The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
What`s your EBITDA estimate then Stud-sters, North of 70% maybe?!
"Let`s see"- well you done called it correct so far sir lol
S
Velo, you're completely right technically. But as I've said previously, those seasonality patterns have certainly been dented over the past year or two with the now exponential growth in cash generation. I won't be surprised if it's your July.
Likewise, my gut is telling me we might see some ignition flaring this week too :)
As I said, let's see :)
" which I've see before and recognise it as the SLP ignition being ignited."
---------------
Wouldn't disagree with that.
My only concern is, will it ignite before June closes or ignite on cue inside July :)
However, the bearishness of the pure seasonality data for June alone, was at its most extreme by Friday's close.
I'm willing to wager this ain't dipping below £1.20 again anytime soon, if at all.
On my sword etc etc.
But this was tickling last week is a classic SLP fashion, odd patterns of buys and sells which I've see before and recognise it as the SLP ignition being ignited.
We will soon see :)
Velo your posts are absolute quality, thank you!
I'm going by your analysis and hoping for a below £1.20 final buy point in the next week, after already doing some sizeable buys (at least in respect of my portfolio) at £1.27 and £1.24. Then bring on July and August.
Cheers, Ross
" So Chinese reducing Rh stockpiles too ? "
--------------
Mark, there's so much story telling coming out of China I'm just ignoring it now. Fairly sure that assertion came from a forum poster, as can't find the link. The Chinese authorities are up in arms over the entire metals market with some Chinese traders refusing to give their name to the media, where others do, because the scare story fits with the Chinese narrative, such as:
" The stockpile reductions are so large I've not seen anything like it in many years ",
and that was for the basic metals markets/alu, copper, zinc etc., And it was along the lines of "China is planning". Nor are the Chinese authorities revealing any quantities.
As far as SLP is concerned - that's had nil impact apart from the odd day the PGM market thanked the Chinese for offerring cheap bargains and then carried on as before.
It's a narrative that's designed to control the herd.
- SLP, I'm expecting a 12%+ uplift in July
and a blow your socks off 23%+ uplift in August.
The Chinese will have no say in preventiing that, or near-circa that.
In general, everything that was highlighted for SLP at the beginning of the year has occurred like clockwork. Should July and August also perform as suggested above, then it will be a massive fail for the Chinese. They might think they control the PGM market but they will learn differently - they don't.
If you are pretty sure Rhodium is not on the list then I would acquiesce to your research as I have no interest In the Chinese narrative, nor am I researching the Chinese narrative.
The supercycle in PGM's will continue on regardless of story telling Chinese.
They're making zero impact on SLP's SP.
Thanks Velo.
So Chinese reducing Rh stockpiles too ? We'll have to wait and see how that goes then. Offloading crucial deficit metals sounds plain daft but what do I know.
TBTT banned? I read on THS and thought that odd. He always struck me as a good bloke, and I liked his posts. Doesn't strike me as the sort of poster who would receive a long ban??
I know if you get a direct hit on the MM's, admin doesn't like it, and they'll ban you. As for why he would get a ban, haven't a clue. Life ban, what's he done to deserve that ? multiple i.d posting, no, doesn't sound right to me. If someone starts a reinstate petition I'll sign. Bring back TBTT!
That's a very interesting perspective, thank you for sharing, Velo.
(Part 2. Concludes) > > >
. . . I find basket prices influencing ultra short term trend lines almost as speedily as the many numerous posters evaluating the latest changes in basket prices. So the trends in SP's do reflect the basket price changes. No argument there. But it does suggest that basket prices are cyclical too.
Potential proof? Wait until August and if events transpire as expected (August is suggesting it will be the far greater month for all parties involved) there's bound to be posts highlighting it's all because basket prices/Rhodium, have risen over July/August as the reason, even though they can only post so after the fact and not beforehand.
Also it's curious that a downbeat June seems to dog more than just SLP annually, since this latest super cycle took off years ago, suggesting to me, that some stocks like SLP lend themselves extremely well to seasonal data appearing to impact the SP at regular intervals.
So the effects of this cycle are there to be seen in several forms - not just by what action the Chinese take.
Who's to say that the Chinese apparent random reducing of stockspiles of PGM's when at high market prices, doesn't itself follow on from some unintentional cycle following?
- Or maybe the Chinese are well aware of seasonal flucations and deliberately act at seasonal low points to exacerbate the situation ostensibly in their view, to their advantage?
Although I've played with seasonality at arm's length from time to time, I've never used seasonality data this hard and fast before on any of my investing strategies, but PGM stocks appear to fit well - so far at least :)
PS. This strategy v dangerous if the supercycle crashes fast or disintegrates within 12 months - then it's pure trend following only, for me.
PPS. Not in any way recommending this approach or encouraging it. Has the potential to be ruinous. It just 'fits' with current events.
--------
Not back home until late next week, so a big update then, or sometime ASAP after the close of the 30th June month end.
Agricole @
" Hi Velo, why do you think SLP will outperform JLP and THS? "
----------------
By outperform I'm referring solely to the % gains in the SP alone.
I hold that view derived from seasonal, cyclical, monthly data. (The closing price from one full month end to the closing price of the next month end - over 5 years - or more if necessary).
And the reason of why choose that strategy?
- Because PGM's are consensually agreed to be in a longer term super cycle. So the unconventiality is my trying as near as is possible, to observe repeating "cycles" and results are . . . so far, so good :)
(Using trend following for the longer term cyclical progress).
And to answer your question more directly: because SLP are 'seasonally' suggesting a greater % SP performance over July and August than either THS or JLP will achieve.
Post should end there, but handy for me to piggyback on your post by expanding a little further:
More Guru screens (in Stocko at least) favour SLP by a greater number than they do THS or JLP. However it's not top ranking fundamentals I'm trying to measure but sentiment.
Seasonal, cyclical metrics are stronger in SLP than they are for the other two. It's not a contest but a measurement of SLP's market sentiment.The other two stocks are included for balance comparisons.
The starting point for this exercise is the closing price of June in all three stocks. SLP is the stronger responsively, than the other two, so really I shouldn't include those, only SLP. But we'll soon see if that's folly or whatever :)
It's been said, as one might reasonably agree, that you can't rely on this strategy because the basket price is so crucial to the companies involved and moreso, that the Chinese have been reducing physical stocks held of Rhodium et al, and thus lowering demand etc., and is an unknown that can't be factored in, in advance.
That is the fundamentalist view but it carries an implied, unconscious bias, in that the Chinese reducing stocks supplies and manipulating prices must be 100% a random influence.
Well, is it? - the Chinese acting randomly?
I find basket prices influencing ultra short term trend lines almost as speedily as the many numerous posters evaluating the latest changes in basket prices. So the trends in SP's do reflect the basket price changes. No argument there. But it does suggest that basket prices are cyclical too.
Potential proof? Wait until A
(Continues) > > >
AFAGames @
" well done with waiting out, ..."
Thanks Fun/Games; (also a v good topping-up point by yourself too) but I did succumb a little bit, with part-buy tranches.
My own, quietly held, self-imposed rule of discipline, was for me to be only 'allowed' to buy during, and from the v last day of the month of June. That was supposed to be sacrosanct.
But have sneaked in part-buys on all three - with still a full 3 days to go!
------------
Stoodio - Ha! Thanks for the compliment but I'm well overdue a full custard pie in the face, so hold that thought in abeyance, until such time as the cows come home :)
------------
Mark/inv - Tee hee! Any chance you could use that insurance to get TigerByTheTail reinstated?
Apparently he's been banned 'for life', which I find hard to believe as the average ban lasts for 2 weeks only.
- Life bans are for such as using multiple ID poster names etc., or more serious matters.
(Was once banned myself, for 2 weeks - for swearing.
I blamed auto correct :))
-----------
Hi Velo, why do you think SLP will outperform JLP and THS?
Should we club together and get Velo insured, in case anything happens to him?
Now there’s a man that knows what’s up :)
Quick post whilst time.
Purchases in all 3, only days old and already 2 of the 3 in profit. THS is lower so added again today lowering the average slightly on that.
SLP is one of the 2 in profit and the stock with the most buying ahead of me. Have days only left to get there + a couple in early July. (JLP the other in profit). Have all July to finalise JLP.
But have to be tiydied up by end of this month + maybe 2/3 days in July only for SLP & THS.
Not subscribing to some thread posts on the super cycle in Rh ending; they're jumping the gun IMO. Strong shorter term and intermediate term bear trend in Rh yes, but predominant longer term tends still bullish. So currently on available evidence a temporary thing. SLP will lead the gang out of this. THS to lag SLP's performance in July although both 'should' be bullish (IMO).
JLP to remain in the doldrums through July but outperform THS to the year end, after July, but none will get close to SLP performance to the year end. All highly IMO.
well done with waiting out, I have pulled the trigger at 119.90, just as it got below 120 :)
Typo!
118 As a sell not a buy as I posted. Rushing no time to post really. 118 as a mid price still on the radar by month close.
" Was waiting for 118 and there it was."
-As a buy. Expecting 118 as a mid price. We'll see. Happy with the starter tranche.
Time only to post .. Just bought in a new ISA separate to my main accounts SLP for 119.15. First tranche only. Several more to come between now and first few early days of July.
Was waiting for 118 and there it was. Won't be surprised if it slices lower before end of month. Anyway the experiment is away and sailing. More buys on all 3 to come but nice entry points. SLP like a Swiss clock. If the strategy is on course for the lows then it follows that it stands a good chance to be on course for the blow your socks off months :) which are imminent. IMO only.