Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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Surely this has got to start moving when production and revenue really bed's in. Long before full production is reached the business plan must be almost entirely derisked. For lake 1 anyway.
Maybe for a bagger they need to prove lake 2 can be brought online without any unfortunate funding f'ups.
Hi Tony, the CEO is on twitter updating on progress again and all going to plan which is encouraging.
He reconfirms the June quarter for first revenues. This is slightly confusing as the Q2 is April to June so essentially he is saying the rev will come in June.
Also rechecked a few presentations on SO4 website.
The 245kt pa amount is a 63% EBITDA margin at $550 per tonne so c£60m. Based on a conservative valuation that should see a £300m valuation - over 50% upside.
Most recent presentation does show that this amount will not be reached until June 2022 though - 2 amounts in 2021 (June and Dec) appear to be c100kt each based on the graph . So June should produce $50m rev and same in Dec (revenue not profit).
The market is full of stocks with upside potential at the moment so it isn't hard to see why we are out of favour at this time when your money can be held is stocks with less turbulent back story. As the market tops out as it always does the hunt for value will return to stocks like SO4.
For now it is a question of sitting tight and waiting for transformational news to turn from a projection to a fact.
IMHO
Thanks guys that's really helpful. I agree about the sentiment due to the last placing but sentiment can be fickle and I think if they can get the first lake to a place where it can fund the the next one this will be a multibagger. So let's hope the momentum keeps up on the construction/production side and the SP will follow.
Hi, i think i had £50m EBITDA per annum based on 1 lake based on previous presentations.
Even on the lowest PE ever of 5 that's a £250m valuation. Based on a PE of 10 that's £500m. Medium term target is 3 lakes so there is massive upside potential.
Clearly last placing/dilution has hurt sentiment but eventually the numbers will talk
245ktonnes @c.500usd per tonne. Per annum.
C. 60% ebitda if memory is correct.
Quite attractive.
Out of curiosity has anyone here done a calculation to see how much income would be achieved once the plant is in production at full capacity? Would be interesting to do a sp prediction based on a moderate PE ratio and see where we are in comparison
I wonder if some PIs misunderstood something Tony said in a recent interview when he said commisioning would finish and sales in the "June quarter". Maybe some took that to mean there is a delay till June itself, rather than April which is obviously in the June quarter.
The interview was on the 23rd and he said full load commisioning was in a few weeks time, so is probably happening around now. Presumably the first shipment of product should follow soon after.
I bought a few more thinking the same..
Most of their full production is already sold, so it's hard to imagine why the lack of value.
The board have c'ckd up a couple of times with raises I think, so maybe there's a fear of another unforseen derailment.
But even that considered I'd expect there to be more upward pressure on the sp. Feels like a sound simple product with growing demand and great margins.
Me too, but I would add a few at these prices because suddenly people will be interested imo
I agree, there product will snapped up given the demand there is for fertilizer. Somewhat ironic the current trading range given the tricky stuff is out the way and there is money in the bank!
AIMHO and DYOR
Is anyone else baffled by the stagnation of the sp?? Commissioning is underway. There's been good PR over the last few months. I just don't understand the lack of interest from the market. I'm happy to hold on as I think there are substantial gains to be made here I just think we should be gaining ground now. Am I just impatient?