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Yes believe you are correct AqueaS,
These modest gains today are really against the sea of red on the main market today.
Hi belgrano, it is fair to say that just about every early revenue generating growth stock has fallen by similar margins creating lots of choice for investors. What differentiates both Skin and Opti from most other growth stocks is the certainty of some positive short term news; the Croda launch in the case of Skin and maybe decent subscription numbers for axisbiotix when the March Half Year Report is produced, whilst Opti will surge on Sweetbiotix launch news, good financials in the EOY Unaudited report expected next month, and of course if the value of its Skin investment bounces back.
Here's hoping for a double celebration by end of March
Lot of investors and I dare say traders have been watching this stock closely during the drop, however no one likes to try and "catch the falling knife", certainty some signals coming out they we may have at last bottomed out, and we are seeing some buying returning. Know many on here will let out a sign of relief, and I expect many others will purchase more shares here than they sold.
The lack of patience and short-termism of many PIs is mind blowing. If only people use both sides of their brain and start making well researched and rational decisions rather than doing emotional play…
The current situation and fear of the PIs is perfect for price manipulations by MMs (look on how low volumes they do drop the SP). Sad… but that is the life of AIM :)
There are NO delay to Croda launch. Thank you Elric for reminding this here again. The company must RNS if something material goes wrong. It’s legal obligation. Moreover, Stuart would not risk his reputation – how the PIs do not understand this.
And even if there was the case of delay, was it worth SUCH a drop in SP (having in mind the general progress of the company and endless future possibilities)?
Unfortunately, I do not have any spare funds now for taking this low SP advantage. But I do stay completely relaxed as a long-term holder here.
Good luck and GLA. And thank you for many valuable contributions!
elrico, accept there has been no delay to the planned launch date which was always scheduled for an unannounced date in 2022. There is some confusion though over the completion date of the scale-up to 20000 litres which is a vital step on the commercialisation journey and has not yet concluded when the inference from previous SBTX comms was that scale-up would be achieved in Sep 2021. Personally, I believe there has been a misunderstanding over the September date and it represented the start of the final manufacture scale-up rather than its conclusion, further evidenced by the reported handover from Sederma to Croda premises to commence the process. Consequently, whilst final scale-up is on the critical path, it has not necessarily impacted parallel activities such as marketing in preparation for the launch date
Al,
There is no delay to Croda/Sederma launch. I commented on this after speaking to Stuart, querying, among other things, the significance of Croda's claim they had discovered "enhancements to the lysate" as they upscaled?https://lemminginvestor.substack.com/p/skinbiotherapeutics-plc-360
Hi AquaeS,
Believe that refers to the actual nuts and bolts and testing of the production line which is not effected so in essence correct. Believe if they think its much more valuable than previously says to me negotiations with top customers would take longer.
I know the team believed that if customers viewed it much better than Sedermas flagship product matrixyl "things could get very silly very quickly" .. Thats an actual quote from our team. Thing is we knew the production line was been built, but not timelines of product sales and releases. Saying income in 2022, gives a very wide margin, however as our company are not calling the shots here, they cannot influence and will probably be the last to know. Some investors who sent me notes believe some share price action very suspicious (See mr. 2k sell put in a brief visit today), and if Croda or their agents were behind it in any way, its in their interests to keep us in the dark a lot longer. I actually don't hold to this viewpoint, but it certainly not impossible at all.
The issue is that there has been no acknowledged delay Belgrano, and we were told in the EOY results no impact on scale-up
"Throughout this collaboration, Sederma has identified additional potential scientific and marketing claims for the end ingredient. The eventual claims will be an important component of the launch and long-term commercial success of the ingredient. To this end, Sederma is continuing its lab work to further substantiate these additional potential claims. This work is not impacting the manufacturing scale-up. The Group continues to anticipate 2022 as the period for initial royalty revenues."
Believe the delay is due to the additional value that's been seen and effects re-valuated potentially upwards. Its not unheard of that when you increase bacterial strain quantities in digestors that the bacterial effects become stronger.
Almost like Darwins principle where there are lots of food and growth species become larger and stronger.
This value upgrade could be quite a lot, but has to be substantiated, repeatable and sustainable. Cannot tell a customer one price then up it two months later, so better to get everything proven before moving forward. Its not the construction side of things at all.
It seems pretty clear there’s been a delay in the Croda project, that’s not unusual at all for projects of this nature.
I think what doesn’t help is SBTX’s failure to acknowledge this, rather than pretending all is on track. With hindsight I’m sure SA regrets ever talking about the ‘beauty parade’ for Q4. We are in a news vacuum and the sp is paying the price. Brighter days should be ahead.
Cliostock, yes of course whilst sentiment has changed the company still has two disruptive products on its hands which will lead to the anticipated revenues that will warrant a much higher share price for the patient investor.
However, it is not just sentiment driving the downward spiral, we now have institutionalised high and rising inflation where early low revenue generating growth companies are unable to pass on their higher costs through sales; look at similar pullbacks at Ceres and ITM Power for instance.
Also, whilst Stuart has said there has been no slippage in Croda's Project Plan, then what that tells me is that the company built in extended "safety" float into their plans; for instance when it came to completion of final scale-up originally the language focused on the earliest date it would happen as late as Aug 21 and subsequently is now directing investors towards the end of the float period . So, it is understandable that investors feel things have changed and certainly they have because any delay in achieving profitable revenues means higher costs that cannot be passed on.
"In the update, SkinBioTherapeutics said partner Croda and its active ingredients arm, Sederma, “continue to progress the development” of the firm's SkinBiotix technology as the basis of a new skincare product.
The project is progressing through the manufacturing scale-up. It hopes to be able to produce 20,000 cubic metres by next month, which would be the final step towards commercialisation."
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/958099/skinbiotherapeutics-gears-up-for-launch-of-psoriasis-treatment-in-q4-product-could-have-applications-across-a-range-of-skin-conditions-958099.html
Nov Results RNS
"During the course of the year Sederma updated SkinBioTherapeutics that it had made significant progress against the key collaboration milestones. Lysate production had been optimised and analytical sample screening and formulation work had been completed. Manufacturing scale-up from 1 litre to 600 litres had been completed successfully and with the formal handover of the project from Sederma in Paris to Croda's manufacturing facility at Ditton, near Widnes, the final scale-up to 20,000 litres is now being progressed. This is the capacity required to mass produce the SkinBiotix® product at industrial levels to market to Sederma's portfolio of 12,000+ global cosmetic customers."
Well said cliostock.
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. An investing cliche maybe, but the underlying lesson may apply. The price is free falling because of sentiment. I believe what Stuart says, and in his last interview with Elric he was VERY clear. “No information leaks from this company, it never has and it never will”. So we know people are selling based on their thoughts and fears, not material facts, because there aren’t any material facts out there about sales of Axis or Croda progress. Yes, the board should certainly be thinking hard about how to address this investor sentiment, but don’t be fooled into thinking this isn’t exactly the same company it was when the price was at 75p. Would you have sold your shares for 32p when the price was at 75p? The only thing that has changed are those thoughts and fears.
Yes, it’s pulling back toward my average, hence capital protection as I don’t want to lose money.
It’s bitter sweet Farris - I don’t hold many stocks at once. I don’t believe in it. Only buy what I believe in. With this, the fall has been too consistent with very little news. I hope it works out.
It’s your choice, you only lose money if you sell, dependant on entry price.
Purely protecting capital, Farris. It’s a wise thing to do on AIM.
Farris - I am invested but will sell. The 5%/day is unsustainable in the short term.
Invest, yes, but don’t sell
Farris - thanks for the very typical response. I bought for the many reasons I have posted in the past.
I will invest when it settles down. The fall is silly - it’s losing 5% everyday.
Beinthelead
FFS don’t be another weak shareholder, why did you buy in the first place?
It’s such a shame and a disappointment. There may be an opportunity to buy in the future, but I’ll be selling up at the first opportunity. Genuinely sad to see this one slip - good luck all.
In this era of raging inflation it's all about positive news and financials whilst the rhetoric has gone from speculation around 25000 subscriber targets and Croda beauty parade announcements at the end of 2021 to soft launches and croda news sometime in 2022 so little wonder the sp has dropped.
I remain a substantial holder here but unlike others have not sold down my Opti holding to fund increased holdings here as the knife was falling and realistically, Opti with its EOY announcement due in Feb and Sweetbiotix announcement now finally imminent, is favourite to spectacularly re-rate in the short term
Wac
It is relentless at the moment - strange pattern, as Bel says, a raft of small sells in the low thousands, then the larger trade just after hours. Also, a number of very low sells (15,16,17 shares) which has been a feature over the past few days almost as if trying to manipulate the number of sell trades.
Almost at the stage where they will have flushed out the weak holders and everyone else will be sitting tight.
I remain invested - I trust Stuart, the Axisbiotix product works, Croda should bring good news and the other three pillars are progressing nicely according to updates.
Just a shame that Skin is listed on the AIM cesspit but we all know how sentiment can shift quickly. I’m holding for better days.
Hi Wac ,
I've never seen it with this stock before but I have with others. I also received some private e-mails where the sender thinks its coming from a company or its agents who have something to gain. For me no comment on that one.
However the repeated 2k sells point at deliberate attempts to try and spook investors to sell by high numbers of sells, although it seems they are running out of stock to actually sell , hence the low volumes.
On other stocks seen large players quietly watch the drop, then it's a case of "thanks very much", as large volumes snap up dirt cheap stock for peanuts, even the "on the bell" sell to try a get a small drop straight away does seem deliberate.
I'm holding fast right now.
Can anyone explain to me the high number of sales at such low volumes ? Is this MM's driving the price down ?