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Rusty you're right.... Change occurs ONLY when mindset has been converted....
Thus process takes on average between 18-36 months trust me i have been there involved in a group of companies...
Having been a dedicated senior SCM within Asia it takes longer to convert, this will be similar to Russia but with force and force WILL be required in this geographical location..... But the future is bright just reduce your RISK... Watch the pattern trade the motion....
200MA hit but will it revisit on negativity.... Interim will show but bargain price that's for sure .......
Updownflat, as the bonds that mature in 2022 are $500m alone and there are still a number of convertible bonds, I don't see it. Time will tell. This company has a history of finding things to spend money on. Hopefully times will have changed, but the new lot haven't been in long, so doubt they will have been able to change much yet. A little bit of clarity would be a start.
For the full year 2020, not the interim. On the interim they will have a lower average Gold price but we know htey paid off $60m of the prepaid/Debt. Also the conversion came after the interim so in reality their Debt is around $700m at interim. but by full year this should be down for repayment of another $120m and down by $85m of conversion, so I think full year accounts(March next year) will proably be below $500m.
Rusty,
I bought first at 63p in 2013, and took full part in the 15:1 offering so I have been folowing them for a long time. Even if they do $0 of third party this year they still make $140m cash. We know this is not true though.
Updownflat. It is NEVER that easy with POG, simply because we have to buy in concentrate and the company have already advised we do not make anywhere near as much on concentrate than on our own gold. That being said the results should still be good based on the prevailing gold price, and debt should be down after the convertibles with reduced interest payments. This is POG, though, and hopefully it doesn't happen, but I have got used to expecting the unexpected.
current mkt cap looks ridiculously low with FCF numbers like that
The difference is the price of gold and massively improved margins.
Last year POG made $20m cash flow. This year, 2020, they make $180m based on recent estimates.
Next year, If gold price stays where it is ($1900), they make close to double that.
"Actually this should be fully repaid by the end of the year "
Yes UDF this should be fully repaid by the end of the year - that is exactly what they said in the 2019 Annual Report. This is the third year on the trot that they have taken out one of these (non loan) advances. This started with the very necessary bridge loans to bail IRC out, but since then none of these dodgy loans were reported at the time, they only emerged by reading the small print buried way down in the accounts. For all we know they may have taken out another advance/loan before the old board was kicked out - who knows?
Actually this should be fully repaid by the end of the year from cashflow, so it will only possibly be high for the interim. Maybe the auditor would take a different position.
"as its pre payment for gold to be supplied so is not a debt. A debt is something which has to be repaid,"
Rusty, in 2019 Gazprombank gave us an advance of around $200. This money was paid back later in gold shipments, plus interest of $16m. How is that different to a loan? The fact that we paid them back in gold rather than cash is surely immaterial. This was a short term loan, plain and simple! And as such it should have been reported as debt, imo.
Last years financial report says we paid interest of $16m on these advance payments, and we paid $7.2m the year before. But that is not the end of the story. At the beginning of this year we still had $187m outstanding, to be repaid in regular sums spread over the year. So we probably still have up to one quarter of that ($46m) left to pay plus interest. The interest paid will probably not be declared until the 2020 Annual Report is released at the end of May 2021.
"(d) Including an aggregate of US$187.4 million advance payments received from Gazprombank and Sberbank outstanding as at 31 December 2019. Advance payments are to be settled against physical delivery of gold produced by the Group in regular intervals over the period of up to twelve months from the reporting date based on the sales price prevailing at delivery that is determined with reference to LBMA fixing."
Updownflat, what makes you think that some or all of this has not been paid back. I know some of the money was borrowed or paid upfront, whichever way you want to call it, but, I also know we got that money back when IRC refinanced so I would have thought we would have paid that back. If the other money was used for third party concentrate, I would presume they have now received the gold so that doesn't need repaid, as its pre payment for gold to be supplied so is not a debt. A debt is something which has to be repaid, in this case the company gets the gold they have pre-paid for. So I would be very surprised if its still outstanding. Time will tell.
Workingstiff,
yes unfortunately. Makes no difference to us we already knew since at least April that POG had to repay this. But as a leading authority on debt has called it ‘debt’ I believe it will be called debt.
Just pre warning you get the spin from amurinfo.net.Pavel.xxx.org
UDF How do you get to $700m net debt? Is this a restatement of the interest bearing pre purchases as debt?
Actually I think we were really lucky to get the cure as we proably breeched on other basis in 2019.
Yes,
it does still concern me what will come up in the interim audit but I believe the biggest item will probably be the restatement of debt to $700m. I think the concealment of this and the lack of proper systems and accounting are why the audit companies either declined or made a swift departure. Either way it does demonstrate that they can manage a large scale financial transaction.
If you say so !
We could have used that money to recruit a real good CEO.
Bondholders make no concessions
To sum up in a simplistic way; those who voted to replace the Board are responsible for this penalty and are for some beneficiaries of the penalty. Quite the opposite of many small shareholders. Outrageous !
Let these investors not tell us about ethics
Yes we need these B......s to burn, they have been taking the P... out of us small PI's.
that's good news that we got the waivers..