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By Adrian…you lasted a while this time (for you) you started off slowly but then cranked up the ramps with false statements and twisted figures, continually posting and clogging up the board doesn’t do you any favours, you did get a spanking though and exposed as swing trader, and by the way I didn’t report you I enjoyed exposing you…
Penguin, thanks for that, so as you say, as we agree, nothing can be proven either way due to complexities and lack of information, so that is where I'm coming from when I say there's nothing to discuss, nobody is happy with the lack of information but unfortunately that's the way it is....I am not qualified to do guesswork in this field, but i can read comments and research statements and assess their credibility, I commend you for your diligence although i conclude it is over negative.....but thanks for your reasonable reply
'you know that there are no guarantees in any complex procedures' - I think I've been pointing that out for many years - but posters still persist in claiming things UKOG 'expect' to happen will definitely happen.
that was in reply to a post from Adrian where despite 'no guarantee's, and no mention of increased production from UKOG he said there would be.
As for success/failure without full information it's impossible to accurately say, even then I doubt UKOG know absolutely. Will it completely fail - unlikely but possible (10%?) which includes a disasterous rapid return of water to HH-1 from HH-2z through fractures and or the high porosity / permeability zone they were so happy to have kept the horizontal located within - of course, like the water ingress from presumably nearby fractures to HH-1 which took a few months, this wouldn't happen immediately - if it's withing the sweet spot it may herald a brief period of sweeping oil towards HH-1 - which is what would be hoped for but as this doesn't appear to be a 'rising' water leg it becomes complicated.
As for degrees of success up to massively improving production at HH-1 - between 10% to maybe even 80%. But injection is only part of the story. Based on the OGA data the water production increases far more quickly
than oil - even within the tight range of production (averages deviating by only a few bbls of oil a day) that UKOG have maintained. This suggests that a linear increas would mean by 150bopd the water would also be about 150bwpd - whilst oil has increased by ca 50bopd, water increased by about 100bwpd. Then there's gas production - which needs controlling by maintaining reservoir pressure.
But although this isn't guesswork there's a lot of variables and little information and I keep coming back to UKOG's statement which I'm afraid is best repeated in full:-
"We look forward to the conversion of HH-2z into a water injector in the Spring and to the resultant increase in net revenue from the reduction in water handling costs. The significant 66% reduction in general field operating costs over the past year also allows the field to take full advantage of the current strengthening oil price.
Once the injector is in place, to boost production and net revenues, we plan two more production infill wells, one in each of the Portland and Kimmeridge oil pools. These will be scheduled after the potentially transformational initial appraisal drilling campaign at the Company's Turkey Basur-Resan oil discovery is completed, later in the year."
This is from the HH Update 15 Jan 2021, and has been repeated elsewhere since then - saving water disposal costs for HH-1 (good news) but 'boosting' production only with further wells some time in the future after Turkey.
This seems to suggest UKOG don't expect oil production will increase significantly, which is why when Adrian says HH-1 will be producing 300bopd post injection I respond
Penguin, "and could you quote where UKOG have said that the water disposal at hh2 a will definitely work "......your answers are getting sillier day by day, you know that there are no guarantees in any complex procedures, just like you can't guarantee it will fail.....as you allude to being the expert can you please give us your guesstimate percentage of success/failure....ps. does that qualify as discussing company procedures
Didn't say that either - it depends what you mean by expensive, £1mm?
Yeah - ibug was quoting dryboy1, as you are.
Goodnight, best leave you to it
Where have I said any drilling is needed? The CTU or workover rig will be needed to work on the well. A crane may work on a vertical or deviated well but to reach the horizontal will need something that doesn't just rely on gravity.
Why are you saying it will cost lots - I didn't - are you saying a CTU or workover rig will cost lots?
and could you quote (for ozzy who likes facts) where UKOG have said that the water disposal in HH-2z will definitely work for pressure support and they expect HH-1 production from HH-1 Portland to be increased.
Here's one statement from the annual report:- 'to convert HH-2z into a water injector which should significantly reduce current water handling costs and help maximise oil recovery by supporting reservoir pressure.'
Note the weasel word - should. Bit like expected as in:- 'Consequently, the first DDSPP purchase is expected to occur on Friday July 2nd, 2021'
You also misunderstood previously that maximising oil recovery ( a long term aim, and likely to be an OGA condition) meant they would increase the flow rate from HH-1.
Ibug is quoting someone who also said Loxley news would be first 2 weeks in October, and you on twitter tweeted it would be soon on 22 September so we'll see, keeping on repeating it means eventually you'll be right - but wrong every other time, but I have no doubt you'll boast about it anyway - it's what you are.
Adrian - they're doing a half price sale on lifes, due to Cyber Monday. How about getting one?
"Sorry to pee on your party Skwizz"
and btw - it's HH-2z and it's about as 'oven ready' as the brexit agreement.
Lots of work, at least a Coiled Tubing Unit, extra kit and testing to see if it will work - and can't book the CTUor workover rig until permissions come through.
he doesn't know the result of those as far as anyone outside of the deciding body / UKOG knows so he couldn't RNS them today can he - so not news 'he has' as in 'I don't think he has any news, good or bad' - my list is things 'he has' and currently knows - or at least should.
What you're talking about is future 'news'.
I thought in one of your previous persona's here you said the Finch case would be decided the week of the hearing - saying the SP would rise - what happened.
Please don't take us for Fools
Posted in: UKOG Posts: 65
Price: 0.108 No Opinion
RE: Atrocious 28 Nov 2021 07:43
Just for once moderator take a look at the posts from those pressing the report button right now.
Just for once start banning them not me!'
RE: Atrocious27 Nov 2021 22:39
Ignor the trader. A1 master class AH!
Note the spelling of ignore - and in other posts:-
#ujo getting exciting .ignor the rat in the kitchen'
and loads of other examples - put this in the search box:- (ignor) (from:davethedrill1)
'I don't think he has any news, good or bad'
I don't agree, but it's up to you to decide whether the missing 'news' is good or bad.
Perhaps what happened to the application for additional licences to the south of Resan / Basur - of course we know they didn't get them but having RNS'd the application UKOG should update on what happened - is there another 'plan' as this was going to be a focus area.
Perhaps what happened to the seismic acquisition start 'expected' in August, has it now started - of course we know it didn't start in August but why no update?
Perhaps a run down of what's currently being produced at HH - we have never been given any detailed and current information about production from HH-1 - as it would be interesting what the flow rates are when they are producing (rather than the average daily production across a month).
Perhaps whether they are appealing the Arreton planning refusal?
There have also been a few statements about informing the market of results of reports that have surely been completed but not mentioned again:- eg 15/10/19 RNS about HH-2 Portland core:- 'The core is now at a Surrey-based laboratory, where an extensive geological and petrophysical analysis programme is now underway. Results of analyses that directly impact the field's possible increased oil in place and recoverable oil volumes will be reported in due course.
RNS 21/03/18 about BB:- 'Equipment is being removed from the site and the Company will update the market once data and test results have been assessed.'
There has also been a new map for HH which will have impacted in place volumes.
Maybe an update on the Kimmeridge - what more than resources did RPS do in 2019?
Maybe an explanation of why the predictions of flow rates at HH was so wrong - what in the reservoir wasn't as expected.
This could all be encapsulated in an update to the nearly 3 years old '2019-2020 Strategy and Drilling Plans'.
I realise this is of no interest to posters who are happy to wait for UKOG to decide when and what to RNS.
PS ozzy this is what should happen. What is likely (what I expect) to happen is very few of the above, maybe Arreton appeal and Turkish seismic acquisition update - though no acknowledgement of the incorrect expectation.
"Sorry to pee on your party Skwizz"
"Load up fill your boots, Is that Adrian giving financial advice? If so I wonder is he qualified to give such advice?"
I'd be shocked if he was qualified to simultaneously walk and talk...
Even barcharts is more accurate than Adrian's stock price predictions :)
Was it his last account or the one before when he said it was going to 0.14p and look what happened. Best to keep quiet imo or you just look a fool.
Load up fill your boots, Is that Adrian giving financial advice? If so I wonder is he qualified to give such advice?
No doubt Adrian is forgetting the spread after all the time he spent down the path.
What is going to make it fly ??
Correction: 1st trade at 0.119p, 2nd at 0.12p.
Couple of 5.3m trades at the full offer price.
"I don't think he has any news, good or bad"
An admission of SS' worthlessness from Ocelot.
I don't think he has any news, good or bad, but is waiting upon developments, like all of us: collection and interpretation of seismic for Basur-3; Loxley appeal decision; permissions re conversion of HH-2z into a water injector.
all jam tomorrow ocelot, HH is a dogs breakfast, Turkey is another silence pit . CEO's don't say nothing just to be mysterious - they usually wish to keep shareholders in the loop, regularly updated of how the company is performing, where it's going etc etc. So for my money he has no good news whatsoever
Are you still here Adrian? Spouting the usual rubbish, I thought you would have been reported by now, probably most have you on filter…
"Naughty step, did they have one in the school that you went to? Of course, you did not see out secondary school did you."
They weren't allowed stairs at that school.
Some students might have accidentally harmed themselves on them.
Even the carer... teachers.