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Actually Donkey your half right.
I still read the board but would not say I am hopeful.
Donkey , if you want to converse with me - do it on ADVFN and keep this site for TLOU business which you purport to do do, but like everything else you utter, it is False Information Donkey.
There is no disgrace in not knowing something - everything we do know had to learned for the first time! You only know one fact - and that is that you know everything!!!!!
Nobody else thinks that so you think everyone else is a fool.
Makes sense to you in your fantasyland. I'm assuming that you refer to me given you post nearly every time that I do. Do it on ADVFN and get some value for your subscription.
You are consistent on one thing - you say I always want the last word, because you want the last word. One day you'll realise none of us think in the twisted way you do. Or perhaps you are too thick to do that. I'll retract that - carry on regardless.
Ho Ho Ho, quite the blossoming bromance here. Good luck BTS….. unhappy wife and now Puppy Poppy to take care of. You silly boy.
Just a thought - if neither of you knew what FID meant, and you are surprised at how the Good Ship Tlou has been unfolding, perhaps even unravelling, then believe it or not, other more sage like posters here are ‘passing in their pints’ are your naivety ….
What have we learned?
BTS reads the board regularly and is still ‘hopeful’.
Smith - hmmm actually nothing much new learned. Tom Hanks is still his favourite movie star. And does anyone want a sneaky fiver best with me that he puts me off filter at least every other day….. No way in Makgadikgadi he doesn’t look in with one eye …. He simply cannot stop making a total tool of himself.
BTS Filtered IDiot is appropriate too!
"Final" looks a totally inappropriate word for a company that will still be in its infancy by 2025.
If I am wrong on that then we are in for a very explosive 4 years with Gas Flow problems in the history books, and the Hydrogen project expected to be all systems go!
Final investment decision ? 30% CBM Power or is that CBM and Solar, , and 70% Gas, Hydrogen and Solar if it is not lumped in with Serowe power? It doesn't ring true to me. I suspect John found an optimistic agenda that pre-dates Dewatering and Covid and has not taken into account the lost 2 to 4 years? Either that or Hydrogen is a definite fast route to success.
2025 is so early if we get the Orapa contract. That RNS was issued on the TLOU web pages so TLOU presumably agree with it. Very confusing, but surely good news for those that are impatient.
Just took a quick peak at the reports, and saw this ......
"The analyst discloses that when conducting on-site visits to inspect company assets the analyst may receive assistance from the company or companies involved. This assistance may include transport, accommodation, incidental expenses, and the provision of safety equipment. The analyst conducted a site visit to the company’s operations in Botswana in September 2013."
I think I was right , 2025 is old hat!!!!
BTS bear in mind had you listened to me back then, your wife might allow you to sleep indoors rather than the kennel …..
Cheers Brad I never knew what FID stood for.I tried to find out and it came up False Information Donkey. who would have thought.
FID - who would have thought.
More than interesting DTE, I had to look up what FID is.
FY25 looks incredibly early to sell 70% of CBM power , but what does it tell us about the future of Hydrogen???? I hope this news was intended to be public - I doubt it though.
What is FID?
FID stands for final investment decision (FID). This is the point in an energy project in which the company or companies owning and/or operating the project approve—or sanction—the project’s future development. With the FID, the company or companies basically say to investors and the media ‘we are moving ahead with this project because we have (or have raised) the money necessary to pay for its execution and start of operations, and we believe that this project will make money for us in the future.’
Typically, it is the board of directors of a company involved in an oil and/or gas project who makes the Final Investment Decision for a project. When companies say that they have taken or made an FID, they mean that they approved the project to go ahead.
For example, Chevron said in one of its most recent project decisions: “Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) announced today it has sanctioned the Anchor project in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. This marks the industry’s first deepwater high-pressure development to achieve a final investment decision.”
I thought the last point was interesting, once we are producing 20MW at FY25, it looks like TG will then be looking to sell up:
Phase 1: Lesedi gas-to-power and solar PV project constructions starts 1H 2022; 2 MW from 2023, expanding to 10 MW from 2024. Mining life extended beyond August 2042. 10 MW solar production. 80% risk factor.
? Phase 2: Expansion of gas-to-power to 20 MW from 2025 to utilize 25 MW grid connection installed in Phase 1. 70% risk. Phased full field development: ? Phase 3: Field development and 90 MW OCGT power generation at Lesedi from 2028 to replace Orapa diesel fired generation1 . Alternatively, construction of ~150 km gas pipeline to Orapa to convert existing 90 MW diesel power. 50% risk factor. FID Jan 2026
? Phase 4: Development of remaining 2P reserves and 80% of 2C contingent resources expected to convert to 2P, ~50 MW power generation. Assume $US1.3m/MW. FID Jan 2028 ? Phase 5: Development of 3P reserves, sufficient for ~220 MW power generation. 20% risk factor. FID Jan 2030
? 70% sell down of Lesedi/Mamba at end FY25 prior to Phase 3 FID to fund full field development, 30% retained interest.
Agrred TB, TG said he is looking for a funding partner for a very long period. It is why funding has taken so long imho - he has that in Botswana but Tortoiseshell Investments are living up to their name , whoever it is.
The only thing I am left wondering about now, is when BPC get involved in the TL? I guess or contractors will be responsible all the way to getting 66Kv to the Serowe substation, though the report does not include testing in the mission statement. It makes sense BPC do the testing and
produce the final link before we start earning?
It looks like one guy's mission (from the final disclaimer) and he owns shares in TLOU.
Full marks to him , however , it strikes me as an honest appraisal and he has answered a few queries that have not been forthcoming from the company itself.
On the downside, Synergen Met looks nothing like the force majeur that I thought they were.
It appears they built one piece of kit in Tasmania 7 years ago. I thought they they were an established Hydrogen producer and would have links to many users to help sell whatever we produce. And that looks like a lot of Carbon , 3 x the amount of Hydrogen , from the report
John Young did not mention tyre production , but I'd expect more tyre than battery production in Southern Africa. It could be a much longer project than I expected , but what's new?
John also said they'll produce electricity from diesel generators though it is unclear if that is in Botswana or Australia. He does seem to think that our gas at Lesedi will go into CBM power production, presumably when the TL nears completion? If so, Synergen Met has a tight schedule to prove their protype unless we expand gas production in the meantime. Hopefully so?
This paragraph interested me too.
"Tlou Energy is proceeding at 100% interest to develop the gas to power plant in 1 MW stages to reduce risk and manage capex requirements. Next steps involve the construction of the transmission line and initial generation assets, while progressing remaining solar approvals. "
I think that supports my theory that we are not looking for major/long term funds currently , the later we take the funds the later we'll need to start repaying them. Agreeing long term funding and actually receiving those funds immediately are two different ball-games.
The importance of a 10MW PPA, as someone posted recently, is there is now a template for further funding agreements, we don't want $30m for the whole 10MW yet.
The report suggests the $30M might be up to 10 expansions away , though I doubt the 1MW increments! Producing a single 1MW maybe, then expansions to 3MW, then 7MW , i.e. exponential growth each time is my bet! John also mentioned up to 100MW , which I take to mean KE's portion of the initial RPF if they fail to deliver.
Botswana won't worry about getting more electricity in the time they anticipated - they'll take it all and be delighted! That much must be certain!
DtE, I fully agree hence my fag packet scribbles on the 21st below.
I also think they will finance provider going forward.
That's interesting DtE, my thoughts are similair, here's my gut feeling scribbles after converting to GBP, just for fun whilst we are waiting for the Finance.
£7.25M
£5M straight debt at 8% to 10% interest
£2.25M in equity at 3p placing.
Giving 75,000,000 shares.
Total Shares - 600,199,039 plus 75,000,000 = 675,199,039
BPOPF holding was 47,230,769 = 7.87% holding
Plus 75,000,000
BPOPF now 122,230,769 = 20% holding.
If it’s the pension fund providing the finance, to my mind it’s pretty obvious that a decent chunk of equity will be released, they will become partners and the financial benefactor in this project. I reckon 20 to 30% of the money needed will be by way of equity.
What are people’s thoughts on the broker note?
I’m not that excited by it (obv)because 12-13p is a bit measly and the actual sp will only be around half of that value or less as you never reach the top of a broker valuation. Also not pleased that they will probably be coming back to shareholders again but that was inevitable I suppose!