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Its the scope and cost of this project vs the scope and cost of the other (jansen) project.
Going in with SXX gets them in the market at a reduced cost and superior product with a 50 year + runtime.
So i think they (and others) will very much be interested.
To protect and maximize shareholder value
Thanks Forseti
And don't forget page 3
MINIMISE DILUTION
We can't doubt the good work of the engineers on the mine. Unfortunately, this good work do anything for the money 85,000 private investors have potentially lost. Is it the case that we have all dropped money down the mine pit for the greater good to create more jobs and to be forgotten about?
Thanks wwguk, given you are not the only one to suggest that warrants will be so costly I may have the reluctantly accept I could be a little optimistic ! we shall see .
Regards
ffc
Still more hopeful than some though ,lol
Just like to point out that item number 1 in the strategic review was ..
To protect and maximize shareholder value.
So hopefully they will be able to do that I think strategic partner(s) with a bit of debt thrown in.
I was following up on BHP and its jansen project woes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-13/bhp-s-20-billion-canadian-potash-dilemma-to-build-or-not
Massive amounts of money already spent by BHP and their current situation is that the are stalled.
I wonder where else they could invest.
What think yeee Trolls ... ?
Well we'll find out in the not to distant future won't we !
"I will humour you ffc"
But you didn't Aubery did you !
You should go into politic mate they never answer the question asked either .
Thought the BoD were hired to ensure that the interests of shareholders were being upheld. Instead we are being used like their personal piggie bank. Share dilution 'should' be off the table as the shareholders have been beaten enough.
sorry, 7.6p cost per share is for 75% dilution immediately after the £600m raised.
After the rest of $2.5b raised:
cost per share: £3.57b/22.65b = 16.21p (75% dilution)
£3.57b/15 = 24p (50% dilution)
You will be lucky to get away with less than 98% dilution and that's generous.
CF and underpromised ha ha ha, you are funny. Better get your pickups and vans ready to help transport 'precious' poly. Have a great weekend.
ffc, even if $200m by strategy partner and $400m via. bonds, I gather the dilution would still be higher than what you suggested, i.e., 10b shares. As $400m bonds are not likely pure debt; they are very likely convertible bonds or bonds with warrants. 14b shares, i.e. a 50% dilution, would already be quite good under the current condition; as it could be a 75% dilution if the investors push harder. In case after the $600m, the rest $2.5b could be raised by debt only, the 50% dilution would still give us a £3.57b/15 = 24p cost per share. 75% dilution would give us a 7.6p per share. Either cases would be much better than the current sp.
I will humour you Ffc, sure the board is riveted!
From memory, the equity for ST2 was 10B ish.
I have no opinion on what the new equity might be, impossible to guess. Might be more shares (convertibles? Warrants?)
But, the cost of this $600M AND strat partner is going to cost us (LTH) , how? Who knows.
$600 million ?
come on Aubery it seems you don't think any of the $600 million will be debt but not prepared to say ?
For the record I believe it will come as part debt and part strategic investor ! Not a big call given that is what the co are suggesting ? And for the record I'm hoping for circa $400 million debt and £200 million Strategic
And ending Up with circa 10 billion shares in circulation not GKs 13 billion
How's that for one of your dreaded Think rampers wild guesses ?
Come on Aubery don't hide behind your doom monger approach and have a stab
Ffc
All of the 2.5B will hopefully be by debt
as of one of last years presentations 13mtpa was going to be 2026 and up until this setback due to funding it was going to be 2025 ! yes you are correct its later now that everything is on hold >
IMO this will cost less because we will sell some bond and the expensive part may well be expensive as you suggest .
Your questions answered now do you think any of this funding might come via debt?
Ffc
You don’t understand because you are thick as mince. 1 year in and 2000 posts of nothing, well done.
The ST2 model didn’t require a sponsor to get us through construction. It is now very late in the day and critical to our survival. This will cost. Comprendy?
Now go check when the13mtpa will happen as you currently believe it will be sooner....
Aubery
On several occasions you keep saying you feel PIs have no appetite for another equity raise ? But that's not one of the options being discussed is it !
and on many many occasions you keep saying that the strategic route will be very costly ?
So why if the co have made it very clear they are talking to financial Investors for Debt ( probably bond imo) is that never seen as a positive by you? as clearly it would reduce this "BIG" cost to us via the strategic investors you keep banging on about
I don’t disagree Myo
Provision of $600M in of itself though will not address the perceived risk or where the liability of the shaft build sits.
This is the elephant in the room.
And presumably where the strat partner helps.
Unless Churchill’s now insure mine shafts.
"Incredible effort and achievement from a company that couldn’t give a damn about 85,000 Private investors"
I would beg to differ, wasn't the "intention" to be all debt for all those whinging investers who can't deal with a bit of dilution?
Let's hope Chris has under promised this time so to soften the blow.
Ffc
The company have made clear the two channels they are pursuing for the $600M
Please quote me where I state ‘no hope...’?
For the record, I’ve been involved in the last equity raises and have every right to be critical of where we are and critical of the company. Doesn’t mean I’m not invested or that I am not ‘hopeful’ of positive investment return from 3.5p.
A decent return from 15p and 20p....unlikely in the short term IMO
Aubery
Do you see all of the $600 million coming from a strategic partner ? You seem to dismiss a possibility that we could get a large part of it through bonds or have I misunderstood all your previous suggestions that there little hope for for us ?
Myo
Much of that £1.2B raised was risk free for 2 of the 3 components. I don’t see bond holders or Gina upset.
Who took the risk... equity holders ( us or as some like to refer...LTH)
This time around it will much harder to do similar arrangement even though we are much much closer to first poly. Can’t see much appetite for increased equity via PI route.
Hence my continued assertion this will come good via strat partner but they’ll take a huge chunk.
I think they just needed to be more realistic about raising the amount capital that they need. I'm surprised at seasoned business men thinking that they could raise billions on a product that Is still in the ground. Why couldn't they keep raising in smaller "stages" millions at a time rather than 1 big lump sum?
Yes, the irony is that the build itself is going fantastically well - or at least it was until the slowdown - SM have a fantastic product with proven demand - but in a country that spawned the industrial revolution we are unable to raise the capital to fund the project and to cap it all our Government just doesn't have the foresight to provide the badly needed loan guarantees.
How ironic, three years of winge,winge,whine, whine we've had to put up with from RUSirius regardless of the share price or progress of the construction of the project!!!.
Sheps8.