... with projected rise in mineral resource, precious metal prices and an economy in meltdown with QE on the horizon. Sure - some of the spiel might have been a bit hyped (what company doesn't over egg the pudding like bullet-proof glass on a Tesla pick-up) and, sure, maybe the BoD isnt perfect (which one is?) but the potential was there. I was willing to sit it out for months, years - whatever. But I saw some hint of headline figures that meant it was an investment, not a bet. OK maybe a slight gamble - but a semi-educated one. And I'm still learning.
Perhaps there are some more sensitive types here who invested in 2018-2019 and rode the peaks of earlier this year (I know I did) only to see the stock diluted and the SP drop down. That must sting.
I'm 'trapped' in shares far worse that this one (I never learn!). I have a risk-taking streak. Lets looks at the positives of this RNS, and the potential. And be patient. And play nice ;-)
GLA
Finance won't be drawn down until mid-late November and this part of the reason why the share price is where it is.
I personally would like to see the ore shipped next week and wonder if AP can get the invoice factored and not have to do a placing?
On the other hand we should have the final terms for the refinance somethim this week or first week in Nove! This would be really important because it is like a pre-approval and would indicate that it just has to go through a few formalities as the collateral and the affordability will be proven.
This week has seen the visit of the specialists and the environmental people, so hopefully that has gone well!
It is starting to come together and we should see people starting to take positions at this level because IMO once we get rid of the chum- I certainly do not expect to see the share price near this level again!
Interesting to see the website is being updated. ..
* Ramping up mining to target ~38,000-40,000t ore per quarter by the end of 2021
* Production targeted to reach 2,330t concentrate per quarter by the end of 2021 (comprising 1,463t Cu, 593t Zn and 273t Pb)
* Current forecasts suggest Baita Plai will deliver surplus cash (after development costs) of ~US$9,410,000 during 2021
Exactly, all the people saying year life span seem to have conviently passed over the below statements that say 7-8 years down to level 21 with further scope to explore and JORVC other areas using the historical data to pin point these meaning exploration costs shouldn't be as high as an explorer going in blind and hoping to hit something.
"Current drilling, historical drilling and historical geological sections indicates that the Antonio skarn is continuous beyond 18 level and to at least 20–21 level horizons. Exploiting the Antonio skarn at planned production capacity to a 21 level elevation would provide sufficient mineralisation for an approximate 7 to 8 year period and is the focus of a continuation of the incline access beyond 19 level together with a planned underground drilling programme to these levels.
Additional underground diamond drilling is planned for the Antonio North skarn, situated approximately 120 metres to the north east of the Antonio skarn. The Antonio North skarn may provide a similar quantum of mineral resource in addition to the current mineral resources declared.
Investigations of the historic mineral resources will be required to determine the infrastructure levels required to recommence activities in these areas. However, a significant portion of the Exploration Target is expected to be converted to a JORC compliant mineral resource in the coming months as these investigations are conducted and documentation becomes available as per official requests.
There is also significant upside to increase the mineral resources on adjacent skarns through the extension of development on 16 level, 17 level and 18 level northwards for approximately 650 meters to the number 2 Sub-Vertical # and underneath the Baia Rosie skarn."
You have to remember Baita Plai is not a small mine ... it is huge ...,
VAST has identified over $100m of ore waiting to be mine and processed for the next 3 to 4 years and on top of that. That is huge in itself.
There are several approaches to mining ... simply just mine and hope for the best. Smash rock .. see what comes out.
The way VAST is going about it is to JORC certain areas of interest ... JORC ... see what the area is built up of based on scientific means then mine the best / most economical areas .... $100m over 3 or 4 years is not to be sniffed at ... and remember VAST is producing and this is from 1 out of 16 identified Skarn deposits ... it is revenue and this is a low cost mine to operate.
With recent sampling data that has been independently verified we know there are areas within the rock formation that may have exponentially higher levels of ore ... some as show using top Nitron equipment show areas of 20%+ Copper ... Also the figures generated are based on $6650 price of Copper and most know that the market feels there is a bull run to come for Copper in the coming months and years with the demand for Electric vehicles on the rise ... Being one of the lowest cost Copper producers is going to be a big advantage.
Next stop is the first batch being sent across to Mercuria ... followed shortly by Binding Term Sheets and Finance ...
Sandy, your posts are always balanced and informative, thank you....
Pecten: no, I'm not disappointed. Please refrain from trying to speak for me. I'm just irritated by some of today's silliness.
The report is a big win to my mind because it not only supports the previously estimated asset value ~$100m (actually $104m so far) but it also identifies that this is likely to more than double in the foreseeable future.
The Antonio North Skarn might potentially do that by itself over the next 12 months, and there are other skarns.
This is plainly a huge asset, and even this report alone gets it over the estimated value that was long proposed.
No Sandy, just disappointed in the report (and based on the style you choose to reply , you too)
Pecten: good for you. You must feel very proud.
It has no bearing on today's $104m in situ valuation on this initial report.
Are you into overtime yet?
My own post at 16.08
'Wonder how long it will take them to remove the '1,800,000 tonne copper-silver-zinc-lead- gold-tungsten-molybdenum ore body at 6% copper equivalent (Russian Reserves and Resources Reporting System)'
Quick application if an airbrush and the 6% disappears
The mineral resource estimate represents an additional 600,000 tonnes (gross) over and above the reported (non-JORC) historical mineral resource estimates of 1,800,000 tonnes under the NAEN Russian Code as announced on 10 December 2014
Good one! ...are you a geochemist? ;-)
I wasn't making a direct mathematical comparison... 1,800,000t estimated polymetallic ore quantity% from the quote in 2014 and 608,000t @2.58% now when their website also clearly states the 1.8-3.0mil tonne has est. 0.5-2.0% copper equiv. The one isn't necessarily a subset of the other. They clearly haven't mined 608,000 tonnes to work out that figure. It all has to be estimated from samples with a wide margin of error from earlier samples at least 6 years ago.
486,400t @2.58% @$6650 =£65mil roughly doesn't it?
Let's be honest. Investing in AIM is as bad as gambling your money away. Share prices are clearly manipulated, as there is no rhyme or reason as to which way a share price will go. Fear and hope seem to be the main drivers.
Pecten: DYOR.
Btw, you've made 30 posts on Vast today so far. Sort of like a full-time job today. Take it easy.
Sandy 'it was clear for some time' Really?
Please direct me to the RNSs that suggest that as a likely, targeted or even hinted at, outcome?
Pecten: it was very much the ballpark I expected. It was clear for some time that the report would only deal with the near term mining area, so the fact that it focuses on the next 4 years only is fine by me.
There is a great deal of upside beyond that. I honestly do think some people would actually *rather* read a BB than a corporate document. There was some nonsense in some of the posting about a short mine life. What a complete misunderstanding.
Sandy, simple question - were the contents of the JORC what you expected ?
JustAHobby- I hope your not an accountant at work
Playing devils advocate (not literally)...
...but isn't 1,800,000 tonne mixed ore (copper/silver/zinc/lead/gold etc) at 6% copper equiv. roughly the same as saying 608,000 tonne at 2.58% copper equiv. or thereabouts? This is obvs inferred as in quantity% terms and with error margins.
Its still £65mil worth of copper alone...?
ben: "most of the main posters avoid the board on days like today, it just becomes a echo chamber of negativity and trolls".
Yes. Today was a day to read, mainly. Some of the early posts recognized the good news and understood that the JORC was only intended to cover up to 4 years. Later posts dug around for a negative spin.
Best not to worry too much about the trolls. We have some good information with the report, with upside, and sales beginning November.
Wonder how long it will take them to remove the '1,800,000 tonne copper-silver-zinc-lead- gold-tungsten-molybdenum ore body at 6% copper equivalent (Russian Reserves and Resources Reporting System) within the mining licence area' part??
But I'm sure we've all got screenshots
Ben re the negativity
VASTs own website- under operations Baita Plai - https://www.vastplc.com/operations/baita-plai-polymetallic-mine/
1,800,000 tonne copper-silver-zinc-lead- gold-tungsten-molybdenum ore body at 6% copper equivalent (Russian Reserves and Resources Reporting System) within the mining licence area'
Today's RNS under Highlights
'Measured, Indicated & Inferred mineral resource category of 608,000 (gross)/486,400 (net attributable to Vast) tonnes @ 2.58% copper (‘Cu’) equivalent'
You wonder why I'm negative?????? FFS
Those exploration targets are gonna have to be meteoric (actually that could solve the grades!!) to bridge the gap between those two statements
I'm not saying you're wrong by any means, i've been in for around a year and have been openly critical about AP from the beginning. I was simply stating don't let the echo chamber of negativity on a board push you to sell because its a red day (red 3 years in this case). Sometimes its best to step back for abit
Today's news was definitely a big piece of the puzzle we needed. What we need is get the financing and deliver the concentrate as agreed!
Blueformike and Ben, as a LTH, tell me as a company, how VAST have served any of us well?
A company needs to make money to run, not raise money to run. The money train eventually runs out, for example VAL. Another fine example is UKOG that has been bled dry!
Give me your reasons you think we are wrong in what we are all “echoing” today? How much money has the business MADE since AP took over 4 years ago?
I agree its why most of the main posters avoid the board on days like today, it just becomes a echo chamber of negativity and trolls