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As Brexit looms overhead in the UK and the US prepares for another election, it feels like it’s 2016 all over again – but it’s 2020 and the new decade has started with a bang @StBridesP Weekly Brief #CORA #DKL #EML #EME #ERIS #HMI #KRS #SAV #UOG
Being conservative (assuming 380bbl for * Ash 2) 1500 bopd x $27 bbl x 300 days = $12,5m + $3m for Crown + current cash on the balance sheet, $3m. = $18.5m vs £21m MCap.
Potential for a 2P reserves increase and higher flow rates from ASH-2 + Italy coming online.
I really can’t see any downside form here.
Thanks Badger. No disrespect but I hope it is not necessary to meet in Dublin ;-)
Ghrtrader fingers crossed.
I’m very comfortable in this investment. Eager to hear on the latest Egypt drill and accumulating more at this price.
The placing has happened, and it is what it is, not gonna change regardless.
The question is with 4 drills due this year, selva coming on board producing, updates on Jamaica and Benin and their other assets do you think this will still be at 3.5p
If you do, find one of the many other aim listed companies
If you think this will be higher, buy and hold
My short term target is 9p and holding a fair amount longer term
The Jamaica comment is in the full report rather than the overview commentary on the TLW webpage. I might listen to the teleconference call over the weekend to see if the speaker gives a bit more flesh on the bones.
I'm comfortable to sit and hold. Egypt should give them a solid platform to build upon now and they ought to have a decent cash pile at 31/12 incl the $3m from Hibiscus to take into '21. In the event of a *rappy placing I can fly to Dublin from Bournemouth and meet you at UOG !
Thanks Badger somehow I had missed that bit from Tlw, but they would have had to show some commitment to get the licence terms extended surely?
You lucky man living in Dorset, lovely part of the world. I think with objections to onshore drilling in the UK and the green movement getting stronger we can wave goodbye to the likes of Waddock cross and Broadmayne. I doubt even Colter will get another look in.
Definitely lots for BL to update on, could do with another conference call FWIW. Better get his flack jacket on though.
Fingers crossed my friend, let's hope we are pleasantly surprised by what 2020 brings. If it's anymore dilution I will be on the first Ryanair flight to Dublin and personally kick him in the nads lol.
levistubbs - The first UOG presentation I printed when I bought my 1st shares in 2017 had Waddock X 'potential spud in 2018'... shame as its only 10/15 miles from home and I can stick my head over the fence when there's some activity!
Jamaica gets a mention in TLW's report and its not good:
' The remaining write-offs include Jethro, Joe and Carapa well costs in Guyana as a result of drilling results and Kenya Block 12A, Mauritania C3, PEL37 Namibia and Jamaica licence costs due to the levels of planned future activity or licence exits'
I know the new broom at TLW is going to be prudent and get out all the potential bad news out and accounted for but we could do with clarity from BL.
I assume the initial reaction to Benin was +ve as they've stayed in the game post work study. Would be good to have many expert eyes on the dataset though before committing
Agreed about the 3's... no amount of silly pompom waving here or on twitter will change that overnight esp. with the large overhang of placing shares and old warrants. Once the deal completes and the market starts to get regular info flow on production levels, cash etc then it will start to build but I'm expecting slow and steady. ASH-2 will help if that gives us a nice % uplift in production once its stabilised.
Badger thanks for the comments on Benin. One would think shareholders might like to know the results of that £200k spend if it ever was.
There is a lot in the portfolio that requires trimming or comment. Waddock cross and all the other Dorset stuff for a start. I remember BL mentioning Waddock as a potential for work in 19 but there has been nothing and unlikely to be.
I am not too bothered that TLW didn't comment on Jamaica, they rarely do. I doubt neither company wants to pick up the tab for drilling it and the plan for both companies all along has been to find a farm in partner to do all the heavy lifting. One thing is for sure I wouldn't expect anything soon.
Let us hope Egypt completes and is a big success or we will be stuck in the 3s for a while. Time for BL to walk the walk and not just line the city gents pockets.
levistubbs - Benin appears to be an open ended option deal. UOG spent around $200k last year on an initial seismic data review and the option was supposed to have been exercised 60 days after that, which has long since past. BL was awaiting other potential partners to show interest so i'm assuming the option commitment date is being formally / informally booted to the right.
If you think they are quiet on Benin, whatever happened to Acle?
Agree with your 'most of the things in place to push on' comment - assuming Egypt completes. Production with lots of scope for upside, decent reserves / returns / cashflow and a solid financial backer (BP). The existing portfolio does need some review and shareholder comms though. With the exceptions of Italy and the 31st licencing round N Sea blocks, I've mentally filed the other assets under 'god knows' until BL or the operators give some details. The TLW ops update wasn't promising for Jamaica this week. The only +ve on most of this portfolio is there is very little cash committed in 2020 and they'll have little to distract them from integrating 'UOG Egypt' into the fold in H1.... after that the question is how quickly BL gets bored and looks to add something else.
1750mk I am glad you are sticking with it with what you have. I think the company now have most of the things in place to push on and hopefully that will eventually be reflected in the sp when the flippers have moved on.
I feel your disappointment, believe me I was staggered when the news came out with a 3p raising given the assets and given we had BP on board.
The move to Aim was where they always wanted to be as that is how they have acted with all the raises, like your typical Aim company.
Like you say they had the chance to put it right and do things a lot better, they didn't and what was more disappointing was the excuses used again by Brian for the poor price.
Let's keep our fingers crossed that finally we are on our way to better days. As Del Boi says we are cashed up and now we have income. Be nice to hear something soon about ASH-2.
Regarding Benin it doesn't seem to warrant a mention anymore.
Can’t ignore the cash position 1750, with funds from the crown deal incoming and production on the increase, both in Egypt and Italy, the company will be priced at cash in a matter of months. I’ve been frustrated by the past few years performance but used the 3p placing to increase my holding, I’m still adding too. The Ash result could be a game changer In Itself.
we agree on Lofgran
see he's just had it stuck to him on NTOG
Requisition for GM to remove him
Been disappointed with all of them tbh Levi... too much fwd selling, flipping and ITK dealing all along imo. This deal was the chance to set things straight and prove themselves so raising at a 25% discount to line city pockets again is another fail.
Had high hopes this was the real deal early days but it just looks like a spiv cash machine with an O&G front and the broker's twitter crew pumping it when it suits.
Farming in with Lofgran in Benin, Egypt, Jamaican carrots... can't say I'm feeling it anymore mate. Happy to give it a punt with what I have left in but grateful not to be down overall having learned a few lessons along the way.
I hear ya 1750mk1. As disappointed as I was with one of the previous raisings it is this one that has disappointed me most because when they embarked on this transformational deal it doesn't seem enough thought was given to how this could be best brought back to market to the benefit of all. There are many ways this could have been done but it seems they just went down the lazy route of tapping the City, and not only that, if certain posters who took part are to be believed, it was set at 4p but they got tempted with more money but at 3p.
I have to be happy in the hope that they have bought a great asset and Ash is as good as the tests suggest and the share price will show me back in profit in the near future. But they are very much in the last chance saloon.
Problem is they have set their stall out over the last 2.5 years and that has been their mo. Like Brian turbo ramping the PR up to 6p only to place at 4p... claiming to be disappointed and it won't happen again... yet here we are 2 years on with a colossal overhang at 3p. That weird 'family office' placing with the options.
Percentage of shares not in public hands: 4.64% . ... the only significant shareholder seems to be a PI caught offside.
I'm afraid it's all a bit Paul Calf Levi.
Let us hope it is different this time 1750mk1. I don't think it was unreasonable for anyone to think that when embarking on a 'transformational' deal that we would at least come back to the market a little higher. As it was it has left many of us underwater, with little or no care given to existing shareholders.
I am keeping my fingers crossed this time that we have finished with the raisings for good and the Egypt deal is going to see this much higher once the flippers have had their winnings at long termers expense.
oh yes... UOG is no longer on main market having moved down to AIM.
Onward and upward though, I'm sure it's different this time... started round the dining table midcap in the making transformational deal and all that.
Quick comparison between RRE back in 2017 to UOG now. Both firms are around the same age (going back to Brians dining room)... Both listed on main market with the same mo... to build an O&G firm.
When UOG listed in Jul 2017 RRE had just come out of suspension after its first acquisition having closed at 44p ... RRE is now over £22 (plus dividends) having quietly got on with the business of executing its strategy.... it has returned around 5000% to shareholders.
In the same period, UOG has a string of pump & dump placings that appear to have been for the benefit of the broker and mates and recently came out of suspension following an acquisition funded with with a placing at 3p ... 25% lower than the SP closed at pre suspension and just 20% higher than when the firm first listed.
Quick comparison between SQZ back in 2017 to UOG now. Much like UOG, SQZ started off with a BP prepayment agreement back in 2017, divestment and revenue then steadily increased, as did the SP. Went from 4p 2016 to where it is today £366m MCap, 128p
“As part of the Acquisition, Serica UK has entered into product sales agreements with BP to off-take Serica's share of gas and oil production from the BKR Assets on market terms. It has also agreed to enter sales contracts for Natural Gas Liquids production on a similar basis. BP Gas Marketing Ltd ("BPGM") has also agreed to provide Serica UK with a Prepayment Facility of up to £16 million. This can be used to provide further financing flexibility to cover the cost of hedging instruments which have been purchased by Serica UK in conjunction with signing the Acquisition Agreement and, if required, the Initial Consideration”
Bernard Looney, Chief Executive, BP Upstream commented: ( This is the Irish man that’s soon to be CEO, small circles as I previously mentioned)
"This is an example of BP's Upstream strategy in action - refreshing our portfolio and focusing our activity on assets which will add most value over the long-term.
We remain committed to the North Sea and continue to invest. We expect our production there to double to around 200,000 barrels equivalent a day by 2020 through new projects like Quad 204 and Clair Ridge.”
Brian has made no secret of his intentions to grow the company, the foundations are now in IMO and the relationships forged.
SQZ - RNS 21 November 2017 - Acquisition of BP interests in the Bruce, Keith and Rhum fields in the North Sea