The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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Fair comment.
I agree the article is a great bonus as it has huge respected readership...just wish they were more accurate and actually did some proper journo work for a living
The article is still a bonus.
He or she...not really concerned about the gender...just lack of research for a supposedly accurate paper...they're all laughable nowadays
I believe it was a “she” - but I assume that was a typo.
IT was a lazy article from The Times. It's 2 weeks which has already commenced and then rolled out to a further 10 hospitals ...this is from the University Hospital of Southampton website itself posted on the 18th March...there's virtually no decent researched journalism any more, beit The Times or The Sun....he did say Buy though so he got something right
Southampton researchers are trialling an inhaled drug that could prevent worsening of COVID-19 in those most at risk.
The SG016 trial, led by Professor Tom Wilkinson, a consultant in respiratory medicine at University Hospital Southampton and professor of respiratory medicine at the University of Southampton, will initially involve 100 patients at Southampton and up to 10 other NHS hospitals taking part.
Those patients will receive the best current COVID-19 care while inhaling either a placebo or SNG001, a special formulation of the naturally-occurring antiviral protein interferon beta 1a (IFN-ß), for 14 days.
SNG001 has been developed by Synairgen to prevent severe lower respiratory tract illness caused by cold and flu infections when they spread to the lungs.
Phase II clinical trials in asthmatic patients have previously shown that SNG001 is well tolerated, enhances the lungs’ antiviral defences and improves lung function during cold or flu infection.
Southampton researchers have shown that key high risk groups for COVID-19, including older people and those with some chronic diseases have lower levels of IFN-ß, a natural antiviral produced in all our lungs during viral lung infections.
SNG001 delivers extra IFN-ß direct to the lungs, correcting this deficiency and counteracting viral strategies to evade the host’s immune defences by inhibiting natural IFN-ß production.
“COVID-19 is presenting a major challenge to vulnerable patients, the health service and wider society whilst a vaccine will be key, that could some time away, said Prof Wilkinson. “Right now we need effective frontline treatments to give doctors the tools to treat the most vulnerable and to help patients recover quickly as the pressure on health systems mounts.”
Responding to the urgency of the pandemic, Synairgen and Prof Wilkinson worked with regulators and Southampton’s research and development department to open the study within weeks.
“We have worked intensively with the relevant authorities and collaborators to enable SNG001 to be assessed in COVID-19 patients,” said Richard Marsden, CEO of Synairgen.
“A successful outcome from this trial in COVID-19 patients would be a major breakthrough in the fight against this coronavirus pandemic.”
Study measures will include World Health Organisation recommended assessments of illness severity and treatment intensity measures alongside standard assessments of safety.
Positive initial results from the 100 patient pilot phase could see the trial expanded to more hospitals, with Synairgen increasing production of the drug in parallel.
Strictly
Listen to the Proactive interview with Richard Marsden, CEO of SNG.
The trials started last week.
Focusing on the last sentence in the excellent article from the Times this morning;
“Synairgen could be on to a key treatment. Clinical trials are notoriously high-risk, but existing data shows its drug is well tolerated. Synairgen should have a part to play in the fightback against the pandemic. Buy.”
Let’s assume that the trial is successful.
Let’s assume that Synairgen are onto a key treatment
Let’s assume they do have a part to play in the fightback against Covid-19
What potential valuation could that lead to?
Fincapp’s recent research note has the following extract;
“Recent data from WHO suggests that c.20% of COVID-19 patients become seriously ill following infection. Assuming that 30-40% of the population is infected with the COVID-19 virus, that implies c.20m infections of which c.4m are expected to become seriously ill. For argument’s sake, let’s suggest that 5% of these patients require antiviral therapy; this would imply a market opportunity of $1bn, assuming that a 10-day course of interferon beta therapy costs c.$5,000.”
This is a $1b market opportunity for the UK only... how many other countries would want the drug? Scaling demand up to Europe + America would result in a potential market of 400m people assuming 40% got the virus. This results in 80m serious infections, and if 5% have antiviral therapy, 4m courses of SNG-001 @ $5000 per course. That would result in sales of $20b...
Giving this scenario even a 5% chance of happening gives a valuation of $1b, and a share price around £5.50.
This will start to be priced in as soon as we hear any positive news - it truly is extraordinary to think you could be a shareholder in a company that could potentially stop the pandemic whilst at the same time make a life changing amount of money. Fingers crossed it works!