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Truthfactory has a point (to put it mildly) about lack of cashflow, and the continuing development risk, making Sirius HY bonds unattractive. But as I pointed out in a post some weeks back, Chris Fraser and the Board were surely looking back to the successful example of Fortescue, which had no cashflow and had development risk. The problem with that as a model to follow, as I indicated, was that future cashflows for Fortescue were simply guaranteed, no question, if it could just be brought to the point of production - because it would be mining iron ore, a massively demanded commodity. It seems that the market did not really believe in the deals in place for the commodity that Sirius is selling. I increasingly think that that is the fundamental problem.
Spoke to my provider/broker earlier on today... I said I wanted to talk about a company & it’s proxy vote!!!
He said “was it Sxx “
I said yes....I told him my votes & talked about proxy vote because I was away for the meeting!!!
I ended up voting as the same & everybody , then asked had their been many People calling with Vote ing today?
“ He said yes about 11000 calls & email’s”
I think he Brickin in !!!
If there was never going to be a government guarantee (that SM would pay for), was the whole IPA pre qualification in 2015 merely a charade?
I’d rather the hole was filled in.
Without the backing of the SM shareholders there would no polyhalite mine and even Boulby would have closed by now.
We have shown that there is a market for Poly4. Our money has developed this amazing opportunity.
To steal it away from us is simple theft. I hold a grudge for a long time.
Karma needs a nudge sometimes.
OR
Jpm are the advisors , apparently
Hi Truthfactory. If the original fund raise was doomed from the off why was CF so upbeat and confident of a successful outcome? I say the BODs are not at present acting in SHs best interests. We have the best contractors in the world building this mine, what would Anglo do that will be any different from the present set up apart from stealing all the 100 years of profit. ATB Speedy
Hi Victoria. I am fully aware that time is tight but these processes are all in place. If you really are sorry for your area then stand up and be counted before it is too late. The jobs will still be at the mine but the profits will be going to the banks/JPM/AAL. Just a point of interest AAL owe $4billion to the banks/JPM, how convenient for JPM to hand SXX and all that profit on a plate. ATB Speedy
“Victoria it was over 10,000 when the election pulled the plug and stopped it early.
“It took ages, months, to get a small number of people to even sign a petition“
“Small number” are you a QS by any chance ?????
It took ages, months, to get a small number of people to even sign a petition, yet you think you'll somehow get these same people to do the infinitely harder thing of stumping up 600M cash?
Sovereign long bonds are currently trading at negative rates, Sirius couldn't shift theirs at +13.5%, 8% forget it. De-risking the project? The risk is there until the stuff's sold. Years, and billions of pounds of spend off.
Anybody still holding now deserves to lose what they have left, and will. My sorrow is for my area and those lost jobs.
"I envisage a share issue (dilution) to raise the $600mil to derisk the project. Then with a gov guarantee raise the funds to finish the build via a bond issue, "
All of that within 6 weeks....HMG doesn't need to offer guarantees when there's an offer on the table. I can't see HMG offer to secure a 12% yield when it get it's own debt away at less than 1% , can you?
To it's a higly discounted cash call, high yield junk bonds and a HMG guarantee...OK. Good luck with that.
Hi Devonplay. I envisage a share issue (dilution) to raise the $600mil to derisk the project. Then with a gov guarantee raise the funds to finish the build via a bond issue, that would be mid/low risk . If it means offering a higher yield to get the raise done then so be it. The profits this mine can deliver with the forward sales is enough to satisfy all. ATB Speedy
There is £billions of low yield debt in the world looking for a fairly safe return above net zero (gov bonds etc)
Yes, but it's low yield becuase people are paying for security, this is anything but secure, so you'd expect the yiled to be in at least double digit and being payed at least every 6 months. That why it's called fixed income. This looks like it's been designed by shareholders to deal with de-risking the project, but that's their role. They are the "risk" capital. It's hardly an attractive issue and what's been described look more like seculative equity risk rather than a secure asset. It's not looking likely to get off the starting blocks.
Hi Devonplay. 8% was a suggestion, if that is not enough raise it to an acceptable level. There is £billions of low yield debt in the world looking for a fairly safe return above net zero (gov bonds etc). I see no issues with raising funds to finish a derisked venture. ATB Speedy
Well I agree with the funding bit but lets take one step at a time .
Then lets here the rhetoric from the bod before going further .
My god? best not go there!!!
"8% bond issue"
I had a look at the proposed bond today, doesn't look at all appealing. Equity type risk, low yield for a Junk issue. On top of that it's not paying a coupon (it's compounded), it's not a PiK (so you don't get any upside above the low yield) and there's no information on how Senior ir would be in the capital table.
I can't imagine it will be liquid, listed or available in a tax efficient wrapper.
The last high yield I bought had a YTM of 24%, a coupon over 8% that's paid 6 monthly and was backe by a business that had been around since 1993 and comes along with c£3 billion of sales.
It will never get through ORB/LSE in the time available and I can't see who's issuing the debt, the trustee or anything else. Looks like a pipe dream.
Even junk has to come along with some attraction, at 8% I'd avoid it.
Hi ffc. Your god? HaHa. In reality it is simple, the construction team are still working so no prob with de risking. A $600 mil raise is achievable, at a push. Getting rid of theBODs and JPM is only a vote away. Once the project is de risked there is no reason for the gov not to guarantee a bond raise. One step at a time though, lets all vote no and take back control. ATB Speedy
BTW
good on you for buying back in
ffc
My god speedy
seeing as you put it like that , read it quickly and it's going to be all so easy lol lol lol
fancy joining our PR team !
ffc
Hi All. Judging by the SP, the market is pricing in the risk of a no vote. This is now getting very interesting, maybe, just maybe all is not over yet. With talk of a $600mil PI raise, bridging loans from the Qs, Jupiter making noises. Vote no, sack the BODs, get rid of JPM, continue construction to de risk the build, re look at the GOV loan guarantee, raise the £2.5billion via a 8% bond issue. Get this bloody mine built and let the SHs reap the future rewards for the next 100 years. Have purchased a few shares back to enable me to vote no. ATB Speedy