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chart saying it see u there boys
??
Look at that 20s now soon 18s then 12
DJ,
We obviously have a very different opinion on the importance of knowing costs and on the responsibilities of management to shareholders -i.e. management.
Yes I very much expect the company to calculate a cash cost. I would expect it in a ramp up because I would expect them to know it at all times.
As you are currently into telling me how I am come across may I return the favour. You are coming across as patronising - and wrong.
Best wishes,
Prof
My reasech is based on facts of rmm presation inflation petrol prices electric price. And current market conditions. That enough to understand everything.
Hi MB,
However in April our costs were mostly above 4.6, never below 4.3 and peaked at over 4.8. Today we are at 3.77. That is why where the price of copper goes is in my view now so critical to RMM. You are right however that our output is significantly up and hopefully even more so for this month.
Best wishes,
Prof
GGG,
Thanks for your well thought out post and re-sharing the previous year's costs. I know that we have these retrospectively however my concern remains over the lack of visibility over current costs. When TB was asked about them on the last call he did not provide additional clarity. We have had generic statements about being cost neutral but I would like to see the detail. I would also like to see guidance for production costs per pound but also AISC. Most miners provide a cap and collar for the year on both of these. Now I get that with the turnaround we are operating in a fast moving environment however I would still like management to have a stab at providing them. If they don't know even a bracket for expected costs then shame on them. If they know if but don't share it with us as shareholders then that is equally poor.
I don't broadly disagree with your workings on the numbers although I worry whether inflation could have a slightly bigger impact. We know RMM have to truck the ore a significant distance and with the inflation in oil that will therefore hurt us more than most.
Roll on those production figures!
Best wishes,
Prof
Moon, I've never known anyone to be told so often how much of a f@cking m@r@n they happen to be and still come back posting more h@lfwitted dribble. There's literally not a single poster here who doesn't regularly abuse you. And guess what, it's because you're a complete w@ste of space. Maybe join one of those crypto boards that I've never heard of as I'm sure they're full of people like you. And ffs go and see someone, as you're clearly not right in the head.
Dj, I believe Analytical first posted those numbers. The opinion is mine though :)
So now all take it serous that external factors effect rmm what a suprize hahah. Rmm not making profit and we going to borrow all over again
Hi Professor, bottom of post are the C1 costs and production levels quoted for previous years. My views when this was originally posted are as follows:
- We've produced over 2ktn of copper to the end of May. If we add another 650tn for June (2.65ktn H1 total), then it puts our H1 production run-rate as identical to 2019 when C1 costs were $2.58. So even accounting for high inflationary pressure this year, we should still be around $3.
- Regarding H2, should we produce nearer 4ktn we should be able to drive down C1 costs closer to $2 and exit the year with a circa $2.50 average C1 cost (imo).
- Above numbers are why many are forecasting $15-20m profit for the year.
As you've pointed out, most important is whether June production is the starting gun for our sp. If they can demonstrate +650tn then even with copper averaging $4 throughout 2022, and inflationary pressures keeping our C1 at $2.50, we should be able to turn a forward 12 month profit of $15-20m. Apply a ratio of 6 and you arrive at 45-60p valuation (worst / best case). Obviously the Cu price could drop and we average $3.75 for the year, however that would mean circa $3.50 average for H2. With China re-opening, Chile strikes, and stimulus plans kicking in for H2, I'm more confident we'll average circa $4, but could obviously be wrong. Either way if they can show +650tn and retain this level moving forward I do believe C1 guidance for 2022 in September will be quite positive. The future much more so. And certainly enough to warrant a sp in the 30's at a minimum. Not long before we find out if the starting gun is to be fired in the next 7-10 days.
2018 4,187t Cu, 4,189oz Au, C1 costs 3.30
2019 5,299t Cu, 4,887oz Au, C1 costs 2.58
2020 3,769t Cu, 2,819oz Au, C1 costs 3.45
2021 3,418t Cu, 1,805oz Au, C1 costs 4.29
* C1 = cost per lb of Cu ($), net of credits
Even with copper at its current price we shouldn't be anywhere near 21p as this was significantly undervalued at 30p with higher copper price. This copper price is still higher than the hedge from last year.
I agree on your other points, it is difficult to see where copper will go in the short term. I too expect a recession. Hopefully it stays above $3.5.
I would love to share the unfettered optimism of some on this board - but I don't.
That doesn't make me pessimistic about this share - I am just very uncertain.
It seems to me that the cause of the low share price has changed over the past month or so. Throughout last year and earlier this year we were marked down because of uncertainty over output. Could be get enough ore out the ground and then refine it into enough copper to have positive cash flow? At the 7,000 tons p.a we are being guided to, at the previous copper price that was considered a slam dunk and with room to spare.
Rambler Management have played a blinder in getting us to/ nearly to this production position and I believe next year we will be well above the 7,000 (no sure if we will hit it this year but think the market will be ok if the trend remains good). The last month's production was nicely up and I agree with the views that we should be significantly up again this month. For me over 600 is a definite, over 650 probable and over 700 possible (all barring black swans of course).
The problem now is a tumbling copper price which every cent of fall coming straight out of profit. Now if we knew costs clearly then we might feel a little more reassured but we don't have great visibility on them either. Only that we expect them to fall as the tons produced ramps up.
So to me the key factor at the moment for our share price is the price of copper. I know mid term it should do well given its role in the ecological restructuring of the world economy and operating model that will take place. However my worry is the short term. Recession is for me a certainty although a recession in itself is not necessarily something that bad. It just means 2 successive quarters of declining GDP so if you have 2 quarters of -0.1% it matters little (other than we usually expect significant growth) but if we have 2 quarters of -3% then it is clearly very bad. With regards to the green agenda which requires shed loads of copper I am also unsure. On one level we are seeing signs that it may be slowed down as countries focus on other issues (war in Ukraine, cost of living, COVID...) but on another level if there is a serious recession then a public works programme entered on the eco agenda, and therefore needing copper, could be just the ticket.
So I remain unsure of where we are going price wise short term. Like all here I am eagerly waiting the next production results which we should see within the next 10-14 days and hoping there are indeed as good as I am expecting, that copper does not fall further, and that the combination of these two factors is enough to turn the trend upwards.
Best wishes to all in these nerve testing times,
Prof