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Interesting topic Phat, the discussion of how the market will react to different levels of reported revenue to June. It got me thinking about how the market is probably punishing the uncertainty, given that we have no other forecast. I can understand why many would have sold out on the news, but I too have faith in Stuart and I’m also sure he knows what we LTH’s are going through right now. It will come good, it just needs time. If there was ever a share I have been confident would double a new investors money in 1-2 years, this would be the one.
Good debate here everyone, I suspect Stuart is well aware of what the miss has done to sentiment and the share price. It will be very interesting to read the end of June figures. I have my faith in Stuart, if the miss is between 10-35% then I can see the share price shooting up, anything it is to be expected. TW mentioned he predicted £600,000. As one of you stated, the product is fantastic it’s just it isn’t known wide enough.
Toyin, I now see your point and I hope you are right. It could well be the case as Aquae points out that the US split is the explanation. The business seems to provide some kind of report or update every 3 to 4 months on average so hopefully we will hear sometime in June what has been going on. I just hope when that RNS lands that it contains the information we need so it’s not left to individual perceptions of hidden meanings. I think that has cost investors money and damaged sentiment.
Aquae, possibly but the nomad would have needed actual sales at that point not an “expected” uptake. The question is when the nomad gave the go ahead on the rns, did we have sales of £50k, £100k, £200k, etc, etc, at what figure does the nomad think, yes £1.2m is achievable in the next 18 weeks. Anyway we shall all find out in the next few months.
On the NPF I’m sure I read that they had 6 million members and help over 3 million annually, but at the moment I think we have a long way to go before we need to worry about that.
Toyin, I am suggesting to you that the difference is down to the US orders which are separately accounted for and that the only reason the £1.2M Jun forecast was allowed to go out in Feb was because the hiring of influencers and US take-up was expected to be far more rapid than occurred. It wouldn't have helped that schoolboy errors were made regarding the actual numbers of the US National Psoriasis Membership, repeated in more than one podcast as being circa 8 million when in fact that represents the number of psoriasis sufferers in the US who will not of course all be members of the association which lists the following stats:
409,808 U.S. mailing addresses
61 percent female; 39 percent male
46 percent diagnosed with psoriasis
29 percent diagnosed with psoriatic arthritis
25 percent caregiver for someone with psoriasis and/or psoriatic arthritis
Average age is 49; 54 percent are 35-60 years old
Aguae, yes I get all of what you say, but we are trying to work out if the order numbers bear any relation to overall sales (I know that sounds stupid) but it just doesn’t add up.
On Feb 17th the nomad must have seen absolute evidence that £1.2m was achievable, at that point in time we were on order #500. Now irrespective of influencers programs and when and where they may have been up to on the Feb 17th, the fact is we where on order #500, we are now on order # 989 (as of 18/5). Even if we start the influencer program from Feb 1st (order # 440) 440 x 335% = 1914 subscribers in total and we are on order no 989. Now I am willing to concede that all sales before this were not all subscribers, and most repeat orders only happen every 2 months (most popular subscription) but still the order numbers don’t stack up.
Toyin, sticking to the information published in the Feb and Mar RNS, in March we were told that sales up to end of Dec 2021 were just £22K following a soft launch and this figure is unlikely to have risen much prior to the influencers kicking in by Feb 2022, indeed we were told subscriptions had risen by 335% so in Feb Stuart would have known that revenues were unlikely more than £100k. So the question is, how could he have pushed out a statement in Feb that £1.2M was still achievable, and I believe the answer lies here (also from Feb RNS) "The influencer campaign in 2022 is a core strand to driving consumer sales and is already showing signs of raising the profile of the product with potential users. A number of influencers have been signed up and are starting to use the product. The engaged and targeted influencers all have psoriasis themselves and the target is to have signed up influencers with a combined following of over 1.4 million people on multiple social media platforms when the programme is fully operational. The aim is that these individuals use and actively promote AxisBiotix-Ps™ on their social media feeds to their respective followers. Social media influencers such as these can have a direct impact on consumers purchasing decisions and are followed closely by the psoriatic community. Since the influencer campaign launched alongside the online advertising programme, the Company has seen a substantial increase in social media referrals"
Just 1% take up from 1.4M followers would result in 14,000 new subscribers making the £1.2M by June still a possibility. However, by March only 10 influencers had been signed up with just 100,000 followers, 1% sign up from this audience provides just 1000 new subscribers, hence the "material target miss" statement having to be pushed out. From March RNS "The influencer activity, along with highly targeted Facebook/Instagram ads, created using the influencer content and their audience's data, started in February 2022. The influencers have, so far, posted once, showcasing the product and highlighting its benefits. The content has been delivered to over 100,000 of the influencers' followers and produced an extremely positive 20% overall "engagement rate".
Toyin, I think the forecast figure can be misleading as you don't need that many subscribers to hit it. But I can also see why missing that figure has spooked people as they believed it should have been easy. Time will tell.
Aquae, The overwhelming majority of trust pilot reviews are from GB, I'm not sure if this is indicative of sales but I thought trust pilot was fairly popular in the States. Maybe more so for different kinds of goods/services.
Axis still has bags of potential, I just don't think it's had any real exposure yet. We are still only a few months in after all.
Aguae, I understand what your saying but the website is run by a third party and we don’t know how it is set up.
Let’s look at this from a different angle, If you were the nomad what sales figure would you want to see from the board in feb to ok the £1.2m forecast? Bearing in mind it is your duty to protect shareholders.
Toyin, the order numbers are significant in that they are sequentially produced. What you don't know however, is the order size that they represent. Additionally, as the US orders are being separately allocated, we have no idea of the take up there post the influencers doing their work.
No problem Cliostock.
On Feb 17 when the £1.2m was put out we had circa 500 orders showing in the UK. (I know this because I made a purchase on the 15th, I made a purchase on day one and we started at order no 1000 or thereabouts.) Now if you say each order was the maximum value £52.50 that equates to £26,250 (I have not took in to consideration the US or the bogof offer)
There is no way, and I mean no way the nomad or Stuart would put out a forecast of hitting £1.2m by June end if we had £26k in sales at Feb 17th, even if we said the US had done the same and we doubled that figure to £52k, the nomad would need concrete evidence that the £1.2m was achievable at that point (feb 17th), £52k just wouldn’t cut it. You have sold £52k in four and a half months and you think you will do £1.15m in the remaining four and a half months?
I agree with your point that order no’s are relevant for a business and I don’t know why they are doing it, but I am absolutely positive they are. The order numbers are a red herring, I am sure of that.
Please feel free to rip my theory apart, criticism welcomed.
very relevant** (should have proof read!)
Sorry Toyin, I’m sure your comment is as logical as the rest of your posts, but you are going to have to walk me through that one… To me they are very irrelevant for a business that sells one product at one price, but I’m happy to be wrong!
I believe the order numbers are irrelevant, do the maths.
My comment isn’t helpful because I can’t cite a source but it has been discussed before in the past that the order numbers to the US are separate. Doesn’t make much difference to me anyway because we know the US orders have been slow and orders clearly haven’t been explosive in the U.K. so I doubt it would make any meaningful impact adding the US numbers on. I’m happy to be realistically negative about Axis sales because 1.) I trust Stuart to bring them up to a good level in a reasonable timeframe, and 2.) The company has so much more to offer than just Axis, it’s just disproportionately in the limelight because it’s currently the only source of revenue. In fact, I bet if it hadn’t even launched yet the SP would be 50p+ just on the promise. Such is the logic of the markets!
How do you know this? Do you have a link that you can share?
been confirmed that USA and Europe on differencing numbering system. so can only see one half of the story
Has anyone had a recent order number they would like to share? A month ago I had 1780 and that was after the influencers had kicked off.