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"and very few individuals who turned out to be correct were ridiculed here for months and years and called all sorts of names. Guess what - they were right."
I fall into that category. And I won't apologise for it. I was castigated, ridiculed and put upon. Other have used the term "happy clappy" brigade for rose tinted supporters of this share. I never have.
Here's the truth. With any company, investors can only take what the Company gives them and invest on that basis. And on that basis, recently, Sirius Minerals was a punt. The high yield bonds would fly or they wouldn't.
So, those with rose tinted spectacles bought, held, or increased their holdings. Those with a more pragmatic view, stood on the sidelines.
I bought 4,000 shares to go to the AGM. In the end, it was an expensive AGM. It might have proved to be cheap though. I witnessed the misery on the director's faces through that AGM, commented on it and even posted a picture on the Sirius Minerals Facebook page. They told me everything I needed to know. And so, it was worth the investment because I didn't invest a single penny since. Not even at 10p. And I won't at 5p. And I don't short. But if I did, I would. Imho, for pi's, this journey is over.
I meant you were right about the experts. I don't necessarily think administration is the most likely option. I will get shot for saying that on here though
Yup bang on KOH my friend, bang on.
Have you listened to the presentation yet?
I have some thoughts but will hold off for a while until this board thins out a bit. Assume you will still be here?
"I'm maybe naive but I find some of what has happend today slightly positive. The company has shown it does not intend to go bankrupt, its taking action to continue"
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Wrong. The company is in the process of going bankrupt now. Whoever thinks otherwise is deluding himself.
KOH
KOH....you are absolutely right!....and they all seem to be very anonymous now sadly.
"GK once said it's bonds or bust. Sadly, we have our answer"
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He also said that he sees odds of successful bonds sale as "95/5 or 100/0" recently. I wouldn't take anything written on this board seriously. What I would say is that 99% of the posters here (even the most "respected" ones) simply turned out to be completely clueless with their predictions and very few individuals who turned out to be correct were ridiculed here for months and years and called all sorts of names. Guess what - they were right.
KOH
Share nicely has unfortunately hit the nail on the head. The numbers don’t work anymore.
All we have now is a traders delight with more and more people getting hurt.
Dilution cannot help now. It’s a tragedy.
Good projects are not funded by junk bonds,
unbelievable, so after being bullish you suddenly come to that conclusion???
re figures for mine costs and profit?
some proper fun on here tonight.
I see administration and the mine will not be built.
Equity is not possible - too many shares needed. It needs £4bn to be invested and may be worth £10bn in 7 years time. This is not a viable rate of return to equity investors, for this amount of money, over this time frame and risk. A strategic partner is equity by another name, so the same applies. GK once said it's bonds or bust. Sadly, we have our answer.
I sold out at an average of about 5p, and boy it could have been so much lower! I am surprised by the naivety of PI's who are still holding, who just don't get what today's news means. Remember Gina has security on the mine. I can't see her wanting it - she'll have to fund all the rest herself and as above, equity by another name. No way will this be built.
I am emotionally, spiritually devastated. I am a fair and honest man and it is just not fair that this happened on every body who has put so much work in to this project over so many years. What a great mine it was looking to become. And the news about being so far ahead with the TBM - all top notch, ultra hi tec engineering. So much work, by so many people all gone to waste. It's all heart breakingly sad for everybody's dreams, everybody's hopes. What is this world?
It depends on the size of your holding, I guess. If you have say 300 - 500 thousand shares (some on here do) can you afford to lose another £20,000, having lost well over £50,000? Sorry, you have to accept reality - it really is over.
I'm going to bed for what will be a totally sleepless night, thinking of everybody's pain and loss. Devastatingly sad day.
Gosh the gloom on here today. I'm maybe naive but I find some of what has happend today slightly positive. The company has shown it does not intend to go bankrupt, its taking action to continue. I'd say for those that stay invested there is a high chance to recoup losses, and for new investors a chance to make money. Could be wrong
Only wish I'd had more dry powder, I've learned from this
Sop. Well written
My sentiments exactly.
I am out.
Gla Woodie
Yep your post pretty much sums it up. No way out of this now possible rise to 6p ish may be on cards with some nice rumours but I’d get out now before the big boys start selling heavily
Sippnoob, possibly the first time I 100% agree with you. Whichever way you look at it, the outcome is dreadful. And that's why I am looki g to bail at 7 pence. Any higher than that won't hold, any lower and it won't make a difference to my holding.
This is incorrect. $400m of the escrowed convertibles are getting reimbursed. The remaining c.£200m of non escrow and original convertibles remain outstanding and is debt. There is also £223m of royalty financing.
Avocet. Debt free SXX may be but they DON'T HAVE THE MONEY TO BUILD A MINE!
Imho. The three scenarios left open are:
1] We run out of money. Pi's are fubarred.
2] We get bought out. Pi's are diluted to a penny
3] We get diluted in an equity raise (although I feel this option is not really an option at all given the money that needs to be raised and the number of shares that would end up in circulation. Pi's are fubarred.
There can be no positive outcome for the private investors that helped get the company this far.
And I expect CF did the best he could and will try to plod on but o don't blame him. CF, SXX and all investors are victims to the current market situation, that could not have been foretold.
Case in point, The Norwegian fund and the Qataris. They knew no more than us lowly pi's. And don't forget, CF had considerable skin in the game so it won't have been for the want of trying.
I don't doubt the mine will be built, but as I intimated many months ago, it might, unfortunately, not be with the current raft of shareholders.
Thank you kingrav for acknowledging.
Thanks avocet, for your clarification. I stand corrected.
Sorry kingrav, wrong again. Convertible bond holders are getting all their capital plus coupon back from escrow money. THERE IS NO DEBT.
dire situation with the cash that's left, yes, but debt free we are.
I can’t believe that anyone is even mooting the idea of admin !!!! Your getting far too carried away with the panic !!! This is a million miles away from admin this is essentially still a good company that is lacking investment my bet (and I’ve put my money where my mouth is this afternoon) is that they will either get the funding from elsewhere or there will be a takeover offer . Either scenario will see a recovery in the sp even if that recovery is only partial compared to some of the averages I’ve seen being mentioned
I know that, but they are redeemed against the current SP, that causes huge dilution. If not a debt , certainly a huge burden, for someone else to honour. And surely sxx are tied into payments to the bond to cover interest. It's debt, wrapped in disguise.
You cant be that dim?
No it isn't. They are redeeming them. Zero debt. They are in a bad place but they have no debt. If you don't get that you haven't got a clue.
Avocet, what about all the bonds linked to sxx? Surely that's a kind of debt?
Stop lying kingrav. There is absolutely no debt!!