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If there was a 30% royalty deal done it would still be better than raising through equity at the current levels. Either sentiment changes quickly and an equity raise becomes slightly more palatable or a royalty deal must be the best option for protecting long term share value.
That is the stated aim of Fraser from the conference call.
How knows what will happen but sentiment can change, in the feb prior to planning this share was 7p and went to 25p quickly just on speculation.
Holding now for the very long term and felt reassured that there can be a way forward following the conference call.
Aubery
Yes, I agree. Not-so-rosy as some suggest. It's all speculations though. Let's wait and see.
KOH
"Shorters beware, it's only tasks on positive RNS, and even the MM will have difficulty holding this back. Prediction. SP 15p to 20p by Christmas"
To clarify, my post was in the spirit of jest. I know there's not a cat in hells chance that us PIs will beat the professionals, the shorters, they have already won, made their money, likely they have more to make.
I am hoping theres a point when they all miraculously close-up probably 1 minute before the SP stars to recover.
I don't expect any of them to be significantly caught out, I think the whole market is stitched up more than Mrs Edge.
I do however expect the SP to be 15p to 20p by Christmas, I didn't say which Christmas.
Not all is lost, theres still a potential upside on this share of 3 - 5 times in my view. Medium term
You've so far got this share wrong, just like I have, I don't think your opinion any more valid than mine.
KOH
And the question I ask myself, why would any halo partner accept an arrangement less good than Gina?
I suspect the Halo, yes will save the day but for a huge slice of future profits. They will after all be guaranteeing the £2.5B and may not see much back for a good few years. We already have 8% royalty baked in. Anyone’s guess what gff bff e next slug could be....
I’m convinced the divi amount to SH is now going to be v small and a long time off..... hence low SP....
See Gina deal. It was genius
___
I agree. All as percentage on gross profits. Fat B milked it beautifully. Security over assets on top of that in case it didn't happen. I actually have a lot of respect to her business acumen, negotiation skills and accomplishments. Some say she risked a lot. I say it's nothing in comparison to what she and her family will get in return over the next 100 years.
KOH
Hell hath no fury like a sulking KOH.
I thought you religious folk were supposed to have faith?
I suggest you lock yourself in a room for a month an listen to George Michael on repeat.
...market cap currently less than the mine will general in revenue each year.
SP low because MM and shorters are paying on financing concerns.
Financing made more difficult due to MM and shorters impact on SP.
Dilutive options less attractive due to low SP.
Viscous circle.
Circle to be broken by SSX securing attainable, favourable, deal.
Reason for SP suppression by shorters and MM gone.
SP rallies market cap surges. Parity restored. Market cap several billions into production.
Cliff
Comparisons to ST1 and ST2 now have no relevance. This is a new project. Forget the past.
For the record I am way down here. I do think there could be some value from here but ....no where near what some are forecasting.
On the basis this new plan goes ahead without hiccup (still high risk) then we will hit cash flow positive much much later, 10mtpa much much later and the slice of the profits we (share holders) will get will be much reduced. High royalty payments will make this much less attractive. And don’t forget ,royalty payments will likely be against gross profit.... not net profit.
The return to any halo partner will unlikely be benchmarked against SP or number of shares in issue (variable and tends to increase) it will be against profits..
See Gina deal. It was genius.
Long and strong but realistic....
Aubrey. Don't you think is has a potential market cap of 1.4billion?, what about 2.8billion, or 3.6billion?
The market cap was over 1 billion before stage 2 financing was even agreed. With a clear route to production your looking at a market cap of several billions? Add in dilution in some form, derisked project, shorters dispersed, FOMO, a white Christmas, SP 15 to 20p. Banging
Some good posts on Facebook for you to look at after the snickers ;)
Cliff I think you've got the apostrophe in the wrong place (and there's a K missing!!!)
Please back up that 20p by Xmas......
A market cap of £1.4B.......
Which Christmas!.. it's a no brainer. Will get built and I'm sure 3p will be a past memorie. GL
My wife said to me this evening that she's been secretly shorting this stock, of equivalent value to my 'long' investment since I bought in a 37p.
I was furious at her, pointing out of the potential for infinate loss on her short position. She has since seen the error of her ways and closed, investing instead in Mars. I've pointed out the risk of astronomical loss, but she wont listen.
Still got a 'feeling' about a positive outcome. Shorters beware, it's only tasks on positive RNS, and even the MM will have difficulty holding this back. Prediction. SP 15p to 20p by Christmas