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Hi JSVan,
I agree with your sum of the parts but believe this is not the "aspirational" price level for valuing TEK right now:
1. The Salarius SaltMe! "chips" (crisps in other words) will drive some nominal profit however the real win there will be a licensing deal with one or more food producer. This will carry virtually no associated cost so will drop straight through to the bottom line. A valuation of 4x or 5x sales multiple would be a more appropriate valuation at that point.
2. Lucyd's last funding round of $20m was quite arbitrary in my opinion. Having bought the glasses, played around with the app, read the reviews of other people and seen the 1st class marketing I see this being IPOd at a higher price point, and once a sales trajectory and growth plan has been established (similar to BELL)
3. BELL is going great guns so it's reasonable to pay a premium to its NAV i.e. share price in that there's near term profitability and growth which will happen at least as quickly as predicted - but appears to be happening quicker.
4. The patents around the EV shock absorbers could provide a further upside.
5. TEK also engages in Consultancy with Universities and while this is small amounts of money ascribing zero pence valuation to these strategic relationships doesn't reflect its value.
I fully appreciate the argument about (potentially) rising interest rates being a headwind for growth companies - including for TEK. But there's a couple of reasons why this is fairly irrelevant to TEK. First that even if interest rates go to 1-2% this DCF of future profits isn't all that significant (if interest rates went to 10% then it would be catastrophic for growth companies). I think people aren't thinking the maths through. Second that all we seem to do is discuss TEK as a value play - it's value versus its NAV. It's a growth stock for goodness sake! Thirdly, I think that all of its businesses have moats and USPs that mean even against giant competitors it can win out (Philips for BELL, B&O and Amazon for Lucyd etc).
Lots to feel positive about.
In relation to autonomous vehicles I noted another player now operating in Las Vegas .
A remote driver , delivers a taxi to your pick up point . You then drive the vehicle yourself (only within the confines of Las Vegas currently). This business model means halo do not have passenger liability.
Halo is leveraging off 5G network technology to deal with the low latency requirement. I don’t know how the latency compares to the Guident offering (but Halo looks very effective).
https://halo.car/
The autonomous vehicle market is going to take off. Guident has award winning , patented low latency technology and has built sophisticated algorithms to efficiently manage fleet business. Hopefully it is well placed to take a share of what will inevitably be a booming market.
In relation to salarius there is a significant interest in the product . 30 companies have commenced testing and evaluation. We don’t know the current status but I don’t believe (pure judgement call) interest will evaporate. As evidenced by the FDA guidance and approach, reducing sodium chloride intake is an issue of increasing focus:
https://www.fda.gov/food/food-additives-petitions/sodium-reduction
GLA
Probably worth noting that one of these companies has one multiple awards whilst the other hasn't. They both hold patents so whilst they may be similar in principle there must be a difference. Quite possibly what you allude to Bads
Good points Johnjo, however SODA-LO® Salt Microspheres have been around for ten years and have not been commercially successful.
I would suggest there must be a problem with the microspheres adhesive qualities, manufacturing costs or perhaps that the grains are simply not as small as Microsalt.
Surely if SODA-LO® Salt Microspheres were that good they'd be a mainstream product by now?
NAV at 46p + todays increase is fine/goodness but Microsalt is worth multiples of $3m so I suspect this has an awful long way to run
When’s the Bell update tomorrow ??
And NAV continues to increase with every tick up in BELL.
Now 134p ahead of update of early sales numbers
Thanks JS, aligns with Simon from IC target price of 45p.
GLA
Good work JS thanks very much
Thank you and concurs with views of another respected poster
Below is a rough calculation of what TEK's NAV would be after Lucyd's IPO based on what we currently know and unlisted assets will have appreciated more since 31st May 2021.
Unlisted Assets - As of 31st May 2021 (Half Year Results)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Guidant - $22M (£16.2M)
Salarius - $3.64 (£2.67M)
Smart Food Tek - 43,161 (£31.7K)
Listed Assets
-----------------------------------------------------
Bellescura - 17,100,000 * £1.28 = £21.9M
After Lucyd IPO
----------------------------------------------------
Lucyd - $29M (£21.29M)
Cash
-----------------------------------------------------
Assume £3 million cash from recent placing
Total NAV after Lucyd IPO
----------------------------------------------------
£65,091,700 > Share Price = 46p