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I think we have to keep focus on the overall picture here. Not individual component elements or markets. If it was the case that the 2.67bt of Polyhalite had no place in the world market-place then we might as well give up any notion of getting it out of the ground now. These (major) players will look at components, blends and alternatives and will not discount the potential of the intended product (Poly4) against their own products and strategies.
If you were a (major) player involved in another product would you, or would you not want to be a part of what we have? Or would you just let SM and Polyhalite go whilst someone else realises it’s potential and benefits, and you’re own product, due to lack of components suffers? I know which I’d choose - I’d make sure I was at least in on what might happen.
And again, only my own thoughts.
Sorry I was looking at the Yara report in detail and misinterpreted - the point I should have made is that with earth based resources that have to be mined a fertiliser company needs continuity of supply - therefore there is risk if they run out of one component that they won't be able to supply to produce NPK fertiliser - so they always assessing this risk.
Therefore, they need multiple sources of supply from around the world in case one source of supply becomes unavailable. For example - Yara are having problems with a new Potash mine in Ethiopia at the moment so they may be looking for alternative sources elsewhere.
“and it is information like that which is contained in the post which you refer to that matters a lot more than (random) speculation and conjecture”
Hopefully. But as Tina Turner might sing were she in the potash business - ‘what’s phosphate got to do with it?
As Myo acknowledged, good digging for the Norwegian/Qatari connection, but, - despite some understanding and appreciation for blends - I’m not immediately seeing the connection between Yara’s search for phosphate (P) and our plan to produce potash (K).
per ardua ad astra
Trinityman - Yes, once again I couldn’t agree more with you, and it is information like that which is contained in the post which you refer to that matters a lot more than (random) speculation and conjecture - to those of us who are watching our investment very carefully here, and no doubt using a number of different sources of information with which to help guide any decisions. I’ve added again in the last week and now have an average in single figures, with a holding very close to seven figures so the next two weeks are definitely going to be very interesting indeed.
I’ll refrain from commenting on all other matters in the last two weeks or so since there have been more than a few irrational comments and intimations from a number of sources.
All of course in my own opinion.
Good luck as always.
Chilting - I have you on my long-time list of posters to follow and I've noticed the work you've been putting into this lately and it is much appreciated. I always find your posts balanced and considered, which makes a welcome change. Your 16.35 post gives us a fair bit to chew on.
I think we should all prepare for heavy dilution, but this has to be better than the 'unthinkable' if this potential partnership comes off.
The end of the month can't come soon enough!
As an additional pointer item ,Quatar is largest Glencore institutional investor .
O to be a fly on the wall?...
chilting.......very interesting re Yara, the Norwegian SWF & or course the Qatari influence........good research!!
As regards the phosphate.....can you explain....
I enjoy reading your posts as, like you, I am an optimist and believe that funding will be in place to ensure the mine is built and the TORP’s fulfilled. As a realist I accept that this may incur further dilution and may end up with 14b shares in issue.
However, once the 14mt of product is being delivered, the company is making £1.1b profit and £700m is allocated as distributable profits, providing a dividend of 5p per share based on 14b shares, there is no way the share price is going to be languishing at 20p as that would give a yield of 25%. More likely the equity income fund managers will pile into this share until it reaches a more sensible yield of 5%, resulting in a share price of £1. So long term shareholders will see a capital return on their investment and a reasonable dividend.
The main point is that until we know the degree of dilution there is no way of knowing what will happen to the SP.
What may be great news for SM and the project need not be good news for long term investors - in my experience dilution has always been much worst than expected - especially when the company involved is running short of funds - but it will be great if I am proved wrong..
Even with more equity being issued, it will mean that the company can continue to move the project forward and that in time LTH's will get the rewards we have all been patiently waiting for so even a little bit of dilution equals very nice returns for LTH's ultimately.
I would take that over the other alternatives which could leave LTH's with nothing, the most important thing at this point is getting the construction completed then the true value will start to show through for investors.
What your trying to say Yuri,Is that the city are watching daft posts Jonesy putting on .and they will short the company more,on Monday morning ?
I think it looks like we are heading for a deal that involves more equity being issued - it is very important that investors realise the implications of that regarding dilution - it may be a very ling time before we see our investment reach a break even point.
My sentiments exactly,post recommended.
casapinos Re: ... it may be that SXX is the only company on the main market where PI's hold a majority...
That's why it's been so game-focused target by some interested party: low concentration ratio and huge pool of inexperienced decision-makers, so easy to manipulate.
Lovely research Chilting, the pieces of the jigsaw seem like they may fit perfectly, we shall all know within the next 14 trading days one way or another anyway but it's fair to say that everything is looking much more positive at this point.
The Muntajat deal actually links to two of SM's shareholders the Qatar Investment Authority and the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund.
The Muntajat production company QAFCO is a joint venture between fertiliser giant Yara and Industries Qatar - Yara own 25%.
The Norwegian Government have a 36.2% stake in Yara and their Pension Fund has another 6.5%
In their 2018 annual report Yara identified lack of Phosphate fertiliser as a potential risk in their supply chain - they also said that they were actively looking for more supplies of specialist phosphate fertiliser.
lovelyboy Remember the vote is share -based so its the total number of shares voted for or against a motion that decides it not the number of shareholders who vote either way.Having said that, it may be that SXX is the only company on the main market where PI's hold a majority.
Yes, certainly a case of Turkey's voting for Christmas but the alternative would probably be no Christmas at all - wipe out.
Sorry if this a dumb question. I have my tin hat on just incase....
If there was a deal that wiped out PI's or even diluted the share allocation would this need to go for a vote. I've been researching the percentage of private investors in SM and its very hard to put a definate figure on it, but a Conservative estimate is 55%. That's a lot of people to keep on side and PI's would vote accordingly. This would help drive any offer towards a realistic market cap.
Similar thing happened to me with inmarsat which has been taken private. All investors got to vote. In that case the sp hadn't dropped 80% so it was voted through.
I agree with you bellers, if the news hits at 7am then it's only right that the investors who have taken the most risk by buying before the news are rewarded the most so anyone else waiting on the sidelines, dependant on how good the news is, may well have to pay 12/15p + to buy in. Could be a very exciting rest of this month sp wise thats for sure!
One thing I’m pretty certain of is when this share changes on any positive news, if you aren’t in you won’t get in quick enough to ride the rise because the good old algorithms will slow the trades. I’ve noticed that before when the volumes are high. I’m never sure whether it’s engineered that way or the servers can’t handle the volume. But, good luck everyone when it occurs. IMO it will not be long.
"Qataris are the richest buggers in UAE"
Both Qatar and United Arab Emirates are completely independent sovereign countries.
I Think you could be right
You joke but you may not be far off the mark
Qataris are the richest buggers in UAE these days, achieved through aggressive growth which they're still building on, including agriculture which could also bring down the heat there. Trees, humidity blah blah.
They've now signed up with sxx when they're other companies a little closer (geographically) to UAE digging for this miracle stuff. I have little doubt they may just decide to go all in if financial difficulties arise to stop sxx in its tracks. They knew the situation we're now in at the time of signing the contract. Why would they even bother unless they intend to see SXX succeed.
I think they could go one step further and go all in. 500 million is chump change to them for starters, and to secure their agricultural goals and create their oasis would be one up on SA. THEY AIN'T THE BEST OF FRIENDS
Just my humble opinion
March, but you knew that JR