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Cliff Edge completely agree with your calculation - but would apply a risk factor to NPV say 50% even so the sp looks ( with 10bn shares in issue as if it should reach at least 75p ( £15bn NPV/2 = £7.50bn over 10 = 75p ) once the mine is producing as forecast in all the investor presentations. These are essentially SXX' own figures and the fundamentals remain unchanged.
That is why some LTH remain convinced that there is at least a chance of a good return in time, IMO - its certainly why I'm holding, averaging down and hoping the company are true to their word and pull off the financing. Reading this bb it feels like there don't seem to be many of us left - but there are a few. With any luck we'll soon know how things will turn out.
GLA LTH
No offence at all. The use of the pound sign just confused me.
All on the same team, I hold, tough times recently but if this comes good it will have been worth all the stress.
...sorry, typed this on my tablet, i see now , yes - pls ignore the £ sign infront of the number of share, sorry for the confusion.
Appy, sorry, 1500p was a typo, the SP would be £1.5 (one pound fifty)
10 billion = 10 thousand million (10,000million) i was using this to keep the calc transparent. hope i didnt offend :-)
"...a guess at the SP in 2027?."
Zero
£1.50 is 150p the last time I looked.
Also do you mean 10 billion shares in issue? Not £10,000million
I would be happy if this ever got to 50p if I’m honest.
This share has t exactly gone on a steady rise.
Volatile is putting it lightly. I would even be happy for a spike up to 20p within the year. Not an easy one to predict with all the uncertainty currently in play.
Holding and won’t part with them til I am back even at least
...a guess at the SP in 2027?....
The fool predicted a market cap of 15,000million in their article https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2017/02/13/where-will-sirius-minerals-plc-be-in-10-years/
So plugging the numbers in, the SP in 2027? ...
If future market cap goes to £15000m and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £1.50p (1500p)
So if this transpires, based on an investment of £25,000 today at 3p. You'd aquire 833,333 shares.
Your £25k would be worth £1,25million.
Or flip that around if you took out a short position....
Just hypothosising for fun.
sorry balled that up, i'll try again:-
Anglo American:- Post Tax Profit Last Year 4000million
Shares in Issue: 1,377m , Market Capitalisation £27,258m, Share Price = 27,258 / 1377 = £19.80p [1980p]
Sirius Minerals: 7,019m, Market Capitalisation £220m ( 124th the size of anglo american). Share Price = 220/7019 = £0.03p(3p)
If future market cap goes to £1000million and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £0.10p (10p)
If future market cap goes to £2000m and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £0.20p (20p)
If future market cap goes to £3000m and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £0.30p (30p)
If future market cap goes to £4000m and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £0.40p (40p)
If future market cap goes to £5000m and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £0.50p (50p)
Anglo American:- Post Tax Profit Last Year 4000million
Shares in Issue: 1,377m , Market Capitalisation £27,258m, Share Price = 27,258 / 1377 = £19.80p [1980p]
Sirius Minerals: 7,019m, Market Capitalisation £220m ( 124th the size of anglo american). Share Price = 220/7019 = £0.03p(3p)
If future market cap goes to £1000 and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £0.10p (10p)
If future market cap goes to £2000 and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £0.20p (20p)
If future market cap goes to £4000 and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £0.20p (30p)
If future market cap goes to £5000 and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £0.20p (40p)
.....