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Yep. Biden update on the US covid plan seems likely to be boosting markets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLxmT-_A7rA
Fingers crossed a very green day tomorrow.
Let's hope it translates into a buoyant FTSE 100 tomorrow ..and THG gets swept along.
The Dow Jones is "roaring" ahead up 630 points as I type
as opposed to yesterday when
"the Dow is plummeting in the US as I type.."
The Dow Jones is 2roaring
the Dow is plummeting in the US as I type..
ASOS and BOO down today too. ASOS under £23 support.
When you see 32 units push the price down below 178p, you know it's not worth worrying about...
House Democrats have reached a spending deal to fund the US government through February 18 2022
Could get a Senate vote before the weekend
come on 182p test coming up. BIG push now. do it for MM!
@pokerchips
To infinity and beyoooond
@mando
My strategy is still to hold as long as necessary as I still believe in the company, even if the rebound isn't as per my original plan :-(
lol Pokerchips
Also, on Bloomberg, every analyst is saying this is currently overblown, so either Bloomberg have only chosen the pumpers to go on today, or genuinely, the panic of yesterday and today is overblown (I think the latter)
Christmas Rally has started ...it is up 2p off the lows of the day ... :-)
No worries Marek. I get what you were thinking. I thought you just might need a bit of a boost :-)
TBH so many times I've had an $h!te time through the non-farm payroll week, then seen a huge bounce on the Friday afternoon or Monday after I'd sold off a load of stock on the way down. I've learned to be more patent now.
Long term I honestly think we'll be fine.
@ Mando
Thanks for your thoughts which I'm in agreement with.
My post was more focused on the trigger to reverse the share slide. My original thesis, Mid Oct, was this share price undervalues the company in my opinion (£3-£3.5bn), so buy, then they smash Xmas trading, happy days.
My original expectations were ;
Normal market bounce SP +10-20%
Positive Trading Update SP +5-10%
New Chairman Announced SP 5-7.5%
Q4/Full Year Figures Positive SP +5-10%
At the time share price was £2.25-£2.45 so that put my target as £2.80-£3.30. Both of which currently seem a long way off.
MarekQ
Yeah ..but that was before the FED and idea of Central bank bailouts and Quantitative Easing bailed everyone out !!! hehe
China must be close to another economic stimulus I would have thought
@ pokerchips
Nice Quotes, I also like this one from Keynes
"The stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" ;)
A share is only really cheap when no one will touch it and everyone is scared of it...
And just to add, Numis also said just a couple of weeks ago they see significant upside to the price, which was 205p when they said that. The upside will come with some more patience.
I don't think the major shorts will have much to gain by trying to push this down much further. There's not much further it could possibly go without looking even more ridiculous. A few % to be gained? My expectation are they will currently be closing positions and getting ready for a major bull run where major % is there to be made with some renewed hype, which is sure to follow.
All this talk about transparency, compliance etc is a smokescreen. THG have probably the best investor relations site I've seen. They've agreed to implement all the requests of the major shareholders, and those major shareholders knew the long term strategy from Pre-IPO. Nothing has changed, and this is why investors with more skill than I, like T-Rowe, Sofina Capital, and this week Chrysalis Investments, have all recently increased their positions in THG.
The stock is highly volatile due to the high level of retail trader interest from the beginning, and the major secret shorts have made the most of those retail traders unfortunately. The THG strategy of Brand Acquisition to the platform, whether through brand purchase or brand partnership via Ingenuity, is a very sound growth plan for the future.
Just my opinion.
“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.”
Shelby Cullom Davis
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“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”
Benjamin Graham
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“Invest for the long haul. Don’t get too greedy and don’t get too scared.”
Shelby M.C. Davis
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“The investor’s chief problem—and his worst enemy—is likely to be himself. In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave.”
Benjamin Graham
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“I make no attempt to forecast the market—my efforts are devoted to finding undervalued securities.”
Warren Buffett
The last 2 weeks sub £1.95 has left me with so many questions on this SP.
Everyone is expecting a positive trading update that will "smash the numbers" as MM told us at GQ yet the SP is bobbing along the bottom.
Q3 trading update confirmed that full year revenues will be in line with guidance, +35% - +40%, yet the SP is still bobbing along the bottom.
Now if the expectation of bumper sales is already known, and hitting full year targets is expected, this would already be factored into the current SP.
The governance issue for me is a red herring as it is unchanged from IPO, and it wasn't an issue that prevented the SP shooting to £8.
So, let's say Monday we get a glowing trading update, best ever, well what does that put on the SP ? 10p/12p
Last years trading update jumped the SP 8% but closed the day only 3% up and by Fri was below the previous Fri close. And that was when the company was still very much a market darling.
So much as I hope I'm wrong, I can't see our salvation coming from the trading update.
So then it down to the Q4/Full Year figures and whether the market is prepared to believe/accept the EBITDA figures produced and whether they detect cash-burn.
I'm in THG for the long haul as I believe at £2ish there are very few opportunities to match it, but like I said at the beginning, so many questions.
Yes knowbodyyouknow. There is bad sentiment around THG. That lack of transparency of the business/ big unknowns I believe is proving too risky for many currently as they cash in stocks/ seek out safer stock plays in the current extremely volatile overall market
As I've said many times before this sentiment could all change in an instant. I've been invested in THG before as I think that reversal is possible. Management are aware of the issues and would know how to resolve/combat them.
Currently it's the sidelines for me re this stock.
*If Omicron displaces Delta and only gives mild symptoms then the pandemic could end early. That wouldn't be a good thing for etailers.*
It seems to go down when noise about the virus is bad and down when noise about the virus is good. It just seems to go down, with the odd bit of respite - bit like BOO.
Bad sentiment and uncertainty surround both companies - near-term and that seems to be what the current SP is reflecting.
Valueplay
If it rains and the temperature gets cold ..that could be good for -etailers
If the traffic gets busy heading into town then that could be good for etailers
If an etailer has it in stock ..could be better than heading down town only to find there are none left
If there are better things to watch on Streaming channels than hike down to the shops....could be good for etailers
If people are worried now ..could be buying online and getting things done
could/might/maybe/possibly/
Non-farm payroll tomorrow. Normally volatile/negative days prior.
Last month though, THG closed up +3.87% on the Non-Farm Payroll Friday vs the Thursday, closing at 203.8p. But the day's high was 215.6p.
If Omicron displaces Delta and only gives mild symptoms then the pandemic could end early. That wouldn't be a good thing for etailers.
Mixed data currently, soon all will be clear. IMO increasing cash on sidelines currently is a good move. Opportunities ahead..